PLEASE DON’T FORGET THE SENATE

Many of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates offer intriguing policy proposals addressing income inequality, health care, racial injustice, and other things we care about so much. None of those proposals, however, will go anywhere unless Democrats win control of the United States Senate. “Moscow Mitch” McConnell, the Republican Majority  Leader who calls himself the Grim Reaper, assures that. We decided we’d take an early look at the Senate map because it means as much as the Presidential election.

The Overview

Republicans control 53 U.S. Senate seats. Democrats have 47, including the two independents who caucus with them. Assuming Democrats take the presidential election, meaning the Vice President presides over the Senate and breaks any tie votes, winning a Democratic majority means a net gain of three seats.

             

               Source: Cook Political Report

We view that “three” number with a jaundiced eye. First, Democratic incumbent Doug 

Jones, who won that odd 2017 special election, will have such a difficult time getting re-elected in deep-red Alabama. Second, a Democratic senator from a state with a Republican governor (like Elizabeth Warren’s Massachusetts) who wins the presidency or vice presidency could mean, at least briefly, another Republican senator. Control may require a net gain of five seats.

The Key Races

Prognostications at this point usually mean little, but reviewing incumbent popularity ratings, early fundraising, and profiles of possible challengers provides a hint about the direction of the 2020 campaign. Enough endangered Republicans inhabit the Senate that Democrats have a chance, but it happening will require something like an inside straight in poker.

·    Colorado – Incumbent Republican Cory Gardner has real problems. Colorado gets

bluer by the election and he’s being outraised by potential Democratic opponents. His strongest challenger hasn’t announced. Former Governor John Hickenlooper gave up his presidential campaign last week, noting calls by Democrats that he seek the senate seat. Hickenlooper has until Colorado’s March 17, 2020, filing deadline. Former Denver state Senator Mike Johnston, however, has already raised almost $3.5 million and two others, former U.S. Attorney John Walsh and former Obama State Department official Dan Baer, are also posting solid fundraising numbers. 

·  Arizona (this election fills the remaining two years of John McCain’s term) -- Appointed Republican incumbent   Martha McSally lost to Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 race for the state’s other senate seat. McSally’s likely 2020 Democratic opponent, former astronaut Mark Kelly, husband of 2011 shooting victim, former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, poses a major threat for McSally.

·  Maine – Republican incumbent Susan Collins ticked off women and moderates by voting for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Already, progressive groups have raised $4.7 million for whoever Democrats nominate against her. State House Speaker Sara Gideon raised $1.1 million the week she announced. 

·  North Carolina – Republican Thom Tillis gets the nod on early prediction lists, but he has a precarious hold on this seat at best. Four current or former state senators, Cal Cunningham and Jeff Jackson of the Charlotte area, and two blacks, Erica Smith and Eric Mansfield, are all viewed as potential serious challengers.  

·  Georgia – If Stacey Abrams, a star of the 2018 cycle despite narrowly losing her race for governor, had run, most political observers would rate this a tossup. With Abrams not running, they give incumbent Republican David Purdue a slight edge. Democrats plan on contesting Georgia at the presidential level, so whoever wins the Democratic nomination should have a chance.  

·  Kentucky – Expect a nasty, expensive race between McConnell and retired fighter pilot

Amy McGrath. McGrath, the first woman who flew a Marine F/A-18 Hornet in combat, nearly beat an entrenched Republican in a House race in 2018. She raised $8.5 million for that contest and $3.5 million in the week she announced for senator. McConnell had a 33% approval rating in one poll during the spring. Still, Trump won Kentucky 62-32 and McConnell has a way of prevailing even when nobody likes him. Buckle your seat belts for this.

A Few Other Thoughts

Democrats have chances in some other places as well as in these races with apparently vulnerable Republican incumbents. John Cornyn in Texas might get a run for his money, especially if Beto O’Rourke abandons his presidential campaign and tries again for senator, but O’Rourke said last week he’s not interested. Iowa Republican incumbent Joni Ernst isn’t a shoo-in, especially since Democrats won two additional House seats there in 2018. Democrats elected a governor in ruby-red Kansas in 2018. Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts isn’t seeking re-election, creating a tempting open seat.

In a few places, Democrats face mildly challenging contests for seats they must hold. New Mexico’s Tom Udall is retiring, so that’s an open seat. Jeanne Shaheen should face the usual tough fight a Democratic incumbent gets in New Hampshire,  perhaps against former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. In Michigan, Gary Peters probably must hold off likely Republican nominee John James, a former military officer who ran a spirited, if unsuccessful, campaign in 2018 against Debbie Stabenow. 

A Democratic takeover of the Senate could happen. Many things would have to fall in

place. Addressing the issues we’ve been writing about the last three years depends as much on such a takeover as winning the Presidency. After all, lots of House-passed legislation now languishes on Mitch McConnell’s desk.