GEORGIA ON OUR MINDS: A TALE OF TWO SENATE RACES THAT COULD DETERMINE BIDEN’S EFFECTIVENESS

Something of a death struggle rages in Georgia as 2020 fades away and 2021 emerges. Democrats and Republicans have mobilized for runoff elections in two U.S.

Senate races with enormous implications. Those January 5 battles will decide control of the senate and, perhaps, the fate of much of incoming President Joe Biden’s agenda.

The Peach State ended up with these two

contests because its law requires that senators win a majority of the vote, even in a general election. Nobody in either race got a majority on November 3. Historically, Democrats don’t do well in runoff elections in Georgia. With the allure of the presidential race gone, many Democratic-leaning voters don’t show up. Biden’s narrow victory this year notwithstanding, Georgia has been a red state for a long time. Republicans have a structural advantage and much of the political community expects GOP wins in both races. Not every factor, however, points in that direction.

 

The Players

In one race, 33 - year old Democrat Jon Ossoff, a London School of Economics graduate who nearly won a congressional seat in a 2017 special election, faces incumbent Republican David Perdue for a full six - year term. Perdue,71, narrowly missed getting a majority in the general election. He’s seeking his second senate term.

Democrat Raphael Warnock, 51, serves as senior minister at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. The man who occupies Martin Luther King’s pulpit faces Senator Kelly Loeffler, 50, in the race for a two-year term. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appointed Loeffler

earlier this year to fill

the seat of Johnny Isakson, who resigned. Loeffler, a devoted Trump supporter, has extensive business interests, including ownership of the Atlanta Dream of the WNBA.

Corruption charges have dogged the Republican candidates as both have been accused of insider stock trading. They

allegedly sold stocks based on information received in closed-door senate meetings earlier this year about the damage certain industries would suffer in the coronavirus pandemic. In the current polarized political environment, the charges haven’t gotten much traction. Democrats apparently believe the worse about both Perdue and Loeffler and Republicans appear not to care much. Republicans make the usual they’re-too-liberal arguments against Ossoff and Warnock. Again, it’s unlikely the claims make much difference. The races come down to which tribe can get its members to the polls.    

 

The Stakes

When it was all said and done on November 3,

Democrats had 48 U.S. Senate seats (including two independents who affiliate with them) and Republicans 52. If Ossoff and Warnock knock off the Georgia incumbents, Democrats would control the senate by virtue of Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote. With that control, Democrats woul chair  committees and

Democratic leader Chuck Schumer would control the calendar and the ability to bring up bills. He could exercise the powers current majority leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky now wields so ruthlessly.

Control of the senate will say much about Biden’s ability to confirm cabinet and other

officials, make judicial appointments, and fulfill campaign promises on matters like climate change and racial equity. Biden believes he can work with Republicans, but he knows Democratic control of the senate would make

things so much easier and so much more possible. Biden and Harris have campaigned in Georgia for Ossoff and Warnock and one or both of them could make additional appearances before the election.

 

The Campaigns

For Democrats, the races are about turnout. If organizers like 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams can approach duplicating the turnout of black, Hispanic,

narrow win in the Asian, and young voters, especially in the fast growing, rapidly diversifying Atlanta suburbs that gave Biden his residential race, they believe they can win the senate races, despite the structural GOP advantages.

For a long time, Republicans fought among themselves about these runoffs. President

Trump claimed he lost Georgia because of voter fraud, despite a Republican governor and secretary of state. Some normal Trump allies suggested Republican voters should stay home and skip the runoffs because the system was rigged and their votes wouldn’t count. No evidence of that exists, of course; recounts produced the

same result as the initial tally in the presidential race. Still, some people believe Trump and that has created massive upheaval in Republican ranks.

The GOP infighting has subsided. Some trends in the polling have favored Perdue and Loeffler. Though both races remained statistically tied for much of the campaign, the incumbents edged upward in later polling.

Turnout, however, could tip things toward the Democrats. Early voting exceeded expectations and broke records for a runoff election. In the first week, the numbers approached those of the same time frame in the general election. No one knows if voters will sustain that pace, but that’s the goal of Abrams and her cohorts. If they reach it, Ossoff and Warnock have a chance.

Money and campaign workers have flooded

into 

the state. In races with razor thin margins like the polls show, anything can happen. Georgia is on the nation’s political mind and the January 5 outcome means a lot.

The tale is still to be told.