REPUBLICANS V. DEMOCRATS: A MATTER OF CELEBRITY

 

Both major political parties are lining up candidates

for next year’s elections. Anyone who made a political contribution during 2020 has probably been inundated with fundraising letters, e-mails, and text messages from 2022 campaigns.  We see a defining difference between the kinds of candidates emerging for Republicans and Democrats. Republicans very often present celebrities.

Democrats more often offer independent-minded candidates with roots in social and community movements. We find the difference fascinating.

Many states have spring filing deadlines and potential candidates continue making decisions about whether they’ll seek office. But, fundraising and campaign infrastructure require time. The clock is ticking, especially for high profile statewide races.

The Tuberville Model

Tommy Tuberville enjoyed a successful career as a college football coach, including at Auburn. Now

thanks to the celebrity that went along with that, Alabama’s inherent red hue, and Tuberville’s allegiance to Donald Trump, he’s a United States Senator. Tuberville brought no political or governing experience to his 2020 race against Democratic incumbent Doug Jones.  He campaigned carefully and said little about any issue. Tuberville’s case rested on the fact he’s a Republican (and, therefore, not a Democrat), he enjoyed Trump’s support, and name recognition from coaching. We aren’t saying he wasn’t qualified, but he never said much about what his qualifications were.  He spoke in generalities,

espousing well-worn right wing talking points. His record to date reflects little except following directions from Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.      

That strategy – sports-based celebrity, support of

and from Trump, and keeping quiet beyond platitudes – rests at the heart of legendary running back Herschel’s Walker’s bid for the U.S. Senate in Georgia. Walker hopes he can unseat Democrat

Raphael Warnock, the Baptist minister who won a runoff in January for the unexpired term of retired Republican Johnny Isakson.

Walker has two potential Republican primary opponents, but he’s a strong favorite to win the GOP nomination thanks to his celebrity and his relationship with Trump. Before his time in the National Football League, Walker played for the New Jersey Generals of the United States Football League, a team Trump owned. Relying on their USFL relationship, at the 2020 Republican convention Walker vigorously rejected the idea Trump is a racist.  

Like Tuberville, Walker presents no governing or political experience. He also carries quite a bit of baggage, including allegations of violence toward women, some of which he admitted in his memoir. That makes some Republicans nervous, but most political operatives believe the nomination is his to lose. Also like Tuberville,  he’s keeping a low

profile, dodging interview requests except from friendly outlets like Fox News. Assuming Walker wins the primary, smoking him out likely will become Warnock’s first task in an expensive, high stakes race.

 

Fame Via Media

People who’ve earned fame through media have become another source of Republican candidates. Take J.D. Vance, author of the  acclaimed Hillbilly

Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis. The book spent good parts of 2016 and 2017 on the New York Times best seller list. It made Vance, a former Marine turned Yale Law School graduate, wealthy and famous.  Now he’s seeking the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring Republican Rob Portman.

 

Vance caused a stir in 2016 by slamming Trump as “reprehensible” and saying his policy proposals, “such as they are range from immoral to absurd.” Now faced with the GOP primary electorate in Ohio, Vance has gotten religion. He says Trump was a good president and he regrets the nasty things he said about him.  Having repented, Vance’s celebrity helps make him the favorite in some quarters for the Republican senate nomination.  His political career now represents just another case of elevating expediency over principle.

Oh, and we can’t forget another recent candidate who made his name through the media.  Larry Elder got more votes than any of the other would-be replacements for California Governor Gavin Newsome in the failed September recall election. Elder spent over 25 years as a radio talk show host before seeking the California governor’s chair. His failure hasn’t dissuaded celebrity GOP candidates long on name identity and short on political experience as the Walker and Vance bids attest.

A Different Way for Democrats

The likely contenders for Democratic nominations for U.S. Senate in states like Pennsylvania and

Ohio are men and women with political experience. In Pennsylvania, Lt. Governor John Fetterman and Congressman Conor Lamb lead the way. In Ohio, Congressman and former presidential

candidate Tim Ryan and one-time  Consumer Protection Bureau adviser Morgan Harper probably have the inside track, though others might emerge.

Beyond that, intriguing Democratic newcomers elsewhere spring from social movements aimed at

promoting change. One of the most impactful freshman members of Congress has been Missouri Representative Cori Bush. A registered nurse and minister, she’s led the fight against COVID-related evictions, even sleeping on the U.S. Capitol steps to make her

point. Georgia Representative Lucy McBath ran for Congress so she could

work on gun safety following the shooting death of her son by a man angry about loud music. Transportation Secretary

Pete Buttigeg ran for president because he wanted to be president, but also so he could show that an openly gay man could seek the nation’s highest office.

The motivations and styles of figures like Bush, McBath, and Buttigeg seem much different than the celebrity-based campaigns of the Walkers and Elders of the world. These more independent minded candidates have bucked their own party, not just followed it. Their approach seems more likely to discourage the rush toward autocracy Trump and Republicans now seem hell bent on promoting. 

                                            

DEMOCRATIC DEBATE IV: SHOOTING THE ARROWS IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION

The fourth debate of the 2020 Democratic presidential nominating contest looked somewhat like the three that preceded it – candidates behind brightly colored

Democratic Candidates of Dabate Four

PhotoCred: The Daily Dot

lecterns, well known media figures asking the questions, and a live audience made up mostly of Democratic true believers who knew the applause lines. At the end, the pundit class proclaimed several participants as big winners, but said the race wouldn’t change much as a result of the evening’s proceedings on an obscure college campus in Ohio.

Looks deceive sometimes. This debate was very different from the ones that took place earlier in Miami, Detroit, and Houston. The difference lay in who got hunted, which showed how much the race has changed, just in the month since the September debate in Houston.

In the earlier events, former Vice President Joe Biden

served as prey for the other candidates. California Senator Kamala Harris, for example, got a big polling boost (which faded) from taking on Biden about school busing and his record on racial issues during  his long career in the United States Senate. Former Housing Secretary Julian Castro tackled Biden’s immigration record while serving in the Obama administration. Others also took shots at Biden during those first three debates.

All About Warren

Moving up in the polls and becoming a front runner

- maybe THE front runner – comes with a price. Elizabeth Warren paid that price in the fourth debate. When the Massachusetts senator took a narrow lead in some national polls and several polls in early primary states, it became clear she’d receive incoming fire on the debate stage. Her competitors didn’t disappoint.

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar challenged Warren on her support for Medicare for all. Buttigieg said Warren should support “Medicare for all who want it,” warning of the political danger in forcing millions of Americans off private health insurance plans they like. Klobuchar essentially accused Warren of being untruthful about how she'd pay for her health  care plan when Klobuchar praised Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders for "being honest here"  about "where we're going to send the invoice."  Warren stuck to her guns, not budging on her plan.

Harris went after Warren for refusing to join her demand that Twitter deactivate President Trump’s account for alleged violations of its terms of service guidelines. Other candidates challenged Warren on foreign policy. Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke accused Warren of being punitive toward people on whom she wants to impose higher taxes. The hits just kept on coming.

How’d She Hold Up?

Warren had to get used to the attacks. It’s probably not fair to say she was thrown off her game, but her first responses indicated some discomfort in her new role. As the debate went on, however, Warren rebounded, taking the criticism in stride. To her credit, she never attacked her attackers in anything even suggesting a personal rebuke.

Warren will have to get used to being the hunted if she holds her spot in the polls as the race moves toward the first primaries early next year. The criteria for the next debate will likely exclude some of the 12 candidates who appeared on the stage in Ohio. If that’s the case, those remaining must find ways of distinguishing themselves from the three leaders –Warren, Sanders, and Biden. Generally, political candidates don’t knock votes off another candidate without some kind of attack. As long as Warren stays at the front of the pack, she will take hits.

What’s the Long-Term Plan?

Some political observers have suggested Warren’s end game involves a calculated move toward the center if she gets nominated. These observers say, for example, she won’t give all the details of how she plans on paying for her health care plan because she wants “wiggle room” for the general election campaign. Perhaps, this analysis goes, she’ll suggest she’s open to something less than a single payer health care system that gets rid of all private insurance, maybe a public option that builds on the Affordable Care Act. That might keep her from alienating, in particular, union members who’ve bargained for health insurance they’d hate giving up.

In post-debate spin room interviews Warren, predictably, denied having a “wiggle room” strategy. She contended she’s espousing sincerely held positions she believes serve the nation’s best interests. She can’t say anything else right now, of course, but if she gets nominated, plenty of the powers that be in the Democratic party will start pulling at her about her boldest (some would say radical) proposals. She and her team will have some hard choices if she prevails in the nomination fight and takes the stage next summer in Milwaukee as the party’s standard bearer.

Voting hasn’t even started yet, so we’d get way ahead of ourselves in anointing Warren now as the likely nominee. The flavor of the latest debate proved, however, her rivals take the possibility seriously. In going after her they showed they believe they needed to nip the possibility in the bud. It’s game on!