PLEASE DON’T FORGET THE SENATE

Many of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates offer intriguing policy proposals addressing income inequality, health care, racial injustice, and other things we care about so much. None of those proposals, however, will go anywhere unless Democrats win control of the United States Senate. “Moscow Mitch” McConnell, the Republican Majority  Leader who calls himself the Grim Reaper, assures that. We decided we’d take an early look at the Senate map because it means as much as the Presidential election.

The Overview

Republicans control 53 U.S. Senate seats. Democrats have 47, including the two independents who caucus with them. Assuming Democrats take the presidential election, meaning the Vice President presides over the Senate and breaks any tie votes, winning a Democratic majority means a net gain of three seats.

             

               Source: Cook Political Report

We view that “three” number with a jaundiced eye. First, Democratic incumbent Doug 

Jones, who won that odd 2017 special election, will have such a difficult time getting re-elected in deep-red Alabama. Second, a Democratic senator from a state with a Republican governor (like Elizabeth Warren’s Massachusetts) who wins the presidency or vice presidency could mean, at least briefly, another Republican senator. Control may require a net gain of five seats.

The Key Races

Prognostications at this point usually mean little, but reviewing incumbent popularity ratings, early fundraising, and profiles of possible challengers provides a hint about the direction of the 2020 campaign. Enough endangered Republicans inhabit the Senate that Democrats have a chance, but it happening will require something like an inside straight in poker.

·    Colorado – Incumbent Republican Cory Gardner has real problems. Colorado gets

bluer by the election and he’s being outraised by potential Democratic opponents. His strongest challenger hasn’t announced. Former Governor John Hickenlooper gave up his presidential campaign last week, noting calls by Democrats that he seek the senate seat. Hickenlooper has until Colorado’s March 17, 2020, filing deadline. Former Denver state Senator Mike Johnston, however, has already raised almost $3.5 million and two others, former U.S. Attorney John Walsh and former Obama State Department official Dan Baer, are also posting solid fundraising numbers. 

·  Arizona (this election fills the remaining two years of John McCain’s term) -- Appointed Republican incumbent   Martha McSally lost to Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 race for the state’s other senate seat. McSally’s likely 2020 Democratic opponent, former astronaut Mark Kelly, husband of 2011 shooting victim, former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, poses a major threat for McSally.

·  Maine – Republican incumbent Susan Collins ticked off women and moderates by voting for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Already, progressive groups have raised $4.7 million for whoever Democrats nominate against her. State House Speaker Sara Gideon raised $1.1 million the week she announced. 

·  North Carolina – Republican Thom Tillis gets the nod on early prediction lists, but he has a precarious hold on this seat at best. Four current or former state senators, Cal Cunningham and Jeff Jackson of the Charlotte area, and two blacks, Erica Smith and Eric Mansfield, are all viewed as potential serious challengers.  

·  Georgia – If Stacey Abrams, a star of the 2018 cycle despite narrowly losing her race for governor, had run, most political observers would rate this a tossup. With Abrams not running, they give incumbent Republican David Purdue a slight edge. Democrats plan on contesting Georgia at the presidential level, so whoever wins the Democratic nomination should have a chance.  

·  Kentucky – Expect a nasty, expensive race between McConnell and retired fighter pilot

Amy McGrath. McGrath, the first woman who flew a Marine F/A-18 Hornet in combat, nearly beat an entrenched Republican in a House race in 2018. She raised $8.5 million for that contest and $3.5 million in the week she announced for senator. McConnell had a 33% approval rating in one poll during the spring. Still, Trump won Kentucky 62-32 and McConnell has a way of prevailing even when nobody likes him. Buckle your seat belts for this.

A Few Other Thoughts

Democrats have chances in some other places as well as in these races with apparently vulnerable Republican incumbents. John Cornyn in Texas might get a run for his money, especially if Beto O’Rourke abandons his presidential campaign and tries again for senator, but O’Rourke said last week he’s not interested. Iowa Republican incumbent Joni Ernst isn’t a shoo-in, especially since Democrats won two additional House seats there in 2018. Democrats elected a governor in ruby-red Kansas in 2018. Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts isn’t seeking re-election, creating a tempting open seat.

In a few places, Democrats face mildly challenging contests for seats they must hold. New Mexico’s Tom Udall is retiring, so that’s an open seat. Jeanne Shaheen should face the usual tough fight a Democratic incumbent gets in New Hampshire,  perhaps against former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. In Michigan, Gary Peters probably must hold off likely Republican nominee John James, a former military officer who ran a spirited, if unsuccessful, campaign in 2018 against Debbie Stabenow. 

A Democratic takeover of the Senate could happen. Many things would have to fall in

place. Addressing the issues we’ve been writing about the last three years depends as much on such a takeover as winning the Presidency. After all, lots of House-passed legislation now languishes on Mitch McConnell’s desk.     

      

                              

GIVING THE DEMOCRATS SOME GENERAL ADVICE

We have thoughts on how each Democratic presidential candidate can improve his or her campaign. In the weeks ahead, we’ll share those. For now, we’ll start with things that apply generally. 

 

The race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination remains in its early stages (the first voting in Iowa occurs February 3), but has taken shape such that we can say the nominee will probably come from a group of four candidates. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Kamala Harris seemingly have the best chance at standing on the stage as the nominee next July at the Democratic Convention in Milwaukee. We can make a case a few others – Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, Michael Bennett, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker -- might get there but, to varying degrees, they’re long shots. Unless something shakes up the race, that’s where we are.

So, how do these candidates make the nomination worth having? How, as a group, do they give whoever emerges as the nominee the best opportunity for taking down Donald Trump?  We have some suggestions.

Collective Advice 

The second debate held last month in Detroit

exposed flaws in the Democratic campaign as a whole.  Some pundits called the exercise - especially the second night when virtually everyone went after the front
runner Biden – a circular firing squad.  We're not sure the adjective applies, but some distressing things occurred that should stop.

Quit attacking President Obama Trump said the next day Obama got attacked more than he did. That wasn’t literally true, but we take his point. In going after Biden, several candidates challenged Obama’s immigration policies, pointedly asking Biden if, as Vice President, he counseled Obama against what he did on deportations. Biden, properly, wouldn’t say how he privately advised Obama. The 44^th President wasn’t perfect and he no doubt made decisions he’d prefer having back. But he has a 95 percent approval rating among Democrats. Whoever gets nominated will need his help in the 2020 fall campaign. Nothing good can come from running him down.

Demonstrate some flexibility Democrats get it that voters, as they showed in the 2018 midterms, care about health care. The health care discussion in the debate, however, served Republican ends, not Democratic ones. First, some candidates behaved with a “my way or the highway” attitude about their health care plans. These candidates argued there’s only one way on health care and it’s theirs. Second, other candidates offered health care plans so

complex no voter who has a life can figure them out. Democrats should set out principles and goals everybody wants – universal coverage, protection of coverage for pre-existing conditions, lower drug costs – and commit to working with other Democrats and enlightened Republicans on finding a plan that accomplishes them.

Don’t fight with each other The July debate in Detroit didn’t get overly personal, but we can see that happening soon if the candidates don’t commit to making this more about Trump than about each other. We wonder, for example, if the relationship between Harris and Biden isn’t already

Biden & Feud at 2nd Debate

fractured beyond repair. Whoever’s left for the September debate in Houston should base their complaints about any of their fellow Democrats on policy and make clear they’ll do everything possible for whoever wins the nomination. After all, any of them would make a much better president than the one we have now.

That brings us to what they should say about Trump and why America must rid itself of him.

Please Make It About Trump

Race Baiting Millions of words have been written about Trump’s promotion of racial division and discord, so we’ll add only a few. We have no difficulty believing his hate-filled diatribes against Hispanic immigrants fostered the climate that allowed the

mass shooting in El Paso. His attacks on four female members of congress, all women or color, are disgusting, as was his broadside at black Maryland Representative Elijah Cummings. Democrats, by calling him out, loudly and constantly, can drive minority group turnout and attract moderate white voters, especially women, in the suburbs. 

Rule of Law Whether the House impeaches Trump or not, his flagrant disregard for the rule of law merits removing him from office. The Mueller Report provides all the evidence needed for making the case he should go. Many of the Democratic candidates claim they’ve read it. It’s time they started showing their work.

Ghastly trade policy Trump’s tariffs may hurt China, but they’re damaging American farmers as much or more. Retailers will feel the effects soon, as will consumers. The policy is becoming one giant self-inflicted wound.

Federal government in disarray Every week it seems another cabinet level officer leaves. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coates, a respected former U.S. Senator from Indiana and one of the few grownups left in the Administration, announced on July 29 his resignation, effective August 15.  Trump then said he’d replace Coates with grossly unqualified Texas Congressman John Ratcliffe. He withdrew after a week when even Republican support didn’t materialize. Then there are all the other agencies operating with acting heads. 

We could name plenty of other things wrong with the Trump presidency. Piling on isn’t necessary for making the point it should end as quickly as possible. The sins named merely start the list and the Democratic candidates should lead the way in pointing them out.   

 

FOOTBALL ’19: DEATH, TAXES, THE ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE, THE CLEMSON TIGERS, AND THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

A brief respite from scandal, the Special Counsel, and Democratic candidates for a preview of the football season.

Think it’s not football season? NFL pre-season games started August 1 with the Hall of Fame Game. Many college players report for practice this week. On August 24 – yes, August 24 -- Florida and Miami meet in a SEC- ACC battle of bluebloods looking for breakout seasons. It’s here alright. 

Despite optimistic words from professional and college camps, most signs point to the usual suspects hoisting the trophies next January and February. In the NFL, that would mean another Super Bowl title for the New England Patriots. In college, it would mean, for the fifth straight year, a championship for Alabama or Clemson. It’s appropriate to ask why these dynasties reign. 

                               

 Coaches and Players

Alabama, Clemson, and New England keep winning for many reasons, starting with coaching. Nick Saban (Alabama), Dabo Swinney (Clemson), and Bill Belichick (New England) aren’t clones, but they have similar qualities that produce winning.  All are excellent at procuring good players, Saban and Swinney through recruiting, Belichick through scouting, drafting, and the NFL’s free agent process. All surround themselves with exceptional assistant coaches. All excel at minimizing distractions and keeping players motivated.

       

Left to Right: Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney and Bill Belichick

But they don’t do these things the same way. In recruiting, for example, nobody lands more highly rated talent than Saban. Because Alabama sends so many players to the NFL, the Tide shows up on the final list of many high school studs who

dream of making “the League.” Swinney gets his share of highly rated high school players, but he emphasizes “fit” and speaks often of passing on talented players he and his staff conclude won’t succeed in Clemson’s culture. He’s been especially good at finding diamonds in the rough, like Hunter Renfrow who walked on at Clemson (no scholarship), but became the Tigers’ best receiver and caught the winning touchdown pass in their first national championship win. (Full disclosure: Rob’s daughter graduated from Clemson in 2014 and is a former varsity Tiger athlete and he is a Clemson season ticket holder).

Belichick, who has presided over six Patriot Super Bowl wins, faces special challenges. Because of New England’s success, the team seldom picks high in the draft. Though not formally New England’s general manager, Belichick runs the show. He excels at (1) drafting unsung college players, like slot receiver Julian Edelman, a seventh round pick, who fit New England’s system, (2) rehabilitating troubled players drafted high by other teams, like Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss, acquired for a fourth round draft pick, and (3) mining the free agent market for players like safety Rodney Harrison.  

               

All About Culture

Reporters at the recent SEC Media Days asked Saban about

Nick Saban at SEC Media Days 2019

the fact he’s 16-0 against his former assistants who’ve become head coaches. He predicted that won’t continue because his coaches will do things the way he does them at Alabama and they’ll catch up. That may or may not happen, but lots of Saban imitators now dot the college  landscape. Saban has produced coaches who seem on the verge of challenging for spots in the upper tier of college football – Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher at Texas A & M, Tennessee’s Jeremy Pruitt. They’re using Saban’s recruiting techniques and putting the same premium he does on physical line play, smothering defense, and a punishing running game. Saban attracts people who want time with him, then to move up, so he endures staff turnover.

Kirby Smart              Jimbo Fisher                 Jeremy Pruitt

Swinney has also been different on this point. Except offensive guru Chad Morris, who helped Clemson to four straight ten-win seasons, then left for SMU and is now head coach at Arkansas, Swinney has mostly kept his staff together. Changes have usually followed retirements or NCAA-approved staff expansions. It appears Swinney keeps his coaches for the same reason he attracts players – they thrive in the culture he’s created, emphasizing team leadership, accountability, and that everything counts.

Belichick also oversees a culture that works in the NFL. The Patriot Way puts  winning at the center of everything. The NFL, by definition, is a cutthroat business. Players come and go from every team, but Belichick has made complete buy-in a prerequisite as few professional coaches have. Except quarterback Tom Brady, a sixth-round draft choice who turned into maybe the Greatest of All Time, New England doesn’t have stars. When players think they’re bigger than the team, Belichick gets rid of them, no matter their supposed value.

Certainly, a team other than New England could win Super Bowl LIV. Anything can happen in a league with as many good players as there are on NFL rosters. New England, however, has Belichick, Brady, and a favorable schedule, ending with consecutive games at home, where they’re 85-37 in December. Maybe this isn’t a good year for betting against the Patriots. 

Clemson and Alabama (or Alabama and Clemson) are picked 1-2 in the pre-season magazine rankings we’ve seen. Both have top flight defenses, stout running games, and Heisman-worthy quarterbacks -- Clemson sophomore Trevor Lawrence and Alabama junior Tua Tagovailoa. They have Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney (or Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban). That’s probably enough.