Despite much progress, a threat has appeared that could
derail solving the pandemic problem. That threat compels us to join those
sounding an alarm.
To some extent, the coronavirus pandemic has always been about numbers. We know many of the painful ones – 29.2
million infections
and 530,000 deaths by the first week in March; about 22
million jobs lost or diminished; 328.2 million (in other words, everybody)
lives disrupted. And now, another set of numbers offers hope for an end to the
madness – decreased cases, over 59 million people who’ve had at least one shot
of vaccine, maybe 255 million people (every adult in the country) vaccinated by
summer.
The problem lies in the fact states have started opening
their economies by lifting restrictions on capacity in public venues, making
social distancing harder, and eliminating mask requirements. It’s
a trickle
now, but it could soon become a flood. As one doctor warned,
don’t spike the football after making a few first downs, wait until you’re in
the end zone.
mask mandates and limits on occupancy in eating places and other
businesses, steps
already taken by Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis. GOP chief executives
in Iowa and Montana ended mask requirements in February. Republican governors
in Arkansas and Alabama said they’d suspend mask orders in late March and early
April, though that move in Arkansas depends on testing results and
hospitalizations.
One Democratic governor, Connecticut’s Ned Lamont, kept the mask requirement in place, but eliminated indoor
dining capacity limits. He also expanded how many people can attend sporting
events.
Different motives likely lay behind these moves, some
probably benign, some likely cynical, and some perhaps the result of citizen
pressure. Benign explanations included increasingvaccination rates and a declining number of infections. Continuing politicization
of the pandemic by former President Donald Trump and his allies made it likely some GOP governors simply sought
political favor with Trump supporters who never liked masks, social distancing,
and other anti-COVID 19 measures. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, in particular, wants to position himself for a presidential
run in 2024 and drew blowback from Texas Democrats who suspected a political
motive in his roll back order. These actions place political interests above
those of the citizenry.
We admit public pressure could affect some governors. Americans,
even those who support mask wearing and other anti-COVID 19 safety measures,
are tired of how the virus has disrupted their lives. They want a return to
normal, even despite evidence the fight isn’t over. We think such an attitude
equates to taking a cast off a broken leg before the bone heals because the
patient finds the cast inconvenient. In this instance, removing the cast could
have deadly consequences.
about the
trajectory of the pandemic, and added, “Now is not the time to relax critical
safeguards.” Other public health experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci also warned against prematurely discarding masks and social
distancing requirements.
A Personal Story
One of us, Rob, suffered a severe case of COVID 19 last fall,
spending five days in a hospital, three of them on oxygen, though not a
respirator. After a harrowing day of hallucinations (“I thought I was walking
on the ceiling,” he said), his condition dictated treatment with experimental drugs
and steroids. Almost as bad as the hospital time was the recovery. Unlike the
recovery from other illnesses in a life of almost seven decades, this recovery featured
not a smooth road back to good health but resembled a discomforting trek along
a jagged, uneven path littered with rocks and boulders. For every two steps
forward, the route required at least one backwards. For the better part of a
month after the hospital, nothing tasted good, not even water. The sense of
smell vanished. Yes, some people suffered mild forms of the illness, but no one
should underestimate the perils of even a moderate case. This isn’t the flu.
Rob’s advice: Do everything possible to avoid getting this disease.
A War Metaphor
After a vigorous discussion, we found
ourselves agreeing with Woodson’s label of
“irresponsible” for those who give in to
impatience and prematurely discard measures that health experts know stop the
spread of
COVID 19. He has a point that this is a war, as
the
infection and death numbers show. An army can’t quit before winning the war,
especially not with victory in sight, when a loss could decimate the entire
army.
Through the efforts of scientists, we
have vaccines that work. Thanks to now having a president who takes the issue
seriously, vaccine distribution works. The president says by the end of May
every adult American, about 255 million people, who wants a vaccination can get
one. That’s a real win. We can lose now only by giving the game away. No reason
exists for doing that. We can make the numbers work now.
At long last, it’s here. One week
from the date of
this post, the nation begins counting votes in the 2020 presidential election. Before that starts,we have things to say about the last days of the campaign and what’s at
stake. We’ve been writing about the 2020 election for two years. On the eve of
hearing the people speak, we offer an updated perspective.
The Race
Many things could happen, though they
seemingly
fall into three broad categories: (1) a decisive Joe Biden win; (2) a
historic Donald Trump comeback; or (3) chaos resulting from a too-close-to-call
election that encourages ballot challenges and litigation initiated by Trump.
With incredibly high stakes, the country sets sail on an unpredictable journey
that will likely speak volumes about America’s future.
Not much has changed going into the
final week from the situation we detailed on October 20. Biden enjoys a solid lead in the
national polls and a narrower, but not insubstantial, lead in the key
battle ground
states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump, however, retains a
precarious path to victory. No “October Surprise” that might shift the race has occurred
and, as the clock ticks, one appears less and less likely.
The Last Debate
Trump and Biden faced off October 22
in their final televised debate. Under tight control by moderator Kristen Welker of NBC, Trump interrupted Biden much
less frequently than in
the first debate and, for the most part, stylistically comported himself much
better than on September 29. That doesn’t mean he didn’t lie and mislead as
he’s done throughout his term. Fact checkers still had a busy night.
In post-debate ads and appearances, Trump tried capitalizing on Biden’s statements about
transitioning from the oil industry in fighting climate change, especially in petroleum-rich
states like Texas and Pennsylvania. The right- wing media claimed that would
change the race. Most mainstream pundits,
however, lauded Biden’s performance. Biden won CNN’s instant poll, 53-39, with
women rating him higher by 60-35. Trump didn’t close his gender gap.
CNN
Instant Poll conducted by SSI's
Perhaps not unexpectedly for three
lawyers,
Left
to Right: Rob Wiley, Henry Jones, Woodson Walker
among us concurring and dissenting opinions emerged. Woodson,
though agreeing Biden did himself little harm, contended he missed
opportunities for a clearer, more forceful statement on racial justice and a
more cogent, better organized explanation of his coronavirus plan. Rob
disagreed and thought the former vice president performed admirably in nearly
all respects. Henry noted the inherent difficulty in standing on a stage alone
before millions of people while facing a hostile, mendacious, adversary and a
media-savvy moderator.
Henry’s observation suggests we ought
not forget the notion MSNBC host and former senate staffer Lawrence O’Donnell reminds viewers of every chance he gets. The
think-on-your-feet skills
needed for presidential debating bear little relationship
to the capacity for deliberation and reasoned, data-driven decision making required
of a president. On this score, the three of us agree. Biden wins hands down.
After the debate, the candidates,
their running mates, and surrogates (like former President Barack Obama) hit the road, barnstorming the battle ground states and
blitzing the airwaves with ads wherever they had money to buy time. Biden has
more money, so more people will see his ads in more places. Trump kept holding
his signature rallies, virus or no virus. Vice President Mike Pence continued holding rallies though five members of his staff tested
positive for the virus. Biden and running mate Kamala Harris continued their restrained
approach to campaigning in the pandemic.
The Stakes
The horse race is what it is, and
we’ll know the
outcome soon enough. What this
election means transcends the contest. We accept the conclusions of those like
the bipartisan group of over 500 national security experts, including 22
four-star military officers, who back Biden, the Republican-inspired Lincoln Project, and the
plethora of publications
likeUSA TODAYand the New England Journal of Medicine that don’t usually endorse candidates but have done
so this time. They’ve recommended that their diverse audiences support Biden because
they see another four years of Trump as an existential threat to American Democracy.
We need not again list the current president’s sins. We’ve
cataloged them and commented on them time after time in the nearly four years he
has been in office. We have pointed out the ways in which his behavior
disrespects the rule of law, denigrates our most significant
and important
institutions, and undermines our standingin the world. Indeed, if Biden wins,
coronavirus notwithstanding, he may face his biggest challenge in restoring
America’s standing among nations, particularly our traditional allies in Europe
and Asia.
Should Biden capture the presidency,
we will have plenty to say about what tasks he should prioritize and about how
he should navigate thedifficult job of
putting the country
back together again. For now, it’s enough to say we think it imperative the
American people give him the job.
This is crunch time. Millions have
already
voted, navigating around the voter suppression efforts of Trump and his Republican cronies. The
signs have been positive and turnout may break all kinds of records. But this
isn’t done yet. As we write and post this, another week of voting remains. That
time is too valuable for anyone not to make use of it.
