COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S SURPRISE: OHIO STATE EXACTS REVENGE AND EARNS A SHOT AT ALABAMA

 

What goes around comes around, the old saying

goes and it applies to the college football playoffs. On January 11, Ohio State challenges top ranked Alabama in the national championship game in Miami. The contest teems with redemption and revenge story lines.  Ohio State punched its ticket by winning the  Sugar Bowl New Year’s night over Clemson, 49-28, avenging a narrow, painful

semifinal loss to the Tigers last year. Earlier in the day, Alabama won the Rose Bowl, 31-14, over Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide now seeks to avenge an embarrassing defeat in the finals two years ago.

Ohio State’s stunning shellacking of an uncharacteristically out-of-sorts Clemson team prevented a fifth episode of the Clemson-Alabama playoff series. The teams had met in four of the last five playoffs, with Clemson winning twice (after the 2016 and 2018 seasons) and Alabama twice (after the 2015 and 2017 seasons). The 2015 and 2016 games went to the wire. Each team had a convincing win in the other two games. Many looked forward to a rubber match this year, but now it won’t happen.

 

The Tide rolls

No doubt ever existed about the outcome of the

Alabama-Notre Dame semifinal, technically the Rose Bowl. Because of COVID restrictions, playoff officials moved the game from Pasadena, California to  AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (a/k/a Jerry World).

Alabama scored on its first three possessions, then kept Notre Dame at bay. Though Notre Dame has improved its lines of scrimmage from earlier post season games when Alabama simply manhandled the Irish, the Tide’s superior speed and playmaking ability made this game no contest.

Alabama may have had better defensive teams,  but its 2020 offense is probably coach Nick Saban’s

best ever. Two players, receiver DeVonta Smith and quarterback Mac Jones, made the Heisman Trophy final four list and a third, running back Nanjee Harris finished fifth. A team with that kind of fire power presents a multitude of problems for

any defense and Notre Dame was no exception. Alabama methodically destroyed Notre Dame’s hopes, rolling up 437 yards of total offense in the process.

Ohio State shocks Clemson

After Clemson easily defeated Notre Dame in

the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, many college football observers believed Clemson had sent a message that the Tigers were ready to claim their third national championship in five years. Instead, Ohio State played with a monster-sized chip on its shoulder and destroyed the proud Tigers from South Carolina. No team ever gave an opponent more motivation.

To begin with, Ohio State felt it was robbed in last year’s 29-23 semifinal loss. Several critical officiating calls went against the Buckeyes, especially a fumble recovered and returned for a touchdown that was then called an

incomplete  pass.  Second, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney voted Ohio State 11^th on his coaches’ poll ballot. Swinney contended the vote wasn’t about Ohio State, but only reflected his view that teams that didn’t play a full schedule didn’t deserve a top ten ranking (Ohio State played only six games because of COVID issues). Nevertheless, it’s difficult to imagine any better bulletin board material, especially for a team already nursing a grudge. Ohio State’s anger fueled a 21-unanswered- points outburst in the second quarter. Clemson never really threatened again. Whenever the Tigers crept closer, Ohio State torched the Clemson defense in return.

 

Ohio State – Alabama

Alabama opened as a seven-point favorite for the championship game. Whether Ohio State can threaten Alabama likely depends on intangibles that may not emerge until game time. Ohio State has weapons, especially

quarterback Justin Fields who regained his touch in the Clemson game. He’d been a strong pre-season Heisman candidate, but had an ordinary year and dropped out of the conversation. Mistake plagued outings against

Indiana and in the Big 10 championship game against  Northwestern drew criticism. Against Clemson, however, he passed for 385 yards and six touchdowns, and demonstrated complete command of the Buckeye offense.

Ohio State controlled Clemson’s superstar

quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, the dead cinch number one pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Lawrence threw for 400 yards, but never seemed in rhythm. Some will blame that on the absence of play-caller/offensive coordinator Tony Elliot, who missed the game because of COVID protocols. When a team loses by three touchdowns, blaming it on the absence of one assistant coach seems a bit much, especially when its defense never stopped the opposition. Can the Buckeyes similarly handle the multi-faceted Alabama offense? Maybe, but nobody else has this year.

Ohio State has nothing to avenge against Alabama. Few expect Ohio State will win, so the Buckeyes could be playing with house money. Except for the mere fact they’re on the national championship stage, no reason exists for the appearance of anything other than a loose, relaxed Ohio State team on January 11.

Alabama, however, has some unfinished

business. The Tide hasn’t won a national championship since the 2017 season (Alabama beat Clemson, 24-6, in the semifinals that year). The next year, Clemson humiliated Alabama in the title game, 44-16. As  for the 2019 season, for the first

time Alabama didn’t even make the four-team playoff. All that seems motivation enough for Alabama to take care of Ohio State this time around.    

FOOTBALL ’19: DEATH, TAXES, THE ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE, THE CLEMSON TIGERS, AND THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

A brief respite from scandal, the Special Counsel, and Democratic candidates for a preview of the football season.

Think it’s not football season? NFL pre-season games started August 1 with the Hall of Fame Game. Many college players report for practice this week. On August 24 – yes, August 24 -- Florida and Miami meet in a SEC- ACC battle of bluebloods looking for breakout seasons. It’s here alright. 

Despite optimistic words from professional and college camps, most signs point to the usual suspects hoisting the trophies next January and February. In the NFL, that would mean another Super Bowl title for the New England Patriots. In college, it would mean, for the fifth straight year, a championship for Alabama or Clemson. It’s appropriate to ask why these dynasties reign. 

                               

 Coaches and Players

Alabama, Clemson, and New England keep winning for many reasons, starting with coaching. Nick Saban (Alabama), Dabo Swinney (Clemson), and Bill Belichick (New England) aren’t clones, but they have similar qualities that produce winning.  All are excellent at procuring good players, Saban and Swinney through recruiting, Belichick through scouting, drafting, and the NFL’s free agent process. All surround themselves with exceptional assistant coaches. All excel at minimizing distractions and keeping players motivated.

       

Left to Right: Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney and Bill Belichick

But they don’t do these things the same way. In recruiting, for example, nobody lands more highly rated talent than Saban. Because Alabama sends so many players to the NFL, the Tide shows up on the final list of many high school studs who

dream of making “the League.” Swinney gets his share of highly rated high school players, but he emphasizes “fit” and speaks often of passing on talented players he and his staff conclude won’t succeed in Clemson’s culture. He’s been especially good at finding diamonds in the rough, like Hunter Renfrow who walked on at Clemson (no scholarship), but became the Tigers’ best receiver and caught the winning touchdown pass in their first national championship win. (Full disclosure: Rob’s daughter graduated from Clemson in 2014 and is a former varsity Tiger athlete and he is a Clemson season ticket holder).

Belichick, who has presided over six Patriot Super Bowl wins, faces special challenges. Because of New England’s success, the team seldom picks high in the draft. Though not formally New England’s general manager, Belichick runs the show. He excels at (1) drafting unsung college players, like slot receiver Julian Edelman, a seventh round pick, who fit New England’s system, (2) rehabilitating troubled players drafted high by other teams, like Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss, acquired for a fourth round draft pick, and (3) mining the free agent market for players like safety Rodney Harrison.  

               

All About Culture

Reporters at the recent SEC Media Days asked Saban about

Nick Saban at SEC Media Days 2019

the fact he’s 16-0 against his former assistants who’ve become head coaches. He predicted that won’t continue because his coaches will do things the way he does them at Alabama and they’ll catch up. That may or may not happen, but lots of Saban imitators now dot the college  landscape. Saban has produced coaches who seem on the verge of challenging for spots in the upper tier of college football – Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher at Texas A & M, Tennessee’s Jeremy Pruitt. They’re using Saban’s recruiting techniques and putting the same premium he does on physical line play, smothering defense, and a punishing running game. Saban attracts people who want time with him, then to move up, so he endures staff turnover.

Kirby Smart              Jimbo Fisher                 Jeremy Pruitt

Swinney has also been different on this point. Except offensive guru Chad Morris, who helped Clemson to four straight ten-win seasons, then left for SMU and is now head coach at Arkansas, Swinney has mostly kept his staff together. Changes have usually followed retirements or NCAA-approved staff expansions. It appears Swinney keeps his coaches for the same reason he attracts players – they thrive in the culture he’s created, emphasizing team leadership, accountability, and that everything counts.

Belichick also oversees a culture that works in the NFL. The Patriot Way puts  winning at the center of everything. The NFL, by definition, is a cutthroat business. Players come and go from every team, but Belichick has made complete buy-in a prerequisite as few professional coaches have. Except quarterback Tom Brady, a sixth-round draft choice who turned into maybe the Greatest of All Time, New England doesn’t have stars. When players think they’re bigger than the team, Belichick gets rid of them, no matter their supposed value.

Certainly, a team other than New England could win Super Bowl LIV. Anything can happen in a league with as many good players as there are on NFL rosters. New England, however, has Belichick, Brady, and a favorable schedule, ending with consecutive games at home, where they’re 85-37 in December. Maybe this isn’t a good year for betting against the Patriots. 

Clemson and Alabama (or Alabama and Clemson) are picked 1-2 in the pre-season magazine rankings we’ve seen. Both have top flight defenses, stout running games, and Heisman-worthy quarterbacks -- Clemson sophomore Trevor Lawrence and Alabama junior Tua Tagovailoa. They have Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney (or Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban). That’s probably enough.