REPUBLICAN REJECTION OF THE JANUARY 6 COMMISSION: IS THIS WORSE THAN MEETS THE EYE?

Why would President Joe Biden say on Memorial Day that “Democracy itself is in peril?” No modern president has issued a comparable warning.

Military veteran and former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, a one-time Republican Senator from Nebraska, suggested a military coup could occur in America when he said, “The real threat is internal.” He added that America’s future is “in jeopardy.” What are Biden and Hagel worried about? What are they telling us?

Are they afraid one of our major political parties – the Republican Party – has become the anti-democracy party?

If not Treason, What?

On January 6, hundreds of mostly white people stormed the U.S. Capitol. They hoisted the Confederate flag, constructed a hangman’s noose, and overcame Capitol police with guns, knives, bear spray, clubs, and

poles. They took over both congressional chambers and chanted things like “Hang Mike Pence” and “Kill Nancy Pelosi.” Their invasion ultimately caused five deaths.

For more than four hours, the mob disrupted

congressional certification of Electoral College votes. Securing the Capitol took that amount of time. In all American history, the United States Capitol building had never been taken over by domestic invaders and only once –during the War of 1812 – by foreigners.

Though many in the crowd wore Trump

clothing and carried Trump signs, some in the right wing media claimed the insurgents were actually Black Lives Matter and Antifa members masquerading as Trump supporters. Some suspect

Republican members of Congress may have helped organize the invasion or at least enabled it.

 

Who’s Complicit?

House Homeland Security Chairman Bennie Thompson of Mississippi and the ranking

Republican on that committee, New York’s John Katko, drafted bipartisan legislation that would have created an independent commission to investigate the January 6 insurrection. House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy regularly consulted Katko during that process and Thompson gave Katko all he asked for in the negotiations. Still, McCarthy withdrew his support and urged that Republicans vote against the measure. Only 35 GOP members ended up voting with Democrats when the measure passed the House.

In the Senate, Republicans launched a filibuster, meaning the legislation needed 60 votes. Just seven Republicans joined 50 Democrats in voting yes, so the measure failed.

               

Why would 43 of the 50 Republican senators not

want answers to the questions surrounding the insurrection? Who organized it, for example? Why were the invaders determined to overthrow the democratic process by violent means? What were Republican senators afraid of? Why would they not support bipartisan legislation aimed at getting the facts about such an unprecedented domestic attack on the American Capitol?  Something is clearly afloat.

One obvious answer lies in the control Donald Trump still exerts over the base of the Republican

Party. In controlling that base, he controls members of Congress it elects. “He has a grip over politicians because he has a grip over voters,” says Carol Leonnig, author of Zero Fail: The Rise and

Fall of the Secret Service. These elected officials want to maintain their offices  and the benefits that go with serving the interests of movement conservatism. An interlocking set of institutions and alliances wins elections by stoking cultural and racial anxiety while using its power in pushing an elitist economic agenda, as  Paul Krugman writes in Arguing with Zombies. Since Republicans want to regain control of the House and Senate, they know they can’t do so without the white lemming that makes up the Republican base.

In the wake of the GOP’s rejection of the January 6

commission measure, former Trump national security adviser Michal Flynn, once a three-star general in the U.S. Army, told a QAnon conference a military coup “should happen” in the United States. Flynn referred to events in Myanmar, where the military overthrew a democratically elected government on the basis of unproven allegations of voter fraud. Other similarly disturbing statements from Trump supporters haven’t gotten the attention Flynn got, but it appears treasonous comments are becoming common place among Republicans and Trump supporters.

 

So What’s the Bargain?

Lyndon Johnson, the nation’s 36^th president, once said, “If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”

Donald Trump ran for president in 2016 as the

champion of the little guy. His only significant legislative achievement, however, was a tax cut for the rich that ripped a hole in the social safety net his blue-collar supporters need. So, what do those supporters get out of the deal? Mostly, it seems, what President Johnson told us – a chance to look down on someone.      

Trump no longer pretends he’s going to make life better for working class whites in his base. They get xenophobic diatribes and racist venom directed at blacks, browns, and Asians but not much else. In the final analysis, Trump gives them someone they can look down on. Meantime, with the support of that base, the Republican Party has become the anti-democracy party. It seeks to deprive all but white people of the benefits of democracy. That’s the Faustian bargain. So they can look down on blacks, browns, Asians, and other out groups, Trump supporters discard democracy, with the complicity of their leaders.

So, we ask again – what do Biden and Hagel know? If we ignore the clear and present danger this “deal,” this “bargain” Trump’s supporters and GOP leaders have struck, we could all lose.  

                            

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020: THE LAST HURRAH

 

At long last, it’s here. One week from the date of

this post, the nation begins counting votes in the 2020 presidential election. Before that starts, we have things to say about the last days of the campaign and what’s at stake. We’ve been writing about the 2020 election for two years. On the eve of hearing the people speak, we offer an updated perspective.

The Race

Many things could happen, though they seemingly

fall into three broad categories: (1) a decisive Joe Biden win; (2) a historic Donald Trump comeback; or (3) chaos resulting from a too-close-to-call election that encourages ballot challenges and litigation initiated by Trump. With incredibly high stakes, the country sets sail on an unpredictable journey that will likely speak volumes about America’s future.

Not much has changed going into the final week from the situation we detailed on October 20. Biden enjoys a solid lead in the national polls and a narrower, but not insubstantial, lead in the key

battle ground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump, however, retains a precarious path to victory. No “October Surprise” that might shift the race has occurred and, as the clock ticks, one appears less and less likely.

The Last Debate

Trump and Biden faced off October 22 in their final televised debate. Under tight control by moderator Kristen Welker of NBC, Trump interrupted Biden much

less frequently than in the first debate and, for the most part, stylistically comported himself much better than on September 29. That doesn’t mean he didn’t lie and mislead as he’s done throughout his term. Fact checkers still had a busy night.

In post-debate ads and appearances, Trump tried capitalizing on Biden’s statements about transitioning from the oil industry in fighting climate change, especially in petroleum-rich states like Texas and Pennsylvania. The right- wing media claimed that would change the race.  Most mainstream pundits, however, lauded Biden’s performance. Biden won CNN’s instant poll, 53-39, with women rating him higher by 60-35. Trump didn’t close his gender gap.

       

CNN Instant Poll conducted by SSI's

Perhaps not unexpectedly for three lawyers,   

Left to Right: Rob Wiley, Henry Jones, Woodson Walker

among us concurring and dissenting opinions emerged. Woodson, though agreeing Biden did himself little harm, contended he missed opportunities for a clearer, more forceful statement on racial justice and a more cogent, better organized explanation of his coronavirus plan. Rob disagreed and thought the former vice president performed admirably in nearly all respects. Henry noted the inherent difficulty in standing on a stage alone before millions of people while facing a hostile, mendacious, adversary and a media-savvy moderator.

Henry’s observation suggests we ought not forget the notion MSNBC host and former senate staffer Lawrence O’Donnell reminds viewers of every chance he gets. The think-on-your-feet skills

needed for presidential debating bear little relationship to the capacity for deliberation and reasoned, data-driven decision making required of a president. On this score, the three of us agree. Biden wins hands down.

After the debate, the candidates, their running mates, and surrogates (like former President Barack Obama) hit the road, barnstorming the battle ground states and blitzing the airwaves with ads wherever they had money to buy time. Biden has

more money, so more people will see his ads in more places. Trump kept holding his signature rallies, virus or no virus. Vice President Mike Pence continued holding rallies though five members of his staff tested positive for the virus. Biden and running mate Kamala Harris continued their restrained approach to campaigning in the pandemic.

The Stakes

The horse race is what it is, and we’ll know the

outcome soon enough. What this election means transcends the contest. We accept the conclusions of those like the bipartisan group of over 500 national security experts, including 22 four-star military officers, who back Biden, the Republican-inspired Lincoln Project, and the

plethora of publications like USA TODAY and the New England Journal of Medicine that don’t usually endorse candidates but have done so this time. They’ve recommended that their diverse audiences support Biden because they see another four years of Trump as an existential threat to American Democracy.

      

We need not again list the current president’s sins. We’ve cataloged them and commented on them time after time in the nearly four years he has been in office. We have pointed out the ways in which his behavior disrespects the rule of law, denigrates our most significant

and important institutions, and undermines our standing in the world. Indeed, if Biden wins, coronavirus notwithstanding, he may face his biggest challenge in restoring America’s standing among nations, particularly our traditional allies in Europe and Asia.

Should Biden capture the presidency, we will have plenty to say about what tasks he should prioritize and about how he should navigate the difficult job of

putting the country back together again. For now, it’s enough to say we think it imperative the American people give him the job.

This is crunch time. Millions have already

voted,  navigating around the voter suppression efforts of Trump and his Republican cronies. The signs have been positive and turnout may break all kinds of records. But this isn’t done yet. As we write and post this, another week of voting remains. That time is too valuable for anyone not to make use of it.

Vote! We believe our democracy hangs in

the balance.

THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE: PENCE AND HARRIS HAVE THEIR SAY

 

Vice presidential debates are seldom memorable, but the October 7 contest between Republican Mike Pence and Democrat Kamala Harris broke new ground. Aside from the first appearance by a woman of color on the vice presidential debate stage,

this debate featured a fly who by the end of the evening had 4,067 social media followers. The Fly landed in Vice President Pence’s hair and stayed over two minutes. We could comment on the symbolism. But we won’t. Don’t ever say 2020 hasn’t been a strange year.

Beyond the adventures of The Fly, most post-debate analysis focused on whether it

changed the trajectory of a race that’s looking like a potential blowout. The Biden-Harris ticket entered the debate leading by 9.5 points in the fivethirtyeight.com polling average. Polls released right before the debate showed Biden-Harris ahead by as much as 16 points.

We agree with the pundit consensus that

nothing in the debate fundamentally changed the race even though CNN’s instant poll showed Harris winning, 59-38.   Women thought Harris won, 69-31.

 

Each Had Their Moments

Both candidates entered the debate with specific objectives, some multi-layered and nuanced. Pence, a smooth speaker who

politely, even gently, parrots Republican talking points, defended President Trump’s disturbing coronavirus, climate change, and foreign policy failures. He tried presenting more of a conventional Republican agenda and less of Trump’s personality cult, arguably describing a presidency that doesn’t exist. He pushed the

case Harris will lead Biden down a leftist, socialist path that over- taxes and overregulates. Pence made his points and got whatever mileage he could out of raising that set of issues.

Harris, being part of a ticket that’s ahead, but

still somewhat unknown herself, had to get people comfortable with the idea she can handle the presidency since Biden would take office at age 78. Responding to the succession question, she reminded voters of her resume as a three-time

elected official. She had strong moments on restoring America’s role in the world and the virtue in the Biden-Harris candidacy of having significant Republican support. She also tried laying out the ticket’s program since Biden didn’t get to in the first presidential debate

because of Trump’s interruptions and bullying. She effectively put the Affordable Care Act on the ballot with the reminder, “They’re coming for you,” when she identified a list of impacts terminating the act would cause. The instant poll results and the commentary suggested she succeeded.

 

Missed Opportunities

If both candidates had their moments, both missed opportunities. Harris, for example, could have used the Breonna Taylor question

in promoting how a Biden Justice Department might use federal civil rights laws in such cases and remedy the failures of Bill Barr as attorney general.  She also could have been stronger in her condemnation of the White House events that apparently spread the corona virus.

Pence, for his part, simply ducked a number of questions, like whether he had conferred with Trump about a transfer of power in light of the president’s covid-19 illness. The country needs an answer to that question and a good one might have done the Trump campaign some political good.  Pence may have been catering to Trump with his refusal to adhere to the time limits, but had he followed them, he might have gained credibility for making the debate process more dignified and civil. Critically, Pence didn’t answer the core values question of whether Trump will peacefully transfer power if he loses.             

 

Gender and Race

Inevitably gender and race were likely to

become part of this debate. The historic nature of the Harris candidacy assured that. The gender component manifest itself most in Pence’s incessant habit of exceeding his time (which moderator Susan Page of USA Today tried

controlling, mostly unsuccessfully) and the fact he frequently interrupted Harris. He didn’t do it as rudely and as aggressively as Trump did on September 29, but he did it. It didn’t go unnoticed. Women commentators on the cable networks took him to task, as did our female life partners. Like Harris, they didn’t appreciate Pence’s “lectures” about her record or approach to certain issues.

Pence also probably didn’t earn the Republican ticket any minority group votes by denying the existence of systemic racism or by supporting the grand jury findings in the Taylor case that resulted in no indictments against the police officers who killed her. Given the racial reckoning going on in the country, few reasons exist for taking those positions except knee jerk support for police or cultivating the backing of white nationalists and similar minded individuals. Perhaps Pence feared distinguishing himself from Trump.    

 

Back to the Fly

The Fly generated a lot of post-debate frivolity,

including Biden’s use of a fly swatter in a fundraising pitch. Debates in presidential campaigns often disappoint and people need something to talk about aside from each candidate’s delivery and style. The Fly added that this time. Still, it

was serious business as the vice-presidential debate – and we usually only have one – has become an important part in the process of electing a president. With both presidential candidates in their 70s, getting a sense of the woman and man who might replace them mattered.

Voters who want Trump’s policies – if not his style –  can take comfort in Pence’s performance, for all its flaws. He has some of Trump’s capacity for rudeness, but he wasn’t outlandish, just disconcerting. He knows the drill on the Republican agenda.

Harris showed she and Biden are on the same page. We think they have the better of it on policy, character, and preparation. Harris showed herself capable of taking the baton from Biden and running with it should that become necessary, suggesting she achieved her most important objective.