Showing posts with label democratic party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label democratic party. Show all posts

Friday, August 14, 2020

BIDEN – HARRIS: A TICKET FOR THE AGES?


It’s done. Former Vice President Joe Biden
named California Senator Kamala Harris his vice presidential running mate. We tapped Harris as the favorite in our July 13 posting of odds on the contenders. Her selection didn’t come as a surprise, despite its historic nature. Now, she and Biden face two and a half months of campaigning in the weird world of a pandemic and resulting economic devastation against an unpopular, but cunning incumbent who’ll likely do anything to keep power.




The Person

The 55-year old Harris checks many boxes for a spot on a national ticket – elected three
times to statewide office in California, administrator of the second largest justice agency in America, experience on key senate committees (Judiciary and Intelligence). That experience and her education immunize her against tokenism charges. She ran for president in 2020 and acquitted herself well in the early debates, though she faded and dropped out before the primaries started. 

Harris represents several firsts. No black woman has been on a national ticket before nor has an Indian-American person of either gender. She’s the first graduate of a
historically black university (HBCU), Howard University, on a national ticket. Its alumni and former students include novelist Toni Morrison, civil rights leader Vernon Jordan, actors Phylicia Rashad and Chadwick Boseman, and Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall.  She’s the second black person nominated by a major party for national office. If she and Biden win, she’d become the first female vice president. 




The Biden Connection

A long-standing connection exists between Harris and the Biden family. In her campaign
memoir The Truths We Hold: An American Journey, Harris wrote glowingly  of her working relationship with Joe Biden’s now-deceased son, Beau, then attorney general of Delaware. While Harris held that position in California, they worked together on lawsuits against predatory mortgage lenders who precipitated the 2007 housing crisis. Harris called Beau Biden an “incredible friend and colleague” and “a man of principle and courage.” Joe Biden, in announcing he’d chosen Harris, alluded to his son’s high opinion of her.

Some thought her attack on Joe Biden in the first debate last summer might fray the relationship and keep him from picking her. She went after the former vice president over how he’d opposed busing in the 1970s. He demonstrated his political maturity by picking her anyway, noting recently that he doesn’t hold grudges.



The Politics

Much of the immediate discussion about Harris’s selection focused on what impact she might have on the race. Her graduation from
Howard and membership in the Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority and connection to  similar sororities offered the possibility of a massive mobilization of professional black women, the acknowledged backbone of the Democratic Party.  Some thought she might benefit from the “exotic factor” of Jamaican and Asian parentage, something akin to Barack Obama’s Africa-Kansas heritage. Others cautioned that Harris isn’t at the top of the ticket like Obama and the thrill of a person of color on a national ticket might be gone.


Calculating the impact of Harris’s prosecutorial background also occupied a lot
of attention. Some  progressives, especially African  American ones, regard  many prosecutors
with skepticism. Some give Harris credit for reforms while she headed the San Francisco district attorney’s office, but others don’t.





One certainty exists. Trump will try demonizing Harris. Right after Biden announced her selection, Trump labeled her “nasty” and “mean.” His campaign ran an ad claiming she’s a radical leftist who’d abolish police forces, raise taxes, and destroy the oil and gas industry. Some thought her selection, potentially putting her a heartbeat away from the presidency, will motivate Trump’s base to vote in larger numbers. 


Harris embodies many things Trump and his backers love hating – a woman, black, daughter of immigrants, progressive, and an
advocate of the rule of law. She faces the challenges women face in American politics. She must thread the needle between aggression and passivity, the classic cognitive dissonance dilemma.




The Bottom Line

In our May 11 post, we suggested Biden first focus on “what, not who” in the matter of a running mate. We noted the importance of picking someone “ready to play,” selecting a candidate compatible with him (we asked “Are they on the same page?”), and the need for choosing someone who could help heal a fractured, divided nation left in shambles by a historically inept president. We called that “Restorative Capacity.”


Despite the political analysis concerning the pick, we think Biden might have selected Harris because she best met the criteria we laid out. She had the most positives, given her combination of executive and legislative experience in government.  She also had the fewest negatives. Most of the things we can pick at her about are small or fixable.


Biden and whoever he picked, if they win, will have a huge job, much of it about things other than political ideology. The pandemic will likely remain with us when they take office.
They must dig the nation out of the economic hole the pandemic and Trump’s ineptitude indealing with it have caused. They have to restore respect for the rule of law and our basic institutions. They face a massive chore in reclaiming America’s standing in the world, beginning with repairing our alliances. Then there’s the racial divide the George Floyd case exposed. The list goes on.



We suspect Biden probably believes Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko when
they said in their book Do Running Mates Matter that vice presidential candidates don’t yield many votes. But, given his own experience as Barack Obama’s wingman, Biden also knows they can make a big difference in governing. Maybe that’s why he picked Kamala Harris.   

  

Thursday, March 19, 2020

THE DEMOCRATIC RACE: THE SANDERS EXIT STRATEGY


HOW SHOULD JOE BIDEN TREAT BERNIE SANDERS?

With four more primaries in the books, the odds appear even greater former Vice President Joe Biden will win the Democratic presidential nomination. The delegate math, and the calendar, make a comeback by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders almost impossible.
Biden on March 17 won primaries in Florida,
Illinois, and Arizona (Ohio postponed its scheduled primary until June due to coronavirus concerns). By the middle of the next day, it appeared Biden had a pledged delegate lead of almost 300 over Sanders. That may not seem an insurmountable margin since nomination requires 1991 delegates. The upcoming primary schedule, however, and the current dynamics of the race, make it unlikely Sanders can overtake Biden.
We offer Sanders some thoughts on his course going forward. Each of us has different advice for him.  

The Daunting Math
Twenty-eight contests remain between now and the end of the primary season in June. If the candidates split the remaining unallocated delegates, an unlikely scenario, given Biden’s advantages in certain places, he would still have a delegate lead of nearly 200 going into the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee. Sanders has said whoever enters the convention with the most delegates should get nominated, even without a 1991 majority.

An even split going forward would require a big change in the race. Biden has major
advantages in some upcoming primaries. Nate Silver of 538.com says Sanders needs a 20-point surge in the polls within the next week for any chance at getting nominated. That almost certainly won’t happen. What should Sanders – and Biden – do?

Henry: Work Behind the Scenes
I’m all for Biden reaching out to Sanders and his forces in a bid for party unity. But I think
this work should proceed quietly, outside the limelight. I certainly think Sanders should endorse Biden as a first step in an all-out unity campaign aimed at putting in place as fast as possible an effective plan for beating President Donald Trump. Both Biden and Sanders should treat that as Job I. Everything else is secondary.
 
Biden owes Sanders courtesy, respect, and
space for shutting down his campaign at a pace he finds comfortable, so long as that pace does not needlessly draw out the primary process. Beating Trump requires building an exceptional campaign infrastructure and the clock is ticking. The sooner Democrats start construction, the better.

Rob: Civility and Respect and That’s All
An old saw about wars holds that the winners write the history. Bernie Sanders should remember that as he contemplates what concessions he seeks from Joe Biden as the price of unifying the Democratic Party in 2020. Biden won; Sanders didn’t. Woodson’s list of demands he thinks Sanders should make, while laudable, sounds like an attempt at rewriting the history of this primary season. Biden won, in part, because Democrats – especially blacks and white
suburban women – rejected Bernie’s “revolution” and opted for someone who could put out the fire Trump started that now threatens the foundation of the American nation.

I’m all for welcoming Bernie’s supporters into the larger Democratic campaign. I hope Biden will hire some of his talented campaign staff, especially the people who masterminded his on-line fundraising effort. I hope Biden will, at all times, treat the Sanders forces with the dignity and respect they’ve earned by running such an effective campaign.  But, they –and Sanders himself—are not entitled to more than that. I hope the former vice president will resist promising anyone the moon. If elected, he has serious work ahead of him and he needs a minimum of encumbrances as he sets about that work. 
     
Woodson: Force Public Commitments
Elizabeth Warren has not endorsed Biden, though he has been the prohibitive favorite
for the nomination since the March 3 Super Tuesday primaries. Nevertheless, during the March 15 debate, Biden said he would choose a woman running mate and promote liberalizing the bankruptcy laws – all
Warren campaign positions. If Rob thinks Biden’s pronouncements were not the result of negotiations with Warren, I have a bridge in
Brooklyn to sell him. Biden needs Warren’s
 enthusiastic support to win the White House and knows it. She did what smart politicians do. She got Biden’s public embrace of her issues. She will offer her support soon enough.

Like Warren, Sanders has spent countless hours and millions of dollars in this
campaign. He also ran in 2016. Sanders will not drop out or throw his support to Biden without getting commitments from Biden on issues important to him, i.e. increasing the minimum wage, medical insurance for all, and free or subsidized college education.  Sanders has a right and a duty to his supporters to extract these concessions.
                           
Unlike Rob, I do not see the Democratic Party’s primary season as analogous to war. It’s more analogous to a debate among
business partners. Business partners seek common ground, not each other’s destruction. They have already agreed on the goal of the business (the Democratic Party). That goal is unseating Donald Trump for the good of America. To suggest that Sanders supporters are “welcome in the larger Democratic campaign” reminds me of how racist whites once spoke to black Americans. “You’re welcome in America as long as you do as we say!” That
attitude got the Democrats beat in 2016 and will beat them again in 2020. With all due regard to Henry and Rob, Sanders’s supporters deserve more than “courtesy and respect’ or “dignity and respect. Biden should treat them as partners.