Monday, March 30, 2020

SOCIAL DISTANCING: THE WAY WE ARE AND WILL BE FOR AWHILE


Millions of Americans find themselves under some kind of social distancing order. Many
cities and counties, and some states, have imposed
shelter-in-place requirements as a way of fighting the coronavirus. Some political leaders and media pundits have cast the need for social
distancing in patriotic terms, invoking
John F. Kennedy’s “…ask what you can do for your country” language as a way of inspiring compliance with social distancing orders or requests.
                                                         JFK delivering inaugural speech, 1963
There is a lot going on in the world now and a lot we could talk about. Today, we explore social distancing and its current and future influence on life in America. How are people coping? What does this practice mean for the nation going forward?

We’re All Day-to-Day
Sports teams describe players with injuries that leave the player’s status uncertain as “day-to-day.” It means the player might or might not make the next practice or game. Whether he or she participates depends on
healing, rehab, pain toleration, the player's mental attitude, etc. Given the uncertainty brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, many people are feeling day-to-day about life.
Much uncertainty exists about what contracting the disease means. A minor
irritation akin to the common cold? Severe illness and hospitalization resembling pneumonia? A death sentence? The answers depend on age, overall health, availability of medical care, and some unknowns. There’s a lot we don’t know about this disease, as the absence of a vaccine demonstrates.

That brings us to another problem. The United States lacks sufficient medical resources for fighting a massive outbreak in
which huge numbers of people require hospitalization. Health officials cry out for ventilators for patients and for masks and other protective gear for medical workers. Many people justifiably fear contaminated medical providers and equipment. 

                                          Ventilator & Protective Gear needed for Covid-19 care
Another thing creating uncertainty lies in the fact no one knows when this situation will improve. Projections of the duration run weeks, to months, to a year and a half, the earliest we’ve heard we might expect a vaccine.  In the meantime, we suffer loss of human contact, sports, and other things that make us whole. Neither men nor women live by adequately stocked grocery stores alone.
How long must we stay home, avoid friends and neighbors, forsake bars, restaurants, and other gathering places?  How long before we can give a friend or business colleague a firm handshake or big hug expressing our joy
at greeting them? How long before we see live sports played on television again? All three of us sorely miss March madness. Henry and Rob lament the absence of the Masters Golf Tournament this spring. Woodson faces withdrawal symptoms with no NBA playoffs in reasonable sight. 
The New Normal
After the September 11 attacks people asked when we’d get back to normal. The truth is
that it didn’t take long, but it never happened. Yes, by October we returned to work, flew again on airplanes, and shopped in stores, things people questioned if we’d do anytime soon after those bleak days in September 2001. Life got going again, but with big differences.

We put up with things – intrusive airport security, metal detectors, and bag searches
at sporting events, massive camera surveillance on public streets – we never thought we’d stand for. We accepted, in the form of the Patriot Act, censorship and other limits on civil liberties many of us abhor. We haven’t felt much of that law’s sting lately because we haven’t had another attack approaching the magnitude of September 11. Those provisions remain in place, however, and the government will trot them out in the event of another calamity. America usually lives with a “New Normal” after tragedies and the coronavirus will probably produce its own. Like what?  Start with economic dislocation.
Even if this ends before summer, the The United States will face significant economic problems going forward. Despite the stimulus package, some small businesses –and many
jobs – will disappear.
Unemployment may remain high for months. Even industries getting federal help could have a rough time recovering.  Sooner or later, we must pay for the stimulus
funding. If we don’t, we’ll have limited growth for a long time or face significant
inflation or both.

What about replenishing and restocking the
medical supplies being used up in this pandemic? Is this a warning about our health care system in general? We won’t debate Medicare-for-All v. some other approach here. But, doesn’t this crisis make clear we must tackle the entire health care issue with the objective of getting every American insured?
At a social level, how soon will Americans
feel comfortable attending sporting events, patronizing theaters, eating at restaurants, and showing up at other places where large crowds gather? Since many houses of worship coped with the virus crisis by putting services online, could that become the new way we do church in America? Could corporate worship services become obsolete and won’t this new approach affect church
giving? How about shopping? Will more and more of it happen online? Will
brick and mortar stores become a thing of the past? What’s
the long-term impact on voting? Did the pandemic make a definitive case for voting
by mail?  Will personalized political gatherings go extinct, since campaigning for office likely will change?

We are in uncharted territory. Americans are resilient, as demonstrated in past calamities. Everything in our history says we’ll bounce back. It will, however, take some time and some things may forever look different. 

                         

Thursday, March 19, 2020

THE DEMOCRATIC RACE: THE SANDERS EXIT STRATEGY


HOW SHOULD JOE BIDEN TREAT BERNIE SANDERS?

With four more primaries in the books, the odds appear even greater former Vice President Joe Biden will win the Democratic presidential nomination. The delegate math, and the calendar, make a comeback by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders almost impossible.
Biden on March 17 won primaries in Florida,
Illinois, and Arizona (Ohio postponed its scheduled primary until June due to coronavirus concerns). By the middle of the next day, it appeared Biden had a pledged delegate lead of almost 300 over Sanders. That may not seem an insurmountable margin since nomination requires 1991 delegates. The upcoming primary schedule, however, and the current dynamics of the race, make it unlikely Sanders can overtake Biden.
We offer Sanders some thoughts on his course going forward. Each of us has different advice for him.  

The Daunting Math
Twenty-eight contests remain between now and the end of the primary season in June. If the candidates split the remaining unallocated delegates, an unlikely scenario, given Biden’s advantages in certain places, he would still have a delegate lead of nearly 200 going into the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee. Sanders has said whoever enters the convention with the most delegates should get nominated, even without a 1991 majority.

An even split going forward would require a big change in the race. Biden has major
advantages in some upcoming primaries. Nate Silver of 538.com says Sanders needs a 20-point surge in the polls within the next week for any chance at getting nominated. That almost certainly won’t happen. What should Sanders – and Biden – do?

Henry: Work Behind the Scenes
I’m all for Biden reaching out to Sanders and his forces in a bid for party unity. But I think
this work should proceed quietly, outside the limelight. I certainly think Sanders should endorse Biden as a first step in an all-out unity campaign aimed at putting in place as fast as possible an effective plan for beating President Donald Trump. Both Biden and Sanders should treat that as Job I. Everything else is secondary.
 
Biden owes Sanders courtesy, respect, and
space for shutting down his campaign at a pace he finds comfortable, so long as that pace does not needlessly draw out the primary process. Beating Trump requires building an exceptional campaign infrastructure and the clock is ticking. The sooner Democrats start construction, the better.

Rob: Civility and Respect and That’s All
An old saw about wars holds that the winners write the history. Bernie Sanders should remember that as he contemplates what concessions he seeks from Joe Biden as the price of unifying the Democratic Party in 2020. Biden won; Sanders didn’t. Woodson’s list of demands he thinks Sanders should make, while laudable, sounds like an attempt at rewriting the history of this primary season. Biden won, in part, because Democrats – especially blacks and white
suburban women – rejected Bernie’s “revolution” and opted for someone who could put out the fire Trump started that now threatens the foundation of the American nation.

I’m all for welcoming Bernie’s supporters into the larger Democratic campaign. I hope Biden will hire some of his talented campaign staff, especially the people who masterminded his on-line fundraising effort. I hope Biden will, at all times, treat the Sanders forces with the dignity and respect they’ve earned by running such an effective campaign.  But, they –and Sanders himself—are not entitled to more than that. I hope the former vice president will resist promising anyone the moon. If elected, he has serious work ahead of him and he needs a minimum of encumbrances as he sets about that work. 
     
Woodson: Force Public Commitments
Elizabeth Warren has not endorsed Biden, though he has been the prohibitive favorite
for the nomination since the March 3 Super Tuesday primaries. Nevertheless, during the March 15 debate, Biden said he would choose a woman running mate and promote liberalizing the bankruptcy laws – all
Warren campaign positions. If Rob thinks Biden’s pronouncements were not the result of negotiations with Warren, I have a bridge in
Brooklyn to sell him. Biden needs Warren’s
 enthusiastic support to win the White House and knows it. She did what smart politicians do. She got Biden’s public embrace of her issues. She will offer her support soon enough.

Like Warren, Sanders has spent countless hours and millions of dollars in this
campaign. He also ran in 2016. Sanders will not drop out or throw his support to Biden without getting commitments from Biden on issues important to him, i.e. increasing the minimum wage, medical insurance for all, and free or subsidized college education.  Sanders has a right and a duty to his supporters to extract these concessions.
                           
Unlike Rob, I do not see the Democratic Party’s primary season as analogous to war. It’s more analogous to a debate among
business partners. Business partners seek common ground, not each other’s destruction. They have already agreed on the goal of the business (the Democratic Party). That goal is unseating Donald Trump for the good of America. To suggest that Sanders supporters are “welcome in the larger Democratic campaign” reminds me of how racist whites once spoke to black Americans. “You’re welcome in America as long as you do as we say!” That
attitude got the Democrats beat in 2016 and will beat them again in 2020. With all due regard to Henry and Rob, Sanders’s supporters deserve more than “courtesy and respect’ or “dignity and respect. Biden should treat them as partners.