PLAYOFF TIME IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WHERE ARE WE?

Only a weekend of conference championship games and the final machinations of the College Football Playoff Committee separate us from knowing the participants and seeding in this year’s playoff. The dye is mostly cast. Barring a couple of monumental upsets, we know the possibilities for raising the trophy on January 13 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

         

LSU, Ohio State, Clemson

The top three teams – LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson – sent messages on the last weekend  of the regular season. LSU destroyed Texas A&M, 50-7, expressing its displeasure with the

committee for elevating Ohio State to the number one spot in the rankings. Meanwhile, despite Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh’s annoyance with post-game

questions about the gap between his program and the Buckeyes, Ohio State’s 56-27 thrashing of the Wolverines for its eighth straight win in the  series showed the size of the gap, whatever the reasons. Clemson, which has been untouchable since a one-point squeaker

September 28 over Mack Brown’s  now bowl eligible North Carolina team, pounded South Carolina, 38-3, despite calling off the dogs early in the fourth quarter. Those three are virtually a lock.  

Even if Georgia beats LSU in the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (Saturday, 12/7, 3:30 ET, CBS), the Bayou Bengals and their likely Heisman quarterback, Joe Burrow, have a spot.

LSU QB Joe Burrow

Ohio State also probably gets in, even with a stumble against Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (Saturday, 12/7, 8:00 ET, Fox). The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin, 38-7, on October 26, so why worry?

                       

Clemson’s situation differs a little. The defending champions and pre-season No. 1 have taken a lot of grief for that close call at North Carolina and for a seemingly weak overall schedule. They face an ordinary opponent in an unranked, 9-3 Virginia team

in the ACC championship game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (Saturday, 12/7, 7:30 ET, ABC). Losing probably would kick Clemson out of the playoff, but that’s a very unlikely eventuality (full disclosure: Rob’s daughter is a former Clemson athlete and he is a Clemson season ticket holder). 

No. 4

The most impactful development the last weekend of the regular season was Auburn’s

48-45 win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, putting the Crimson Tide out of its misery as to the playoff. Alabama’s loss to LSU left Nick Saban’s team ranked number five and generated much speculation about whether it should get in if one of the top four lost, especially after a hip injury sidelined starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Now, none of that matters.

But who gets the fourth spot, assuming LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson claim the first three? Georgia, Utah, and Oklahoma seem best positioned, with Baylor grasping at straws.

Only Georgia controls its destiny. If the Bulldogs upset LSU in the SEC championship

game, Kirby Smart’s talented, if inconsistent, squad gets in (Georgia lost to that South Carolina team Clemson throttled so easily). But, Georgia has problems, because of injuries and undisciplined play in its 52-7 beat down

of rival Georgia Tech on the last weekend of the regular season. Receiver George Pickens was ejected for throwing a punch and faces suspension for the first half of the LSU game. Georgia’s already missing leading receiver Lawrence Cager. The status of running back D’Andre Swift remains uncertain. 

  

Should Georgia lose, Utah has the best chance of stepping in, assuming the once-

beaten Utes handle Oregon in the Pac 12 championship game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California (Friday, 12/6, 8:00 ET, ABC). But for a late season loss to Arizona State, the Ducks could have been in the picture too. Utah has a dynamic, dual threat quarterback in Floridian Tyler Huntley and could give one of the top 3 a tussle, despite the fact most of country knows little about the Utes.

Oklahoma should be undefeated. The Sooners and quarterback Jalen Hurts, who transferred from Alabama, however, saddled themselves with a 48-41 loss to Kansas State

on October 26. The result? Oklahoma needs a second win over Baylor in the Big 12 championship game at AT&T Stadium in Dallas (Saturday, 12/7, 12:00 ET, ABC).The once-beaten Bears had Oklahoma down,28-3 with 11:02 left in the second quarter on November 16, but lost, 34-31.  Baylor ranked ninth in the committee ratings going into the last weekend of the regular season, so everything would have to break perfectly for a hop into the fourth spot, even with a win over Oklahoma.

The Future

Each year’s playoff scramble conjures up thedebate on how many teams the playoff should include. Many want an eight-team

playoff, something leaders of the sport say they may look at when the present television contract expires after the 2025 season.

 

Last year, we suggested an eight-team format giving each champion in the Power Five conferences – ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12 – an automatic spot, with three at large selections, reserving a preference for a “deserving” Group of Five (leagues like the American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Conference USA) team. Nothing we’ve seen this year dissuades us from that idea. We still see this as better than the old Bowl Championship Series (BCS) or, heaven forbid, the so-called Mythical Championship when nothing got settled on the field. What we have isn’t perfect, but it’s sure better than that.