FOOTBALL ’19: DEATH, TAXES, THE ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE, THE CLEMSON TIGERS, AND THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

A brief respite from scandal, the Special Counsel, and Democratic candidates for a preview of the football season.

Think it’s not football season? NFL pre-season games started August 1 with the Hall of Fame Game. Many college players report for practice this week. On August 24 – yes, August 24 -- Florida and Miami meet in a SEC- ACC battle of bluebloods looking for breakout seasons. It’s here alright. 

Despite optimistic words from professional and college camps, most signs point to the usual suspects hoisting the trophies next January and February. In the NFL, that would mean another Super Bowl title for the New England Patriots. In college, it would mean, for the fifth straight year, a championship for Alabama or Clemson. It’s appropriate to ask why these dynasties reign. 

                               

 Coaches and Players

Alabama, Clemson, and New England keep winning for many reasons, starting with coaching. Nick Saban (Alabama), Dabo Swinney (Clemson), and Bill Belichick (New England) aren’t clones, but they have similar qualities that produce winning.  All are excellent at procuring good players, Saban and Swinney through recruiting, Belichick through scouting, drafting, and the NFL’s free agent process. All surround themselves with exceptional assistant coaches. All excel at minimizing distractions and keeping players motivated.

       

Left to Right: Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney and Bill Belichick

But they don’t do these things the same way. In recruiting, for example, nobody lands more highly rated talent than Saban. Because Alabama sends so many players to the NFL, the Tide shows up on the final list of many high school studs who

dream of making “the League.” Swinney gets his share of highly rated high school players, but he emphasizes “fit” and speaks often of passing on talented players he and his staff conclude won’t succeed in Clemson’s culture. He’s been especially good at finding diamonds in the rough, like Hunter Renfrow who walked on at Clemson (no scholarship), but became the Tigers’ best receiver and caught the winning touchdown pass in their first national championship win. (Full disclosure: Rob’s daughter graduated from Clemson in 2014 and is a former varsity Tiger athlete and he is a Clemson season ticket holder).

Belichick, who has presided over six Patriot Super Bowl wins, faces special challenges. Because of New England’s success, the team seldom picks high in the draft. Though not formally New England’s general manager, Belichick runs the show. He excels at (1) drafting unsung college players, like slot receiver Julian Edelman, a seventh round pick, who fit New England’s system, (2) rehabilitating troubled players drafted high by other teams, like Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss, acquired for a fourth round draft pick, and (3) mining the free agent market for players like safety Rodney Harrison.  

               

All About Culture

Reporters at the recent SEC Media Days asked Saban about

Nick Saban at SEC Media Days 2019

the fact he’s 16-0 against his former assistants who’ve become head coaches. He predicted that won’t continue because his coaches will do things the way he does them at Alabama and they’ll catch up. That may or may not happen, but lots of Saban imitators now dot the college  landscape. Saban has produced coaches who seem on the verge of challenging for spots in the upper tier of college football – Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher at Texas A & M, Tennessee’s Jeremy Pruitt. They’re using Saban’s recruiting techniques and putting the same premium he does on physical line play, smothering defense, and a punishing running game. Saban attracts people who want time with him, then to move up, so he endures staff turnover.

Kirby Smart              Jimbo Fisher                 Jeremy Pruitt

Swinney has also been different on this point. Except offensive guru Chad Morris, who helped Clemson to four straight ten-win seasons, then left for SMU and is now head coach at Arkansas, Swinney has mostly kept his staff together. Changes have usually followed retirements or NCAA-approved staff expansions. It appears Swinney keeps his coaches for the same reason he attracts players – they thrive in the culture he’s created, emphasizing team leadership, accountability, and that everything counts.

Belichick also oversees a culture that works in the NFL. The Patriot Way puts  winning at the center of everything. The NFL, by definition, is a cutthroat business. Players come and go from every team, but Belichick has made complete buy-in a prerequisite as few professional coaches have. Except quarterback Tom Brady, a sixth-round draft choice who turned into maybe the Greatest of All Time, New England doesn’t have stars. When players think they’re bigger than the team, Belichick gets rid of them, no matter their supposed value.

Certainly, a team other than New England could win Super Bowl LIV. Anything can happen in a league with as many good players as there are on NFL rosters. New England, however, has Belichick, Brady, and a favorable schedule, ending with consecutive games at home, where they’re 85-37 in December. Maybe this isn’t a good year for betting against the Patriots. 

Clemson and Alabama (or Alabama and Clemson) are picked 1-2 in the pre-season magazine rankings we’ve seen. Both have top flight defenses, stout running games, and Heisman-worthy quarterbacks -- Clemson sophomore Trevor Lawrence and Alabama junior Tua Tagovailoa. They have Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney (or Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban). That’s probably enough.