GEORGIA ON OUR MINDS: A TALE OF TWO SENATE RACES THAT COULD DETERMINE BIDEN’S EFFECTIVENESS

Something of a death struggle rages in Georgia as 2020 fades away and 2021 emerges. Democrats and Republicans have mobilized for runoff elections in two U.S.

Senate races with enormous implications. Those January 5 battles will decide control of the senate and, perhaps, the fate of much of incoming President Joe Biden’s agenda.

The Peach State ended up with these two

contests because its law requires that senators win a majority of the vote, even in a general election. Nobody in either race got a majority on November 3. Historically, Democrats don’t do well in runoff elections in Georgia. With the allure of the presidential race gone, many Democratic-leaning voters don’t show up. Biden’s narrow victory this year notwithstanding, Georgia has been a red state for a long time. Republicans have a structural advantage and much of the political community expects GOP wins in both races. Not every factor, however, points in that direction.

 

The Players

In one race, 33 - year old Democrat Jon Ossoff, a London School of Economics graduate who nearly won a congressional seat in a 2017 special election, faces incumbent Republican David Perdue for a full six - year term. Perdue,71, narrowly missed getting a majority in the general election. He’s seeking his second senate term.

Democrat Raphael Warnock, 51, serves as senior minister at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. The man who occupies Martin Luther King’s pulpit faces Senator Kelly Loeffler, 50, in the race for a two-year term. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appointed Loeffler

earlier this year to fill

the seat of Johnny Isakson, who resigned. Loeffler, a devoted Trump supporter, has extensive business interests, including ownership of the Atlanta Dream of the WNBA.

Corruption charges have dogged the Republican candidates as both have been accused of insider stock trading. They

allegedly sold stocks based on information received in closed-door senate meetings earlier this year about the damage certain industries would suffer in the coronavirus pandemic. In the current polarized political environment, the charges haven’t gotten much traction. Democrats apparently believe the worse about both Perdue and Loeffler and Republicans appear not to care much. Republicans make the usual they’re-too-liberal arguments against Ossoff and Warnock. Again, it’s unlikely the claims make much difference. The races come down to which tribe can get its members to the polls.    

 

The Stakes

When it was all said and done on November 3,

Democrats had 48 U.S. Senate seats (including two independents who affiliate with them) and Republicans 52. If Ossoff and Warnock knock off the Georgia incumbents, Democrats would control the senate by virtue of Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote. With that control, Democrats woul chair  committees and

Democratic leader Chuck Schumer would control the calendar and the ability to bring up bills. He could exercise the powers current majority leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky now wields so ruthlessly.

Control of the senate will say much about Biden’s ability to confirm cabinet and other

officials, make judicial appointments, and fulfill campaign promises on matters like climate change and racial equity. Biden believes he can work with Republicans, but he knows Democratic control of the senate would make

things so much easier and so much more possible. Biden and Harris have campaigned in Georgia for Ossoff and Warnock and one or both of them could make additional appearances before the election.

 

The Campaigns

For Democrats, the races are about turnout. If organizers like 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams can approach duplicating the turnout of black, Hispanic,

narrow win in the Asian, and young voters, especially in the fast growing, rapidly diversifying Atlanta suburbs that gave Biden his residential race, they believe they can win the senate races, despite the structural GOP advantages.

For a long time, Republicans fought among themselves about these runoffs. President

Trump claimed he lost Georgia because of voter fraud, despite a Republican governor and secretary of state. Some normal Trump allies suggested Republican voters should stay home and skip the runoffs because the system was rigged and their votes wouldn’t count. No evidence of that exists, of course; recounts produced the

same result as the initial tally in the presidential race. Still, some people believe Trump and that has created massive upheaval in Republican ranks.

The GOP infighting has subsided. Some trends in the polling have favored Perdue and Loeffler. Though both races remained statistically tied for much of the campaign, the incumbents edged upward in later polling.

Turnout, however, could tip things toward the Democrats. Early voting exceeded expectations and broke records for a runoff election. In the first week, the numbers approached those of the same time frame in the general election. No one knows if voters will sustain that pace, but that’s the goal of Abrams and her cohorts. If they reach it, Ossoff and Warnock have a chance.

Money and campaign workers have flooded

into 

the state. In races with razor thin margins like the polls show, anything can happen. Georgia is on the nation’s political mind and the January 5 outcome means a lot.

The tale is still to be told.

PLAYING ODDSMAKERS: HANDICAPPING THE VEEP STAKES

Earlier we analyzed the Democratic vice-presidential selection process, focusing on criteria, not candidates. We said we’d comment on candidates later. Now with Joe Biden’s announcement just weeks away, we turn to the reported prospects.

Each of us grew up in Arkansas near Oaklawn Park, a thoroughbred race track in Hot Springs. We all spent afternoons there

watching the horses run and placing bets. One of us (Rob) religiously follows the Triple Crown races each year. We, therefore, know about the concept of “odds” – the likelihood an event will take place as opposed to the likelihood it won’t. So, now we lay odds on the reported field.

One Caveat

Much of the reporting about the veep stakes focuses on which prospect Biden reportedly has under consideration could help him win.

The likely answer is “nobody.” In their book, Do Running Mates Matter?, political scientists Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko conclude, “voters are very unlikely to choose a presidential ticket simply because they like or dislike the second-in-command.” A vice presidential pick voters doubt may make the electorate question the presidential candidate’s judgment (or vice versa), but the running mate “rarely” draws voters from that person’s demographic group or home state.

We suspect Biden knows this and will concentrate on two other things we emphasized – (1) compatibility with him and (2) competence. How does he get along with the person? Is she ready to be president?

Biden has said he’s picking a woman. Presidential nominees have twice tried female

running mates without success. Geraldine Ferraro went down with Walter Mondale in the 1984 Reagan landslide. Her husband’s real estate ventures proved a distraction from which the campaign never recovered. John McCain picked the woefully unprepared Sarah Palin in

2008, a mistake from which he never recovered. The Ferraro and Palin failures don’t doom the 2020 Democratic ticket. This is a different time and it’s not likely Biden will pick a Ferraro and certainly not a Palin.

Off to the Races

Keeping in mind (1) professors Devine and Kopko argue the usual political calculations don’t matter and (2) their analysis may not apply to vice presidential nominees of color because no presidential nominee has ever picked one, we project the odds as:  

·  Even Money – Kamala Harris. The

California senator checks boxes – twice elected to statewide office, ran for president putting her on the big stage, service on high profile senate committees. She can manage or overcome flaws like her prosecutorial record and a snarky communication style.

4-to-1 –Val Demings. A two-term Florida congresswoman and a star House

impeachment manager, she’s a hot prospect. A lot rides on how Biden views her experience as Orlando’s police chief. Is a law enforcement background a non-starter or is her knowledge of policing invaluable?

5-to-1 – Tammy Duckworth. Op-ed writers have pleaded the Illinois senator's case,

pointing out how her war hero record and dedication to service so starkly contrast President Donald Trump’s selfishness. For however much it counts, she’s Asian-American. Her doctoral degree, military experience, eight years in Congress, and service as Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs win her the resume race.

· 5-to-1 – Elizabeth Warren. The Massachusetts senator’s prospects rest on the idea she could mobilize the progressive

wing of the Democratic Party. If Devine and Kopko are right and that won’t happen, in today’s climate, the reasons for Biden, a 77- year- old white man, picking a 71-year-old white woman, go away.

· 6-to-1 – Keshia Lance Bottoms. Many would give the Atlanta mayor longer odds, but her

name remains high in the reporting. Somebody in Biden world likes her or has an ulterior motive for keeping her candidacy alive. Of the contenders, she’s worked hardest and longest on Biden’s campaign.

· 7-to-1 – Michelle Lujan Grisham. The good news -- she’s Hispanic, a constituency Biden

could do better with, and she’s a governor, historically good training for vice presidential nominees. The bad news -- hardly anyone outside her home state of New Mexico knows about her.

· 8-to-1 – Susan Rice. If Duckworth wins the paper resume race, Rice takes the ready-to- be-president contest. The former United

Nations Ambassador and national security adviser has been flawless in television interviews on Trump’s mishandling of the Russia bounty scandal. She has major and minor flaws Biden may not get past. She’s never held elective office. Nominating her would mean re-litigating the 2012 attack on U.S. interests by Islamic militants in Benghazi, Libya. There are family questions: Would black or white voters hold her interracial marriage against her (yes, Harris is in the same boat)? Would Democratic voters hold her son’s involvement with college Republicans at Stanford against her?

· 12-to-1 - Gretchen Whitmer, Karen Bass, Stacey Abrams, Tammy Baldwin. The odds on all have lengthened for different reasons.

Whitmer (Michigan governor) and Baldwin (Wisconsin senator) may have been on the list in the first place because of where  they’re from. Polls say Biden’s doing fine in those states on his own. Bass, a California congresswoman, just went on the list, apparently at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s urging. Biden’s team may have felt obligated to look her over. If Biden wants a black woman from California, Harris seems a more likely choice. Perhaps Governor Gavin Newson might appoint Bass to Harris’s senate seat. Abrams hasn’t been shy about letting everyone know she wants the job. Her prospects seem to have dimmed, perhaps because of that or because Biden’s people can’t get beyond the fact she’s never won an election for anything other than a Georgia state house seat. Maybe attorney general represents her best bet for a spot in a Biden administration.

Handicapping is a tough business, an inexact science. We understand someone not on this list might emerge.  Right now, the odds AGAINST that seem pretty good.  

            

THE MID-TERMS: SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE?

Is the country moving from red, white, and blue to Black, Brown, Red, Yellow, and White?

People from all political persuasions could celebrate something and lament something about this week’s mid-term elections, dubbed the most important in several generations. And, they’re not over. Too-close-to-call races in Arizona and Florida, and a late November runoff in Mississippi, mean the final makeup of the United States Senate remains uncertain. Continued vote counting in California leaves the ultimate size of the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives undecided. Remaining absentee and provisional ballots, and possible court action, prevent resolution of Georgia’s historic gubernatorial race. The wild ride goes on.

Democratic Joy

Whether Democrats could flip the House got much of the pre-election attention. They did, gaining perhaps 40 seats, depending on the outcome in California where tabulation of mail-in and absentee ballots continues. Democrats picked up seven governorships, including several in the upper mid-west, where Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign

cratered. Of the states that touch the Great Lakes, all but two, Ohio and perpetually Republican Indiana, now have Democratic governors. Democratic chief executives will lead battleground states Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, likely helping the party’s 2020 presidential nominee.

Democrats can celebrate the ethnic and cultural diversity of their wining candidates. Kansas and New Mexico sent the first Native-American women to Congress. Michigan

Deb Haaland & Sharice Davids/PhotoCred: Bustle.com

   

and Minnesota elected the first Muslim congresswomen.  Massachusetts chose its first African-American U.S. Representative. New York’s 14^th district picked the youngest member of Congress ever, a 29-year old Puerto Rican from the South Bronx. Democrats elected an openly gay governor in Colorado, re-elected an openly gay U.S. Senator from Wisconsin, and re-elected an avowedly bisexual governor in Oregon.

Close doesn’t really count in politics, but Democratic hopes for the future soared because Texas senatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke took Republican Ted Cruz to the

wire, aiding Democratic state legislative victories in the process. Andrew Gillum apparently fell short of becoming the first black governor of Florida, though late tabulated votes might throw that race into a recount. In Georgia, at this writing, Stacey Abrams continues her quest to become the first African-American woman ever elected governor of an American state. These close calls provide inspiration, and roadmaps, for future Democratic wins.

Republican Success

The GOP not only held the Senate, it expanded its majority, possibly gaining three seats. Republicans ousted Democratic Senators in Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota, all states Donald Trump won big in 2016. Trump campaigned relentlessly in those states (and in Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester barely survived). Trump also concentrated on Florida, where Gillum appears to have lost the governor’s race and Bill Nelson, the incumbent Democratic senator, trails and probably can win only through a recount. Trump’s campaigning, based mostly on fear of immigrants, held together the Republican base. Going into the 2020 election, the GOP’s dominance of small town and rural America presents the biggest obstacle for Democrats in their effort to oust Trump from the White House and recapture the Senate.

No Unmitigated Happiness

Though both parties can celebrate, both should curb their enthusiasm. Democratic failures this year make flipping the Senate in 2020 less likely, though the map looks more favorable. Democrats have a problem in senatorial races in the middle of the country (and the South) where rural areas and small towns overwhelmingly vote Republican and Democrats haven’t convinced rural and southern white voters their policies benefit them and they haven’t generated a stronger turnout in the cities. Nothing in the 2018 results suggests that problem has gone away.

In many states, Democrats faced, and did not overcome, the two – headed monster created by the disaster of the 2010 mid-terms – gerrymandering and voter suppression. Democrats may win the popular vote in this year’s House races by six to eight points, depending on the California totals. Except for gerrymandering perpetuated by Republican governors and state legislatures, many elected in the 2010 mid-terms, such a popular vote victory might have yielded 60 House seats, not the currently projected 40. Voter suppression, the other legacy of the 2010 elections, remains a problem, limiting the black vote in southern and mid-western states, and keeping Latinos from being a bigger factor in Texas, the West, and Florida. 

Republicans shouldn’t jump for joy either. Despite keeping the Senate, they lost their advantage in the upper mid-west because of defeats in gubernatorial races there. More broadly, with health care, Democrats found an issue for which Republicans seemingly have no answer, at least not one that satisfies both their donor class and citizens clamoring for expanded coverage and protection for pre-existing conditions.

High turnout of young voters (who favored Democrats by 35 points), the GOP’s perpetual problem with blacks, a Democratic trend in the fast growing Asian-American demographic, and continued erosion of Republican support from white women (who split 49-49 in House races this year, while having voted 55-43 for GOP House candidates in 2016) cannot encourage Republicans thinking about the future. Things may appear fine now with Trump and his base firmly in control. But a day of reckoning is coming for the GOP when changing demographics overwhelm the party, even in southern states. The razor thin wins in Florida and (possibly) Georgia might not happen in four years.

The lesson for both sides from the 2018 mid-terms: Offer leadership to more, not fewer citizens.