THE MID-TERMS: SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE?

Is the country moving from red, white, and blue to Black, Brown, Red, Yellow, and White?

People from all political persuasions could celebrate something and lament something about this week’s mid-term elections, dubbed the most important in several generations. And, they’re not over. Too-close-to-call races in Arizona and Florida, and a late November runoff in Mississippi, mean the final makeup of the United States Senate remains uncertain. Continued vote counting in California leaves the ultimate size of the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives undecided. Remaining absentee and provisional ballots, and possible court action, prevent resolution of Georgia’s historic gubernatorial race. The wild ride goes on.

Democratic Joy

Whether Democrats could flip the House got much of the pre-election attention. They did, gaining perhaps 40 seats, depending on the outcome in California where tabulation of mail-in and absentee ballots continues. Democrats picked up seven governorships, including several in the upper mid-west, where Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign

cratered. Of the states that touch the Great Lakes, all but two, Ohio and perpetually Republican Indiana, now have Democratic governors. Democratic chief executives will lead battleground states Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, likely helping the party’s 2020 presidential nominee.

Democrats can celebrate the ethnic and cultural diversity of their wining candidates. Kansas and New Mexico sent the first Native-American women to Congress. Michigan

Deb Haaland & Sharice Davids/PhotoCred: Bustle.com

   

and Minnesota elected the first Muslim congresswomen.  Massachusetts chose its first African-American U.S. Representative. New York’s 14^th district picked the youngest member of Congress ever, a 29-year old Puerto Rican from the South Bronx. Democrats elected an openly gay governor in Colorado, re-elected an openly gay U.S. Senator from Wisconsin, and re-elected an avowedly bisexual governor in Oregon.

Close doesn’t really count in politics, but Democratic hopes for the future soared because Texas senatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke took Republican Ted Cruz to the

wire, aiding Democratic state legislative victories in the process. Andrew Gillum apparently fell short of becoming the first black governor of Florida, though late tabulated votes might throw that race into a recount. In Georgia, at this writing, Stacey Abrams continues her quest to become the first African-American woman ever elected governor of an American state. These close calls provide inspiration, and roadmaps, for future Democratic wins.

Republican Success

The GOP not only held the Senate, it expanded its majority, possibly gaining three seats. Republicans ousted Democratic Senators in Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota, all states Donald Trump won big in 2016. Trump campaigned relentlessly in those states (and in Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester barely survived). Trump also concentrated on Florida, where Gillum appears to have lost the governor’s race and Bill Nelson, the incumbent Democratic senator, trails and probably can win only through a recount. Trump’s campaigning, based mostly on fear of immigrants, held together the Republican base. Going into the 2020 election, the GOP’s dominance of small town and rural America presents the biggest obstacle for Democrats in their effort to oust Trump from the White House and recapture the Senate.

No Unmitigated Happiness

Though both parties can celebrate, both should curb their enthusiasm. Democratic failures this year make flipping the Senate in 2020 less likely, though the map looks more favorable. Democrats have a problem in senatorial races in the middle of the country (and the South) where rural areas and small towns overwhelmingly vote Republican and Democrats haven’t convinced rural and southern white voters their policies benefit them and they haven’t generated a stronger turnout in the cities. Nothing in the 2018 results suggests that problem has gone away.

In many states, Democrats faced, and did not overcome, the two – headed monster created by the disaster of the 2010 mid-terms – gerrymandering and voter suppression. Democrats may win the popular vote in this year’s House races by six to eight points, depending on the California totals. Except for gerrymandering perpetuated by Republican governors and state legislatures, many elected in the 2010 mid-terms, such a popular vote victory might have yielded 60 House seats, not the currently projected 40. Voter suppression, the other legacy of the 2010 elections, remains a problem, limiting the black vote in southern and mid-western states, and keeping Latinos from being a bigger factor in Texas, the West, and Florida. 

Republicans shouldn’t jump for joy either. Despite keeping the Senate, they lost their advantage in the upper mid-west because of defeats in gubernatorial races there. More broadly, with health care, Democrats found an issue for which Republicans seemingly have no answer, at least not one that satisfies both their donor class and citizens clamoring for expanded coverage and protection for pre-existing conditions.

High turnout of young voters (who favored Democrats by 35 points), the GOP’s perpetual problem with blacks, a Democratic trend in the fast growing Asian-American demographic, and continued erosion of Republican support from white women (who split 49-49 in House races this year, while having voted 55-43 for GOP House candidates in 2016) cannot encourage Republicans thinking about the future. Things may appear fine now with Trump and his base firmly in control. But a day of reckoning is coming for the GOP when changing demographics overwhelm the party, even in southern states. The razor thin wins in Florida and (possibly) Georgia might not happen in four years.

The lesson for both sides from the 2018 mid-terms: Offer leadership to more, not fewer citizens.