CFP 2021: COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S PLAYOFFS -- STORY LINES AND THE SAME OLD STORY

On the last day of 2021, college football presents the semifinals of this season’s

playoffs. Though the CFP may expand and eventually include eight or even 12 teams, for now we have four. Despitetwo first time participants and another that hasn’t won a title, betting people likely see a familiar face – Alabama coach Nick Saban – hoisting the trophy on January 10 in Indianapolis.
                   
December 31’s semifinals match Alabamaagainst path breaking Cincinnati in one game and, in the other, two bluebloods with something to prove. Alabama meets the upstart Bearcats in what’s technically the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas. Georgia and Michigan play the other semi in Miami in a game otherwise known as the Orange Bowl.They’re intriguing contests, but those hoping somebody other than Alabama wins it all probably must wait at least another year. We say “at least” because people who know college football think Alabama will have a better team next year than this year’s edition which struggled through late-season close calls against LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn and lost to Texas A&M.

Alabama-Cincinnati: Thinking the Unthinkable

By beating Georgia in the Southeastern Conference championship game, Alabamaearned the number one seed in the tournament and a game against fourth seeded Cincinnati. The Bearcats broke the glass ceiling by becoming the first Group of Five (American Athletic Conference, Mountain WestConference, Mid-America Conference, Sun Belt Conference, Conference-USA) member picked for the CFP.  Schools in these conferences play solid football, produce NFL prospects, and nurture successful coaches. They play, however, in smaller stadiums, attract less television exposure, and survive on thriftier budgets. When they play a team from the Power Five (Big 10, Pacific 12, Atlantic Coast Conference, Big 12, Southeastern Conference, plus Independent Notre Dame), they usually lose, sometimes by a lot.                                         

But not always. Group of Five teams do beat Power Five teams. Brigham Young, an independent often thought of and comparedwith Group of Five teams, in 2021 posted a 5-0 record against Pac 12 competition.  Cincinnati defeated Notre Dame in South Bend, 24-13, and stopped Big 10 member Indiana in Bloomington, 38-24, at a time the Hoosiers were still getting Top 25 votes.
Cincinnati’s near miss against Georgia in lastyear’s Peach Bowl encourages some in thinking the Bearcats could topple the Tide. Georgia won, 24-21, on a 53-yard field goal with :03 left. Given how that unfolded, and this year’s wins over Indiana and Notre Dame, Cincinnati’s players shouldn’t feel intimidated about facing Alabama.

Despite less than convincing wins over Navy, Tulsa, and Tulane, Cincinnati has talent throughout its lineup.  First, there’s quarterback Desmond Ridder, who hasengineered two straight undefeated regular seasons. Ridder is good enough that some NFL team might make him the first quarterback off the board next April, especially since this quarterback draft class lacks last year’s overall talent and depth. After Ridder, Cincinnati hastwo outstanding cornerbacks – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Coby Bryant. Both are tall and fast and will pose a challenge for the Tide receivers. Alabama likely won’t have the dangerous John Metchie because of a knee injury suffered in the SEC Championship game. Cincinnati, therefore, may have a chance at throttling the Alabama passing game led byHeisman Trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young.  Finally, Cincinnati has athletic, 300-pound linemen who give the Bearcats the look of a high level, Power Five football team.

So, with all this, why is Alabama a two-touchdown favorite? Because Alabama has Nick Saban and Cincinnati doesn’t.

Michigan – Georgia: Exorcists Needed

Aside from the really good teams Michigan and Georgia have and aside from the tradition each represents in college football (Michigan has more victories than any other program), the intrigue around this game centers on the redemption both coaches seek. Before thisyear, Michigan hadn’t been to the CFP (Alabama has missed only once and has won three times). Georgia has been to the CFP, but suffered an excruciating 26-23 overtime loss to Alabama in 2017.

This year, in fact, has been something of a redemption tour for Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh. Brought to Ann Arbor from the NFLwith great fanfare, he’s been seen by many as a disappointment. Until this year’s team took down arch rival Ohio State, Harbaugh had lost to the hated Buckeyes five years in a row. He’s gotten the Wolverines to bowl games, but none in the CFP and not to the Big 10’s cherished consolation prize, the Rose Bowl. Harbaugh can exorcise ghosts by beating Georgia, then take his chances against Alabama, assuming a Tide win in the semifinals.

Georgia’s Kirby Smart occupies the same boat, but for different reasons. He’s won 81% of his games in six seasons in Athens. There’s one problem.  He can’t beat Alabama. Despitetop notch recruiting class after top notch recruiting class, Smart has zero victories over the Tide. This was supposed to be the year he put all that to bed.  Georgia dominated everyone they played – until Alabama. That loss resurrected the old story lines.
                                     

What else can we say? Let the games begin!        

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S SURPRISE: OHIO STATE EXACTS REVENGE AND EARNS A SHOT AT ALABAMA

 

What goes around comes around, the old saying

goes and it applies to the college football playoffs. On January 11, Ohio State challenges top ranked Alabama in the national championship game in Miami. The contest teems with redemption and revenge story lines.  Ohio State punched its ticket by winning the  Sugar Bowl New Year’s night over Clemson, 49-28, avenging a narrow, painful

semifinal loss to the Tigers last year. Earlier in the day, Alabama won the Rose Bowl, 31-14, over Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide now seeks to avenge an embarrassing defeat in the finals two years ago.

Ohio State’s stunning shellacking of an uncharacteristically out-of-sorts Clemson team prevented a fifth episode of the Clemson-Alabama playoff series. The teams had met in four of the last five playoffs, with Clemson winning twice (after the 2016 and 2018 seasons) and Alabama twice (after the 2015 and 2017 seasons). The 2015 and 2016 games went to the wire. Each team had a convincing win in the other two games. Many looked forward to a rubber match this year, but now it won’t happen.

 

The Tide rolls

No doubt ever existed about the outcome of the

Alabama-Notre Dame semifinal, technically the Rose Bowl. Because of COVID restrictions, playoff officials moved the game from Pasadena, California to  AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (a/k/a Jerry World).

Alabama scored on its first three possessions, then kept Notre Dame at bay. Though Notre Dame has improved its lines of scrimmage from earlier post season games when Alabama simply manhandled the Irish, the Tide’s superior speed and playmaking ability made this game no contest.

Alabama may have had better defensive teams,  but its 2020 offense is probably coach Nick Saban’s

best ever. Two players, receiver DeVonta Smith and quarterback Mac Jones, made the Heisman Trophy final four list and a third, running back Nanjee Harris finished fifth. A team with that kind of fire power presents a multitude of problems for

any defense and Notre Dame was no exception. Alabama methodically destroyed Notre Dame’s hopes, rolling up 437 yards of total offense in the process.

Ohio State shocks Clemson

After Clemson easily defeated Notre Dame in

the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, many college football observers believed Clemson had sent a message that the Tigers were ready to claim their third national championship in five years. Instead, Ohio State played with a monster-sized chip on its shoulder and destroyed the proud Tigers from South Carolina. No team ever gave an opponent more motivation.

To begin with, Ohio State felt it was robbed in last year’s 29-23 semifinal loss. Several critical officiating calls went against the Buckeyes, especially a fumble recovered and returned for a touchdown that was then called an

incomplete  pass.  Second, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney voted Ohio State 11^th on his coaches’ poll ballot. Swinney contended the vote wasn’t about Ohio State, but only reflected his view that teams that didn’t play a full schedule didn’t deserve a top ten ranking (Ohio State played only six games because of COVID issues). Nevertheless, it’s difficult to imagine any better bulletin board material, especially for a team already nursing a grudge. Ohio State’s anger fueled a 21-unanswered- points outburst in the second quarter. Clemson never really threatened again. Whenever the Tigers crept closer, Ohio State torched the Clemson defense in return.

 

Ohio State – Alabama

Alabama opened as a seven-point favorite for the championship game. Whether Ohio State can threaten Alabama likely depends on intangibles that may not emerge until game time. Ohio State has weapons, especially

quarterback Justin Fields who regained his touch in the Clemson game. He’d been a strong pre-season Heisman candidate, but had an ordinary year and dropped out of the conversation. Mistake plagued outings against

Indiana and in the Big 10 championship game against  Northwestern drew criticism. Against Clemson, however, he passed for 385 yards and six touchdowns, and demonstrated complete command of the Buckeye offense.

Ohio State controlled Clemson’s superstar

quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, the dead cinch number one pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Lawrence threw for 400 yards, but never seemed in rhythm. Some will blame that on the absence of play-caller/offensive coordinator Tony Elliot, who missed the game because of COVID protocols. When a team loses by three touchdowns, blaming it on the absence of one assistant coach seems a bit much, especially when its defense never stopped the opposition. Can the Buckeyes similarly handle the multi-faceted Alabama offense? Maybe, but nobody else has this year.

Ohio State has nothing to avenge against Alabama. Few expect Ohio State will win, so the Buckeyes could be playing with house money. Except for the mere fact they’re on the national championship stage, no reason exists for the appearance of anything other than a loose, relaxed Ohio State team on January 11.

Alabama, however, has some unfinished

business. The Tide hasn’t won a national championship since the 2017 season (Alabama beat Clemson, 24-6, in the semifinals that year). The next year, Clemson humiliated Alabama in the title game, 44-16. As  for the 2019 season, for the first

time Alabama didn’t even make the four-team playoff. All that seems motivation enough for Alabama to take care of Ohio State this time around.    

PLAYOFF TIME IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WHERE ARE WE?

Only a weekend of conference championship games and the final machinations of the College Football Playoff Committee separate us from knowing the participants and seeding in this year’s playoff. The dye is mostly cast. Barring a couple of monumental upsets, we know the possibilities for raising the trophy on January 13 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

         

LSU, Ohio State, Clemson

The top three teams – LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson – sent messages on the last weekend  of the regular season. LSU destroyed Texas A&M, 50-7, expressing its displeasure with the

committee for elevating Ohio State to the number one spot in the rankings. Meanwhile, despite Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh’s annoyance with post-game

questions about the gap between his program and the Buckeyes, Ohio State’s 56-27 thrashing of the Wolverines for its eighth straight win in the  series showed the size of the gap, whatever the reasons. Clemson, which has been untouchable since a one-point squeaker

September 28 over Mack Brown’s  now bowl eligible North Carolina team, pounded South Carolina, 38-3, despite calling off the dogs early in the fourth quarter. Those three are virtually a lock.  

Even if Georgia beats LSU in the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (Saturday, 12/7, 3:30 ET, CBS), the Bayou Bengals and their likely Heisman quarterback, Joe Burrow, have a spot.

LSU QB Joe Burrow

Ohio State also probably gets in, even with a stumble against Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (Saturday, 12/7, 8:00 ET, Fox). The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin, 38-7, on October 26, so why worry?

                       

Clemson’s situation differs a little. The defending champions and pre-season No. 1 have taken a lot of grief for that close call at North Carolina and for a seemingly weak overall schedule. They face an ordinary opponent in an unranked, 9-3 Virginia team

in the ACC championship game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (Saturday, 12/7, 7:30 ET, ABC). Losing probably would kick Clemson out of the playoff, but that’s a very unlikely eventuality (full disclosure: Rob’s daughter is a former Clemson athlete and he is a Clemson season ticket holder). 

No. 4

The most impactful development the last weekend of the regular season was Auburn’s

48-45 win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, putting the Crimson Tide out of its misery as to the playoff. Alabama’s loss to LSU left Nick Saban’s team ranked number five and generated much speculation about whether it should get in if one of the top four lost, especially after a hip injury sidelined starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Now, none of that matters.

But who gets the fourth spot, assuming LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson claim the first three? Georgia, Utah, and Oklahoma seem best positioned, with Baylor grasping at straws.

Only Georgia controls its destiny. If the Bulldogs upset LSU in the SEC championship

game, Kirby Smart’s talented, if inconsistent, squad gets in (Georgia lost to that South Carolina team Clemson throttled so easily). But, Georgia has problems, because of injuries and undisciplined play in its 52-7 beat down

of rival Georgia Tech on the last weekend of the regular season. Receiver George Pickens was ejected for throwing a punch and faces suspension for the first half of the LSU game. Georgia’s already missing leading receiver Lawrence Cager. The status of running back D’Andre Swift remains uncertain. 

  

Should Georgia lose, Utah has the best chance of stepping in, assuming the once-

beaten Utes handle Oregon in the Pac 12 championship game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California (Friday, 12/6, 8:00 ET, ABC). But for a late season loss to Arizona State, the Ducks could have been in the picture too. Utah has a dynamic, dual threat quarterback in Floridian Tyler Huntley and could give one of the top 3 a tussle, despite the fact most of country knows little about the Utes.

Oklahoma should be undefeated. The Sooners and quarterback Jalen Hurts, who transferred from Alabama, however, saddled themselves with a 48-41 loss to Kansas State

on October 26. The result? Oklahoma needs a second win over Baylor in the Big 12 championship game at AT&T Stadium in Dallas (Saturday, 12/7, 12:00 ET, ABC).The once-beaten Bears had Oklahoma down,28-3 with 11:02 left in the second quarter on November 16, but lost, 34-31.  Baylor ranked ninth in the committee ratings going into the last weekend of the regular season, so everything would have to break perfectly for a hop into the fourth spot, even with a win over Oklahoma.

The Future

Each year’s playoff scramble conjures up thedebate on how many teams the playoff should include. Many want an eight-team

playoff, something leaders of the sport say they may look at when the present television contract expires after the 2025 season.

 

Last year, we suggested an eight-team format giving each champion in the Power Five conferences – ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12 – an automatic spot, with three at large selections, reserving a preference for a “deserving” Group of Five (leagues like the American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Conference USA) team. Nothing we’ve seen this year dissuades us from that idea. We still see this as better than the old Bowl Championship Series (BCS) or, heaven forbid, the so-called Mythical Championship when nothing got settled on the field. What we have isn’t perfect, but it’s sure better than that.