GEORGIA ON OUR MINDS: A TALE OF TWO SENATE RACES THAT COULD DETERMINE BIDEN’S EFFECTIVENESS

Something of a death struggle rages in Georgia as 2020 fades away and 2021 emerges. Democrats and Republicans have mobilized for runoff elections in two U.S.

Senate races with enormous implications. Those January 5 battles will decide control of the senate and, perhaps, the fate of much of incoming President Joe Biden’s agenda.

The Peach State ended up with these two

contests because its law requires that senators win a majority of the vote, even in a general election. Nobody in either race got a majority on November 3. Historically, Democrats don’t do well in runoff elections in Georgia. With the allure of the presidential race gone, many Democratic-leaning voters don’t show up. Biden’s narrow victory this year notwithstanding, Georgia has been a red state for a long time. Republicans have a structural advantage and much of the political community expects GOP wins in both races. Not every factor, however, points in that direction.

 

The Players

In one race, 33 - year old Democrat Jon Ossoff, a London School of Economics graduate who nearly won a congressional seat in a 2017 special election, faces incumbent Republican David Perdue for a full six - year term. Perdue,71, narrowly missed getting a majority in the general election. He’s seeking his second senate term.

Democrat Raphael Warnock, 51, serves as senior minister at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. The man who occupies Martin Luther King’s pulpit faces Senator Kelly Loeffler, 50, in the race for a two-year term. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appointed Loeffler

earlier this year to fill

the seat of Johnny Isakson, who resigned. Loeffler, a devoted Trump supporter, has extensive business interests, including ownership of the Atlanta Dream of the WNBA.

Corruption charges have dogged the Republican candidates as both have been accused of insider stock trading. They

allegedly sold stocks based on information received in closed-door senate meetings earlier this year about the damage certain industries would suffer in the coronavirus pandemic. In the current polarized political environment, the charges haven’t gotten much traction. Democrats apparently believe the worse about both Perdue and Loeffler and Republicans appear not to care much. Republicans make the usual they’re-too-liberal arguments against Ossoff and Warnock. Again, it’s unlikely the claims make much difference. The races come down to which tribe can get its members to the polls.    

 

The Stakes

When it was all said and done on November 3,

Democrats had 48 U.S. Senate seats (including two independents who affiliate with them) and Republicans 52. If Ossoff and Warnock knock off the Georgia incumbents, Democrats would control the senate by virtue of Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote. With that control, Democrats woul chair  committees and

Democratic leader Chuck Schumer would control the calendar and the ability to bring up bills. He could exercise the powers current majority leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky now wields so ruthlessly.

Control of the senate will say much about Biden’s ability to confirm cabinet and other

officials, make judicial appointments, and fulfill campaign promises on matters like climate change and racial equity. Biden believes he can work with Republicans, but he knows Democratic control of the senate would make

things so much easier and so much more possible. Biden and Harris have campaigned in Georgia for Ossoff and Warnock and one or both of them could make additional appearances before the election.

 

The Campaigns

For Democrats, the races are about turnout. If organizers like 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams can approach duplicating the turnout of black, Hispanic,

narrow win in the Asian, and young voters, especially in the fast growing, rapidly diversifying Atlanta suburbs that gave Biden his residential race, they believe they can win the senate races, despite the structural GOP advantages.

For a long time, Republicans fought among themselves about these runoffs. President

Trump claimed he lost Georgia because of voter fraud, despite a Republican governor and secretary of state. Some normal Trump allies suggested Republican voters should stay home and skip the runoffs because the system was rigged and their votes wouldn’t count. No evidence of that exists, of course; recounts produced the

same result as the initial tally in the presidential race. Still, some people believe Trump and that has created massive upheaval in Republican ranks.

The GOP infighting has subsided. Some trends in the polling have favored Perdue and Loeffler. Though both races remained statistically tied for much of the campaign, the incumbents edged upward in later polling.

Turnout, however, could tip things toward the Democrats. Early voting exceeded expectations and broke records for a runoff election. In the first week, the numbers approached those of the same time frame in the general election. No one knows if voters will sustain that pace, but that’s the goal of Abrams and her cohorts. If they reach it, Ossoff and Warnock have a chance.

Money and campaign workers have flooded

into 

the state. In races with razor thin margins like the polls show, anything can happen. Georgia is on the nation’s political mind and the January 5 outcome means a lot.

The tale is still to be told.

THOUGHTS ON THE NEW ADMINISTRATION’S AGENDA: A LITTLE ADVICE FROM FRIENDS

 

In a month, Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. takes the oath of office as the 46^th President of the United States and Kamala Devi Harris the oath as the 49^th Vice President of the United States.  She becomes the first woman to hold either office.

They take over at a difficult, perilous time. A once-in-a-century pandemic rages, accompanied by devastating economic consequences. The country remains politically and racially divided as killings by police of African Americans continue and criminal justice reform remains undone. Climate change poses an existential threat to the entire planet. Biden and Harris have plenty to do and we have some advice for them on their agenda.

COVID, COVID, COVID
Biden has long acknowledged subduing the Coronavirus pandemic would represent his first and most pressing challenge. It’s difficult not to view the leadership void on COVID-19 as the Trump Administration’s greatest failure. As to Biden’s challenge, we recognize that not only did Trump fail through inaction (e.g., never effectively using the Defense Production Act) and lies (“We’re turning the corner.”), he made things worse by poisoning the well with the public in ways that will make Biden’s job more difficult. 

Biden thinks (correctly) we can tamp down the virus through measures like mask wearing and social distancing until vaccines essentially eviscerate the disease. Because of Trump’s politicization of mask wearing and social distancing, Biden will have difficulty getting buy-in on sacrifices that fight the virus in the interregnum between now and widespread vaccine distribution next spring and summer.

By tying vaccine development to his re-election campaign, Trump made some think vaccines now being rolled out were rushed for political purposes. Combine that with a growing, general anti-vax crowd and skepticism about medical researchers based on history in the black community, not as many people may take a vaccine as needed for complete effectiveness.

Biden must enlist every political icon (former Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama say they’ll get vaccinated publicly), celebrity, community leader, and trusted religious figure in encouraging vaccination and adherence to the measures still needed for suppressing the virus. Without beating COVID-19, Biden can’t get the economy going. He must push for a new stimulus/relief package from Congress. Yes, we know Mitch McConnell will likely stand in the way, but Biden must make clear to the American people who stands with whom. A president who pushes for what many Americans need so badly could make a difference. Biden can show there remains that thing called the “bully pulpit.” 

Race
At some point, every American president gets an exam question on race. Nearly all fail. Biden has a unique opportunity because, based on the protests last summer, much of the country seems ready to try. The old political barriers remain, but that’s no excuse for inaction. We see several legislative approaches Biden should support and push for:
·    enactment of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act (it’s already passed the House);
·    revising many of the actions taken in the 1994 crime bill Biden played a role in passing, emphasizing reducing incarceration for minor drug offenses;
·    limiting criminal and civil immunity in police shooting cases;
·    ending no-knock warrants; and
·    reform measures that would foster increased use of psychologists and social workers, not police officers, in certain domestic situations and other encounters that often lead to police shootings.

State and local governments probably can accomplish more on some of these things, but federal legislation could establish goals and guidelines.

We also think there’s merit in dusting off President Clinton’s “National Conversation on Race” idea. We have an open mind about what form such an effort should take. We know one thing: if we won’t talk about a problem as big, as morally important as this, it won’t ever get solved.

Climate
We’ve written on this a few times, but not enough. We promise we’ll do better. This year – this awful 2020— demonstrated the issue’s importance. Wildfires in the west, storm damage in the middle of the country, and hurricanes and tropical storms in the Southeast and on the Gulf Coast represent the most visible examples of the gravity of the climate change problem.  At least now we have a president who doesn’t deny the science and accepts that not much time remains for addressing the problem.

Biden has taken two steps we heartily endorse. He says he’ll immediately put the United States back into the Paris Climate Accord. This signals the new administration’s seriousness about making America a major participant in anti-climate change efforts. 

Second, Biden has named former State Secretary John Kerry his special climate advisor. Kerry knows this issue well and will sit on the National Security Council since climate change constitutes a national security issue.

We suggest an “all of the above” climate 

approach that advocates multiple ideas. Some special interest will fight every climate proposal. Even corporations professing

support for action on climate change present much different ideas than climate activists. The administration, therefore, should not hang its hat on any one solution. It will lose legal, legislative, and administrative battles, so it needs a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach. We see this problem as so big and so important; Biden must remain creative and push every idea that might do some good.  

       What advice would you offer on the Biden-Harris agenda? 

    

WE’RE BACK!!!!: JONESWALKERWILEY RETURNS AFTER A BRIEF HIATUS

 

NOTE:   We’ve been absent from this space since our November 13 post-election offering due mainly to personal issues. Rob contracted COVID-19, spent five days hospitalized, and has gradually mended at home since his release. Henry & family grieve the loss of two beloved family members. BUT WE’RE BACK AND READY TO TAKE ON WHAT’S GOING ON IN THE WORLD.

A New Administration Takes Shape

President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris have been putting together their new

government. Generally, sane, experienced people who appear capable of doing the jobs they’re being tapped for make up the roster. We’d call these appointees “grownups”. None appear anything like the cult worshippers and sycophants around Donald Trump.

Challenges remain for Biden and Harris on the diversity front, despite an initial roll out that looks much more like America than the mostly

white male cast Trump installed. Biden has named an ethnically diverse White House staff, featuring

an all-woman communications team. The first cabinet choices include a Latino who’ll run the Department of Homeland Security, the agency responsible for immigration and border control, the first female Treasury Secretary, and a black woman as United Nations Ambassador who should help restore America’s diplomatic clout.

Biden faced considerable pressure to name an African American or Hispanic to one of the Big Four cabinet jobs -- Treasury, State, Justice, or Defense. His choice of a black man, retired four-

star general Lloyd Austin, for Secretary of Defense alleviated some ethnic concerns, but created another problem. Austin left the Army four years ago, not seven as a statute requires for naming a former military officer defense secretary. Even some congressional Democrats balked at the idea of granting yet another waiver for a retired general (Trump got one in 2017 for Jim Mattis). General Austin’s stellar resume and the unique opportunity of the first black defense secretary probably will get him the needed waiver and U.S. Senate confirmation.

Biden still has some jobs he must fill and says 

everyone should wait until he’s done, then look at the overall picture. Fair enough, but given the racial composition of the voters who fueled the Democratic ticket’s victory, Biden can’t ignore pressure for high profile black and brown appointments.

 

COVID – 19 Runs Wild While Trump Whines

We’ve documented President Trump’s malfeasance on the virus many times. Another recitation of his sins serves no purpose. His current behavior demonstrates how much better off the United States

will be when he leaves office. By spending his time on a hopeless, destructive campaign aimed at overturning the result of the election instead of helping his successor better prepare for fighting the virus, Trump has shown his utter lack of concern for average Americans. New cases, hospitalizations, and deaths keep increasing in almost every state. Things are worse many places than they were during the grim days of the spring. Health experts say a brutal winter awaits, despite vaccines on the horizon that should help get the pandemic under control.

Trump’s pitiful, disgraceful legal attack on the election while the pandemic rages has been

overwhelmingly rejected by the courts. He’s had one minor legal victory and about 40 setbacks, often doled out by Republican judges, both appointed and elected. Some judges have been scathing in their characterizations of his evidence-less claims.

Trump shamelessly pursued this strategy while, for

the longest, not letting the General Services Administration open the government to Biden’s team, thereby facilitating a peaceful transition. History may regard Trump’s lame duck behavior as the worst thing about his presidency.

Pardon Who?

It’s also possible Trump could further disgrace himself and the office he holds by doling out dozens of pardons to cronies, contributors, family members, and maybe even himself. He’s already given his former National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, a broad pardon. He’s reportedly discussed granting his children pardons and giving

one to Rudy Giuliani, the  lawyer who has run his post-election legal crusade. Several prominent figures in the right-wing media have suggested he pardon himself, something no president has ever done and seems subject to significant legal challenge.

That a president can even think about pardoning himself results from the fact presidential pardon power is exceptionally broad. It is for a reason. The drafters of the constitution wanted a way someone could right unjustly wrongs, and no one could challenge that action. It’s doubtful, however, the founders thought presidents should pardon themselves.

In a 1915 case, the U.S. Supreme Court declared that anyone who accepts a presidential pardon admits guilt. What, then, does Trump know that we don’t about himself and those on the purported pardon list, especially people who haven’t been investigated or prosecuted?

We should remember presidential pardons don’t affect state judicial actions. Trump faces multiple investigations in New York that focus on business and tax matters. Whether he pardons himself or resigns early so Mike Pence does the deed, a presidential pardon won’t save Trump from state investigations.

In the coming weeks we’ll address many pressing topics now on the national radar screen – the Georgia senate runoffs, Biden’s agenda, congressional action (or inaction) on pandemic-related stimulus relief, lingering effects of COVID -19 on the economy and on people individually, among others. Right now, we’re just thankful we’re writing again.    

THE BIDEN-HARRIS WIN: LOOKING BACK, LOOKING AHEAD

 

Joe Biden has won the 2020 presidential

election. With the declaration Friday, November 6, three days after the election, that Biden won Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes the toxic Donald Trump presidency finally ends. The victory of Biden and his running mate, California Senator

Kamala Harris, means for the first time the United States has elected a woman to one of its two highest offices. Those are the facts, but hardly the whole story.

For all the encouragement we take from the fact Trump is on his way out, we recognize

Trumpism likely isn’t dead. He won over 70,000,000 votes with the counting continuing, and his party may control the senate, depending on what happens in the Georgia Senate runoff elections. Republicans unexpectedly picked up seats in the House. In the immediate aftermath of the election, Trump fired off a long list of false claims some broadcast networks wouldn’t air.

His team launched a plethora of lawsuits that appear meritless. In short, he’s up to all his old tricks. The full-throated rejection of Trump and his enablers we’d hoped for didn’t happen.

The nation may face four years of divided government in which gridlock appears the

most likely characteristic of life in Washington. The fact Biden and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell know each other well offered a glimmer of hope for deal making, but McConnell’s inherent capacity for

obstructionism left most saying, “Don’t hold your breath.”  Whatever lies ahead, the election results left a bitter aftertaste that requires addressing on several fronts.

 

The White Folks Problem

We don’t have all the numbers yet, so precisely analyzing the demographic aspects of the 2020 election must wait.  What we know is that Trump again won a strong majority of white voters, 57% in one set of exit polls. In 2016, we gave these voters a pass since few

knew what Trump was, the Democratic candidate was the roundly unpopular Hillary Clinton, and Trump had no meaningful public record. We can’t give them such a pass in 2020.

Since 2016, Trump has revealed himself for what he is – a racist, white nationalist who disdains the brown nation the United States increasingly becomes each day.  Trump’s opponent this time went into the election with a positive favorability rating. He’s assembled a record as president littered with racist acts and statements no one can credibly claim they don’t understand. Given that, we must ask, what are the white people who supported Trump voting for?

The answer, we’re afraid, lies in a hateful impulse against demographic change. Given Trump’s record, statements, and approach, we assume white people who voted for him, at the very least, prefer arresting the progress of the last fifty or so years toward a just, equal society. This not-so-charitable view of white Trump voters will no doubt earn us blowback. But what other conclusion can we draw? Do we completely disbelieve our eyes and ears?  We choose not to do that.  Sometimes life requires harsh judgments.      

 

The Black Men Problem

Many have been disappointed that Trump

increased his share of the African-American vote, almost entirely due to support he got from black men.  Again, the numbers aren’t conclusive yet, but one exit poll suggested Trump received as much as 20% of the black male vote. African-American women remained the Democratic Party’s most reliable constituent group, voting for Biden around 92%. Of course, some people are asking why so many black men voted for Trump.

 

The benign, respectable explanations center on (1) Trump‘s attacks on Biden’s support for the 1994 crime bill that resulted in mass incarceration of black men for minor drug offenses; (2) Biden’s selection of a former prosecutor as his running mate; and (3) Trump’s supposed expertise in business and entrepreneurship. This line of reasoning makes a credible argument for those wishing not to state cruder explanations. Woodson finds these explanations credible and feels that it is asking a lot to expect Black men to support any candidate at a margin greater than 82 percent. In Woodson’s view, it is entirely

credible for Black men to require Biden to prove to them that his support for the 1994 crime bill was a “mistake” as he has claimed. Rob feels no compulsion to avoid harsher judgements. He thinks that some African-American men find appealing Trump’s bullying,

misogynistic style, with its underlying philosophy grounded in patriarchy and homophobia. He doesn’t enjoy saying that, but thinks it may be true based on anecdotal evidence we’ve each collected in barbershops and on ball fields. Henry believes both explanations bear further consideration. For him, the interplay between the two may be more complex and he does not wish to draw a

conclusion now. There’s been a lot of talk about how America needs racial healing. And we agree that it does. But, according to Rob, the male vote suggests black America, too, has some internal work it must do on itself.

The Latino Problem

Biden may have lost Florida and Texas because of his under-performance among

Hispanic voters. He got a lot fewer votes in Miami-Dade County, Florida than Hillary Clinton did.  He also got a lot fewer votes in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas than Clinton did. Biden’s aides pointed out his success with Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada.  Fair enough, but the weakness in Florida and Texas illustrated that he didn’t invest in a comprehensive strategy that took into consideration all aspects of the Hispanic vote.

The notion of demographic change fueling a permanent Democratic majority in presidential elections has always rested on the party’s nominee getting a huge share of the Latino vote. The 2020 election demonstrated Democrats don’t fully understand all the nuance involved in courting the Hispanic electorate. That must get fixed – and soon.       

We had hoped the 2020 results would produce euphoria. The elongated count, the pandemic, and apparently not winning the U.S. Senate prevented that. But, getting rid of Trump is no small feat, especially given the demographic factors we’ve laid out here. After the last four years, let us not take our blessings lightly.