PLAYING ODDSMAKERS: HANDICAPPING THE VEEP STAKES

Earlier we analyzed the Democratic vice-presidential selection process, focusing on criteria, not candidates. We said we’d comment on candidates later. Now with Joe Biden’s announcement just weeks away, we turn to the reported prospects.

Each of us grew up in Arkansas near Oaklawn Park, a thoroughbred race track in Hot Springs. We all spent afternoons there

watching the horses run and placing bets. One of us (Rob) religiously follows the Triple Crown races each year. We, therefore, know about the concept of “odds” – the likelihood an event will take place as opposed to the likelihood it won’t. So, now we lay odds on the reported field.

One Caveat

Much of the reporting about the veep stakes focuses on which prospect Biden reportedly has under consideration could help him win.

The likely answer is “nobody.” In their book, Do Running Mates Matter?, political scientists Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko conclude, “voters are very unlikely to choose a presidential ticket simply because they like or dislike the second-in-command.” A vice presidential pick voters doubt may make the electorate question the presidential candidate’s judgment (or vice versa), but the running mate “rarely” draws voters from that person’s demographic group or home state.

We suspect Biden knows this and will concentrate on two other things we emphasized – (1) compatibility with him and (2) competence. How does he get along with the person? Is she ready to be president?

Biden has said he’s picking a woman. Presidential nominees have twice tried female

running mates without success. Geraldine Ferraro went down with Walter Mondale in the 1984 Reagan landslide. Her husband’s real estate ventures proved a distraction from which the campaign never recovered. John McCain picked the woefully unprepared Sarah Palin in

2008, a mistake from which he never recovered. The Ferraro and Palin failures don’t doom the 2020 Democratic ticket. This is a different time and it’s not likely Biden will pick a Ferraro and certainly not a Palin.

Off to the Races

Keeping in mind (1) professors Devine and Kopko argue the usual political calculations don’t matter and (2) their analysis may not apply to vice presidential nominees of color because no presidential nominee has ever picked one, we project the odds as:  

·  Even Money – Kamala Harris. The

California senator checks boxes – twice elected to statewide office, ran for president putting her on the big stage, service on high profile senate committees. She can manage or overcome flaws like her prosecutorial record and a snarky communication style.

4-to-1 –Val Demings. A two-term Florida congresswoman and a star House

impeachment manager, she’s a hot prospect. A lot rides on how Biden views her experience as Orlando’s police chief. Is a law enforcement background a non-starter or is her knowledge of policing invaluable?

5-to-1 – Tammy Duckworth. Op-ed writers have pleaded the Illinois senator's case,

pointing out how her war hero record and dedication to service so starkly contrast President Donald Trump’s selfishness. For however much it counts, she’s Asian-American. Her doctoral degree, military experience, eight years in Congress, and service as Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs win her the resume race.

· 5-to-1 – Elizabeth Warren. The Massachusetts senator’s prospects rest on the idea she could mobilize the progressive

wing of the Democratic Party. If Devine and Kopko are right and that won’t happen, in today’s climate, the reasons for Biden, a 77- year- old white man, picking a 71-year-old white woman, go away.

· 6-to-1 – Keshia Lance Bottoms. Many would give the Atlanta mayor longer odds, but her

name remains high in the reporting. Somebody in Biden world likes her or has an ulterior motive for keeping her candidacy alive. Of the contenders, she’s worked hardest and longest on Biden’s campaign.

· 7-to-1 – Michelle Lujan Grisham. The good news -- she’s Hispanic, a constituency Biden

could do better with, and she’s a governor, historically good training for vice presidential nominees. The bad news -- hardly anyone outside her home state of New Mexico knows about her.

· 8-to-1 – Susan Rice. If Duckworth wins the paper resume race, Rice takes the ready-to- be-president contest. The former United

Nations Ambassador and national security adviser has been flawless in television interviews on Trump’s mishandling of the Russia bounty scandal. She has major and minor flaws Biden may not get past. She’s never held elective office. Nominating her would mean re-litigating the 2012 attack on U.S. interests by Islamic militants in Benghazi, Libya. There are family questions: Would black or white voters hold her interracial marriage against her (yes, Harris is in the same boat)? Would Democratic voters hold her son’s involvement with college Republicans at Stanford against her?

· 12-to-1 - Gretchen Whitmer, Karen Bass, Stacey Abrams, Tammy Baldwin. The odds on all have lengthened for different reasons.

Whitmer (Michigan governor) and Baldwin (Wisconsin senator) may have been on the list in the first place because of where  they’re from. Polls say Biden’s doing fine in those states on his own. Bass, a California congresswoman, just went on the list, apparently at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s urging. Biden’s team may have felt obligated to look her over. If Biden wants a black woman from California, Harris seems a more likely choice. Perhaps Governor Gavin Newson might appoint Bass to Harris’s senate seat. Abrams hasn’t been shy about letting everyone know she wants the job. Her prospects seem to have dimmed, perhaps because of that or because Biden’s people can’t get beyond the fact she’s never won an election for anything other than a Georgia state house seat. Maybe attorney general represents her best bet for a spot in a Biden administration.

Handicapping is a tough business, an inexact science. We understand someone not on this list might emerge.  Right now, the odds AGAINST that seem pretty good.  

            

THE DEMOCRATIC RACE: THE SANDERS EXIT STRATEGY

HOW SHOULD JOE BIDEN TREAT BERNIE SANDERS?

With four more primaries in the books, the odds appear even greater former Vice President Joe Biden will win the Democratic presidential nomination. The delegate math, and the calendar, make a comeback by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders almost impossible.

Biden on March 17 won primaries in Florida,

Illinois, and Arizona (Ohio postponed its scheduled primary until June due to coronavirus concerns). By the middle of the next day, it appeared Biden had a pledged delegate lead of almost 300 over Sanders. That may not seem an insurmountable margin since nomination requires 1991 delegates. The upcoming primary schedule, however, and the current dynamics of the race, make it unlikely Sanders can overtake Biden.

We offer Sanders some thoughts on his course going forward. Each of us has different advice for him.  

The Daunting Math

Twenty-eight contests remain between now and the end of the primary season in June. If the candidates split the remaining unallocated delegates, an unlikely scenario, given Biden’s advantages in certain places, he would still have a delegate lead of nearly 200 going into the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee. Sanders has said whoever enters the convention with the most delegates should get nominated, even without a 1991 majority.

An even split going forward would require a big change in the race. Biden has major

advantages in some upcoming primaries. Nate Silver of 538.com says Sanders needs a 20-point surge in the polls within the next week for any chance at getting nominated. That almost certainly won’t happen. What should Sanders – and Biden – do?

Henry: Work Behind the Scenes

I’m all for Biden reaching out to Sanders and his forces in a bid for party unity. But I think

this work should proceed quietly, outside the limelight. I certainly think Sanders should endorse Biden as a first step in an all-out unity campaign aimed at putting in place as fast as possible an effective plan for beating President Donald Trump. Both Biden and Sanders should treat that as Job I. Everything else is secondary.

 

Biden owes Sanders courtesy, respect, and

space for shutting down his campaign at a pace he finds comfortable, so long as that pace does not needlessly draw out the primary process. Beating Trump requires building an exceptional campaign infrastructure and the clock is ticking. The sooner Democrats start construction, the better.

Rob: Civility and Respect and That’s All

An old saw about wars holds that the winners write the history. Bernie Sanders should remember that as he contemplates what concessions he seeks from Joe Biden as the price of unifying the Democratic Party in 2020. Biden won; Sanders didn’t. Woodson’s list of demands he thinks Sanders should make, while laudable, sounds like an attempt at rewriting the history of this primary season. Biden won, in part, because Democrats – especially blacks and white

suburban women – rejected Bernie’s “revolution” and opted for someone who could put out the fire Trump started that now threatens the foundation of the American nation.

I’m all for welcoming Bernie’s supporters into the larger Democratic campaign. I hope Biden will hire some of his talented campaign staff, especially the people who masterminded his on-line fundraising effort. I hope Biden will, at all times, treat the Sanders forces with the dignity and respect they’ve earned by running such an effective campaign.  But, they –and Sanders himself—are not entitled to more than that. I hope the former vice president will resist promising anyone the moon. If elected, he has serious work ahead of him and he needs a minimum of encumbrances as he sets about that work. 

     

Woodson: Force Public Commitments

Elizabeth Warren has not endorsed Biden, though he has been the prohibitive favorite

for the nomination since the March 3 Super Tuesday primaries. Nevertheless, during the March 15 debate, Biden said he would choose a woman running mate and promote liberalizing the bankruptcy laws – all

Warren campaign positions. If Rob thinks Biden’s pronouncements were not the result of negotiations with Warren, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell him. Biden needs Warren’s

 enthusiastic support to win the White House and knows it. She did what smart politicians do. She got Biden’s public embrace of her issues. She will offer her support soon enough.

Like Warren, Sanders has spent countless hours and millions of dollars in this

campaign. He also ran in 2016. Sanders will not drop out or throw his support to Biden without getting commitments from Biden on issues important to him, i.e. increasing the minimum wage, medical insurance for all, and free or subsidized college education.  Sanders has a right and a duty to his supporters to extract these concessions.

                           

Unlike Rob, I do not see the Democratic Party’s primary season as analogous to war. It’s more analogous to a debate among

business partners. Business partners seek common ground, not each other’s destruction. They have already agreed on the goal of the business (the Democratic Party). That goal is unseating Donald Trump for the good of America. To suggest that Sanders supporters are “welcome in the larger Democratic campaign” reminds me of how racist whites once spoke to black Americans. “You’re welcome in America as long as you do as we say!” That

attitude got the Democrats beat in 2016 and will beat them again in 2020. With all due regard to Henry and Rob, Sanders’s supporters deserve more than “courtesy and respect’ or “dignity and respect. Biden should treat them as partners.