PLAYING ODDSMAKERS: HANDICAPPING THE VEEP STAKES

Earlier we analyzed the Democratic vice-presidential selection process, focusing on criteria, not candidates. We said we’d comment on candidates later. Now with Joe Biden’s announcement just weeks away, we turn to the reported prospects.

Each of us grew up in Arkansas near Oaklawn Park, a thoroughbred race track in Hot Springs. We all spent afternoons there

watching the horses run and placing bets. One of us (Rob) religiously follows the Triple Crown races each year. We, therefore, know about the concept of “odds” – the likelihood an event will take place as opposed to the likelihood it won’t. So, now we lay odds on the reported field.

One Caveat

Much of the reporting about the veep stakes focuses on which prospect Biden reportedly has under consideration could help him win.

The likely answer is “nobody.” In their book, Do Running Mates Matter?, political scientists Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko conclude, “voters are very unlikely to choose a presidential ticket simply because they like or dislike the second-in-command.” A vice presidential pick voters doubt may make the electorate question the presidential candidate’s judgment (or vice versa), but the running mate “rarely” draws voters from that person’s demographic group or home state.

We suspect Biden knows this and will concentrate on two other things we emphasized – (1) compatibility with him and (2) competence. How does he get along with the person? Is she ready to be president?

Biden has said he’s picking a woman. Presidential nominees have twice tried female

running mates without success. Geraldine Ferraro went down with Walter Mondale in the 1984 Reagan landslide. Her husband’s real estate ventures proved a distraction from which the campaign never recovered. John McCain picked the woefully unprepared Sarah Palin in

2008, a mistake from which he never recovered. The Ferraro and Palin failures don’t doom the 2020 Democratic ticket. This is a different time and it’s not likely Biden will pick a Ferraro and certainly not a Palin.

Off to the Races

Keeping in mind (1) professors Devine and Kopko argue the usual political calculations don’t matter and (2) their analysis may not apply to vice presidential nominees of color because no presidential nominee has ever picked one, we project the odds as:  

·  Even Money – Kamala Harris. The

California senator checks boxes – twice elected to statewide office, ran for president putting her on the big stage, service on high profile senate committees. She can manage or overcome flaws like her prosecutorial record and a snarky communication style.

4-to-1 –Val Demings. A two-term Florida congresswoman and a star House

impeachment manager, she’s a hot prospect. A lot rides on how Biden views her experience as Orlando’s police chief. Is a law enforcement background a non-starter or is her knowledge of policing invaluable?

5-to-1 – Tammy Duckworth. Op-ed writers have pleaded the Illinois senator's case,

pointing out how her war hero record and dedication to service so starkly contrast President Donald Trump’s selfishness. For however much it counts, she’s Asian-American. Her doctoral degree, military experience, eight years in Congress, and service as Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs win her the resume race.

· 5-to-1 – Elizabeth Warren. The Massachusetts senator’s prospects rest on the idea she could mobilize the progressive

wing of the Democratic Party. If Devine and Kopko are right and that won’t happen, in today’s climate, the reasons for Biden, a 77- year- old white man, picking a 71-year-old white woman, go away.

· 6-to-1 – Keshia Lance Bottoms. Many would give the Atlanta mayor longer odds, but her

name remains high in the reporting. Somebody in Biden world likes her or has an ulterior motive for keeping her candidacy alive. Of the contenders, she’s worked hardest and longest on Biden’s campaign.

· 7-to-1 – Michelle Lujan Grisham. The good news -- she’s Hispanic, a constituency Biden

could do better with, and she’s a governor, historically good training for vice presidential nominees. The bad news -- hardly anyone outside her home state of New Mexico knows about her.

· 8-to-1 – Susan Rice. If Duckworth wins the paper resume race, Rice takes the ready-to- be-president contest. The former United

Nations Ambassador and national security adviser has been flawless in television interviews on Trump’s mishandling of the Russia bounty scandal. She has major and minor flaws Biden may not get past. She’s never held elective office. Nominating her would mean re-litigating the 2012 attack on U.S. interests by Islamic militants in Benghazi, Libya. There are family questions: Would black or white voters hold her interracial marriage against her (yes, Harris is in the same boat)? Would Democratic voters hold her son’s involvement with college Republicans at Stanford against her?

· 12-to-1 - Gretchen Whitmer, Karen Bass, Stacey Abrams, Tammy Baldwin. The odds on all have lengthened for different reasons.

Whitmer (Michigan governor) and Baldwin (Wisconsin senator) may have been on the list in the first place because of where  they’re from. Polls say Biden’s doing fine in those states on his own. Bass, a California congresswoman, just went on the list, apparently at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s urging. Biden’s team may have felt obligated to look her over. If Biden wants a black woman from California, Harris seems a more likely choice. Perhaps Governor Gavin Newson might appoint Bass to Harris’s senate seat. Abrams hasn’t been shy about letting everyone know she wants the job. Her prospects seem to have dimmed, perhaps because of that or because Biden’s people can’t get beyond the fact she’s never won an election for anything other than a Georgia state house seat. Maybe attorney general represents her best bet for a spot in a Biden administration.

Handicapping is a tough business, an inexact science. We understand someone not on this list might emerge.  Right now, the odds AGAINST that seem pretty good.