CFP 2021: COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S PLAYOFFS -- STORY LINES AND THE SAME OLD STORY

On the last day of 2021, college football presents the semifinals of this season’s

playoffs. Though the CFP may expand and eventually include eight or even 12 teams, for now we have four. Despitetwo first time participants and another that hasn’t won a title, betting people likely see a familiar face – Alabama coach Nick Saban – hoisting the trophy on January 10 in Indianapolis.
                   
December 31’s semifinals match Alabamaagainst path breaking Cincinnati in one game and, in the other, two bluebloods with something to prove. Alabama meets the upstart Bearcats in what’s technically the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas. Georgia and Michigan play the other semi in Miami in a game otherwise known as the Orange Bowl.They’re intriguing contests, but those hoping somebody other than Alabama wins it all probably must wait at least another year. We say “at least” because people who know college football think Alabama will have a better team next year than this year’s edition which struggled through late-season close calls against LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn and lost to Texas A&M.

Alabama-Cincinnati: Thinking the Unthinkable

By beating Georgia in the Southeastern Conference championship game, Alabamaearned the number one seed in the tournament and a game against fourth seeded Cincinnati. The Bearcats broke the glass ceiling by becoming the first Group of Five (American Athletic Conference, Mountain WestConference, Mid-America Conference, Sun Belt Conference, Conference-USA) member picked for the CFP.  Schools in these conferences play solid football, produce NFL prospects, and nurture successful coaches. They play, however, in smaller stadiums, attract less television exposure, and survive on thriftier budgets. When they play a team from the Power Five (Big 10, Pacific 12, Atlantic Coast Conference, Big 12, Southeastern Conference, plus Independent Notre Dame), they usually lose, sometimes by a lot.                                         

But not always. Group of Five teams do beat Power Five teams. Brigham Young, an independent often thought of and comparedwith Group of Five teams, in 2021 posted a 5-0 record against Pac 12 competition.  Cincinnati defeated Notre Dame in South Bend, 24-13, and stopped Big 10 member Indiana in Bloomington, 38-24, at a time the Hoosiers were still getting Top 25 votes.
Cincinnati’s near miss against Georgia in lastyear’s Peach Bowl encourages some in thinking the Bearcats could topple the Tide. Georgia won, 24-21, on a 53-yard field goal with :03 left. Given how that unfolded, and this year’s wins over Indiana and Notre Dame, Cincinnati’s players shouldn’t feel intimidated about facing Alabama.

Despite less than convincing wins over Navy, Tulsa, and Tulane, Cincinnati has talent throughout its lineup.  First, there’s quarterback Desmond Ridder, who hasengineered two straight undefeated regular seasons. Ridder is good enough that some NFL team might make him the first quarterback off the board next April, especially since this quarterback draft class lacks last year’s overall talent and depth. After Ridder, Cincinnati hastwo outstanding cornerbacks – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Coby Bryant. Both are tall and fast and will pose a challenge for the Tide receivers. Alabama likely won’t have the dangerous John Metchie because of a knee injury suffered in the SEC Championship game. Cincinnati, therefore, may have a chance at throttling the Alabama passing game led byHeisman Trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young.  Finally, Cincinnati has athletic, 300-pound linemen who give the Bearcats the look of a high level, Power Five football team.

So, with all this, why is Alabama a two-touchdown favorite? Because Alabama has Nick Saban and Cincinnati doesn’t.

Michigan – Georgia: Exorcists Needed

Aside from the really good teams Michigan and Georgia have and aside from the tradition each represents in college football (Michigan has more victories than any other program), the intrigue around this game centers on the redemption both coaches seek. Before thisyear, Michigan hadn’t been to the CFP (Alabama has missed only once and has won three times). Georgia has been to the CFP, but suffered an excruciating 26-23 overtime loss to Alabama in 2017.

This year, in fact, has been something of a redemption tour for Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh. Brought to Ann Arbor from the NFLwith great fanfare, he’s been seen by many as a disappointment. Until this year’s team took down arch rival Ohio State, Harbaugh had lost to the hated Buckeyes five years in a row. He’s gotten the Wolverines to bowl games, but none in the CFP and not to the Big 10’s cherished consolation prize, the Rose Bowl. Harbaugh can exorcise ghosts by beating Georgia, then take his chances against Alabama, assuming a Tide win in the semifinals.

Georgia’s Kirby Smart occupies the same boat, but for different reasons. He’s won 81% of his games in six seasons in Athens. There’s one problem.  He can’t beat Alabama. Despitetop notch recruiting class after top notch recruiting class, Smart has zero victories over the Tide. This was supposed to be the year he put all that to bed.  Georgia dominated everyone they played – until Alabama. That loss resurrected the old story lines.
                                     

What else can we say? Let the games begin!        

 

ARKANSAS’S SAM PITTMAN: A BETTER WAY TO PICK A COLLEGE FOOTBALL COACH?

 

College football’s postseason starts this month,

while we’re in the midst of another aspect of the sport worth watching. The coaching carousel has been spinning furiously.  As coaches get fired and hired, the amazing story of Arkansas’s Sam Pittman bears telling.

We’re all native Arkansans, though two of us (Henry and Rob) live elsewhere now. We retainan interest in what’s happening there, meaning we haven’t ignored the success of this year’s Arkansas Razorback football team.

Arkansas reached number eight in the polls before suffering a 37-0 loss to top-ranked Georgia and close defeats by Ole Miss and Auburn. The Razorbacks bounced back with narrow wins over Mississippi State and LSU and a convincing defeat of Missouri. They endured a hard-fought, down-to-the-wire loss to perennial power Alabama.

Arkansas finished tied for third in the rugged SEC-West, when the Razorbacks had been picked last in many pre-season polls. Most prognosticators forecast a five- win year. Arkansas finished the regular season 8-4 and will play Penn State in the Outback Bowl on January 1st. This all happened two seasons removed from a 20-game Southeastern Conference losing streak and embarrassing losses to teams like North Texas and Western Kentucky. How did the change happen? Start with the head coach, Sam Pittman.

 

An Unconventional Hire

When Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek fired Chad Morris before the 2019 season ended, Yurachek sought out the usual suspects -- head coaches and coordinators who’d enjoyed success at schools at or just below Arkansas in college football’s pecking order. He got a less-than-enthusiastic reception. Some pointed out weaknesses in Arkansas’s roster and recruiting obstacles for a major school in such a lightly populated state. Others noted the difficulty of winning in the SEC West, viewed by some analysts as the toughest division in the sport.  Many candidates worried about how much money they’d make.

Yurachek remained patient, perhaps because he had

an intriguing prospect in his pocket.  Though  he’d never been a coordinator, the typical training ground for head coaches, Sam Pittman commanded a following. He served four years as Arkansas’s offensive line coach under Bret Bielema. Players Pittman coached lobbied Yurachek about making him the head coach.

Pittman left Arkansas for Kirby Smart’s Georgiastaff where he helped the Bulldogs win three straight SEC East titles. He developed a long list of offensive linemen taken in early rounds of the NFL draft. Most of all, he became known as a tenacious recruiter.

Pittman wasn’t obsessed with how much money he’d make. He accepted the Arkansas job not knowing the figure. He’s a bargain at $3.5 million a year, compared, for example, with Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher at $9 million. His Aggies also finished 8-4 this season.  Yurachek said, “Sam just wanted to be the head football coach at the University of Arkansas.” The 60-year-old Pittman says he’ll stay at Arkansas as long as the school will have him.

In 2020, Pittman’s first Arkansas team went 3-7 against a brutal all-SEC schedule in a pandemic-marred season. The eye test and scoreboard results said he was changing things. His team was competitive in every game except against national champion Alabama and in the second half of an opening day loss to Georgia. In 2021, the Razorbacks roared to a 4-0 start that included victories over a then-ranked Texas team and SEC West rival A&M, followed by the mid-year slump and late season comeback.

 

Pittman’s Way

We see lessons for leaders of all kinds in Pittman’s work at Arkansas. Consistent with his team approach, he embraced other successful Arkansas programs by inviting men’s basketball coach Eric Musselman and baseball coach Dave Van Horn to share with him the pre-game football experience. When the Arkansas women’s basketball team upset their sport’s goliath, Connecticut, last winter, Pittman told his players they should aspire to be like the Razorback women.  

He has constructed a physical, tough-minded team

that wins with a punishing ground game, an efficient passing attack, and solid defense. For much of this year Arkansas has been in the top five in the nation in rushing. It’s among the SEC leaders in many defensive categories. Quarterback K.J.Jefferson reflects his coach’s high character, competence, and commitment. Thanks to Pittman’s relentless emphasis, Arkansas has steadily moved up the recruiting rankings. The 2022 class might land in the Top 20.  

Pittman convinced Yurachek to give him money

that let him hire experienced assistants, including defensive coordinator Barry Odom, formerly head coach at Missouri. When he’s talked about this year’s victories, Pittman has deflected credit onto his assistants and players. When the team fell short, he’s taken the blame andpointed out things he must do better.  He has been transparent, making clear he won’t lie to the media, even if “sometimes I just don’t say anything about certain things.”

Whether other schools can emulate the Arkansas/Pittman experience isn’t clear. Maybe he’s an outlier who found the right place at the right time.

Even if he is, the Arkansas/Pittman experience offers a model for coaching searches. Find a coach who wants the job and cares more about doing it right than about the money it pays or how it sets him up for his next move. Find a coach who shares credit for success and accepts blame for failure. Find a coach who recognizes the importance of having good people around him and who’s transparent.  It’s a formula that makes recruiting easier. What parent wouldn’t want their child playing for someone following that philosophy?  

PLAYOFF TIME IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WHERE ARE WE?

Only a weekend of conference championship games and the final machinations of the College Football Playoff Committee separate us from knowing the participants and seeding in this year’s playoff. The dye is mostly cast. Barring a couple of monumental upsets, we know the possibilities for raising the trophy on January 13 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

         

LSU, Ohio State, Clemson

The top three teams – LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson – sent messages on the last weekend  of the regular season. LSU destroyed Texas A&M, 50-7, expressing its displeasure with the

committee for elevating Ohio State to the number one spot in the rankings. Meanwhile, despite Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh’s annoyance with post-game

questions about the gap between his program and the Buckeyes, Ohio State’s 56-27 thrashing of the Wolverines for its eighth straight win in the  series showed the size of the gap, whatever the reasons. Clemson, which has been untouchable since a one-point squeaker

September 28 over Mack Brown’s  now bowl eligible North Carolina team, pounded South Carolina, 38-3, despite calling off the dogs early in the fourth quarter. Those three are virtually a lock.  

Even if Georgia beats LSU in the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (Saturday, 12/7, 3:30 ET, CBS), the Bayou Bengals and their likely Heisman quarterback, Joe Burrow, have a spot.

LSU QB Joe Burrow

Ohio State also probably gets in, even with a stumble against Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (Saturday, 12/7, 8:00 ET, Fox). The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin, 38-7, on October 26, so why worry?

                       

Clemson’s situation differs a little. The defending champions and pre-season No. 1 have taken a lot of grief for that close call at North Carolina and for a seemingly weak overall schedule. They face an ordinary opponent in an unranked, 9-3 Virginia team

in the ACC championship game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (Saturday, 12/7, 7:30 ET, ABC). Losing probably would kick Clemson out of the playoff, but that’s a very unlikely eventuality (full disclosure: Rob’s daughter is a former Clemson athlete and he is a Clemson season ticket holder). 

No. 4

The most impactful development the last weekend of the regular season was Auburn’s

48-45 win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, putting the Crimson Tide out of its misery as to the playoff. Alabama’s loss to LSU left Nick Saban’s team ranked number five and generated much speculation about whether it should get in if one of the top four lost, especially after a hip injury sidelined starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Now, none of that matters.

But who gets the fourth spot, assuming LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson claim the first three? Georgia, Utah, and Oklahoma seem best positioned, with Baylor grasping at straws.

Only Georgia controls its destiny. If the Bulldogs upset LSU in the SEC championship

game, Kirby Smart’s talented, if inconsistent, squad gets in (Georgia lost to that South Carolina team Clemson throttled so easily). But, Georgia has problems, because of injuries and undisciplined play in its 52-7 beat down

of rival Georgia Tech on the last weekend of the regular season. Receiver George Pickens was ejected for throwing a punch and faces suspension for the first half of the LSU game. Georgia’s already missing leading receiver Lawrence Cager. The status of running back D’Andre Swift remains uncertain. 

  

Should Georgia lose, Utah has the best chance of stepping in, assuming the once-

beaten Utes handle Oregon in the Pac 12 championship game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California (Friday, 12/6, 8:00 ET, ABC). But for a late season loss to Arizona State, the Ducks could have been in the picture too. Utah has a dynamic, dual threat quarterback in Floridian Tyler Huntley and could give one of the top 3 a tussle, despite the fact most of country knows little about the Utes.

Oklahoma should be undefeated. The Sooners and quarterback Jalen Hurts, who transferred from Alabama, however, saddled themselves with a 48-41 loss to Kansas State

on October 26. The result? Oklahoma needs a second win over Baylor in the Big 12 championship game at AT&T Stadium in Dallas (Saturday, 12/7, 12:00 ET, ABC).The once-beaten Bears had Oklahoma down,28-3 with 11:02 left in the second quarter on November 16, but lost, 34-31.  Baylor ranked ninth in the committee ratings going into the last weekend of the regular season, so everything would have to break perfectly for a hop into the fourth spot, even with a win over Oklahoma.

The Future

Each year’s playoff scramble conjures up thedebate on how many teams the playoff should include. Many want an eight-team

playoff, something leaders of the sport say they may look at when the present television contract expires after the 2025 season.

 

Last year, we suggested an eight-team format giving each champion in the Power Five conferences – ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12 – an automatic spot, with three at large selections, reserving a preference for a “deserving” Group of Five (leagues like the American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Conference USA) team. Nothing we’ve seen this year dissuades us from that idea. We still see this as better than the old Bowl Championship Series (BCS) or, heaven forbid, the so-called Mythical Championship when nothing got settled on the field. What we have isn’t perfect, but it’s sure better than that.