PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020: THE LAST HURRAH

 

At long last, it’s here. One week from the date of

this post, the nation begins counting votes in the 2020 presidential election. Before that starts, we have things to say about the last days of the campaign and what’s at stake. We’ve been writing about the 2020 election for two years. On the eve of hearing the people speak, we offer an updated perspective.

The Race

Many things could happen, though they seemingly

fall into three broad categories: (1) a decisive Joe Biden win; (2) a historic Donald Trump comeback; or (3) chaos resulting from a too-close-to-call election that encourages ballot challenges and litigation initiated by Trump. With incredibly high stakes, the country sets sail on an unpredictable journey that will likely speak volumes about America’s future.

Not much has changed going into the final week from the situation we detailed on October 20. Biden enjoys a solid lead in the national polls and a narrower, but not insubstantial, lead in the key

battle ground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump, however, retains a precarious path to victory. No “October Surprise” that might shift the race has occurred and, as the clock ticks, one appears less and less likely.

The Last Debate

Trump and Biden faced off October 22 in their final televised debate. Under tight control by moderator Kristen Welker of NBC, Trump interrupted Biden much

less frequently than in the first debate and, for the most part, stylistically comported himself much better than on September 29. That doesn’t mean he didn’t lie and mislead as he’s done throughout his term. Fact checkers still had a busy night.

In post-debate ads and appearances, Trump tried capitalizing on Biden’s statements about transitioning from the oil industry in fighting climate change, especially in petroleum-rich states like Texas and Pennsylvania. The right- wing media claimed that would change the race.  Most mainstream pundits, however, lauded Biden’s performance. Biden won CNN’s instant poll, 53-39, with women rating him higher by 60-35. Trump didn’t close his gender gap.

       

CNN Instant Poll conducted by SSI's

Perhaps not unexpectedly for three lawyers,   

Left to Right: Rob Wiley, Henry Jones, Woodson Walker

among us concurring and dissenting opinions emerged. Woodson, though agreeing Biden did himself little harm, contended he missed opportunities for a clearer, more forceful statement on racial justice and a more cogent, better organized explanation of his coronavirus plan. Rob disagreed and thought the former vice president performed admirably in nearly all respects. Henry noted the inherent difficulty in standing on a stage alone before millions of people while facing a hostile, mendacious, adversary and a media-savvy moderator.

Henry’s observation suggests we ought not forget the notion MSNBC host and former senate staffer Lawrence O’Donnell reminds viewers of every chance he gets. The think-on-your-feet skills

needed for presidential debating bear little relationship to the capacity for deliberation and reasoned, data-driven decision making required of a president. On this score, the three of us agree. Biden wins hands down.

After the debate, the candidates, their running mates, and surrogates (like former President Barack Obama) hit the road, barnstorming the battle ground states and blitzing the airwaves with ads wherever they had money to buy time. Biden has

more money, so more people will see his ads in more places. Trump kept holding his signature rallies, virus or no virus. Vice President Mike Pence continued holding rallies though five members of his staff tested positive for the virus. Biden and running mate Kamala Harris continued their restrained approach to campaigning in the pandemic.

The Stakes

The horse race is what it is, and we’ll know the

outcome soon enough. What this election means transcends the contest. We accept the conclusions of those like the bipartisan group of over 500 national security experts, including 22 four-star military officers, who back Biden, the Republican-inspired Lincoln Project, and the

plethora of publications like USA TODAY and the New England Journal of Medicine that don’t usually endorse candidates but have done so this time. They’ve recommended that their diverse audiences support Biden because they see another four years of Trump as an existential threat to American Democracy.

      

We need not again list the current president’s sins. We’ve cataloged them and commented on them time after time in the nearly four years he has been in office. We have pointed out the ways in which his behavior disrespects the rule of law, denigrates our most significant

and important institutions, and undermines our standing in the world. Indeed, if Biden wins, coronavirus notwithstanding, he may face his biggest challenge in restoring America’s standing among nations, particularly our traditional allies in Europe and Asia.

Should Biden capture the presidency, we will have plenty to say about what tasks he should prioritize and about how he should navigate the difficult job of

putting the country back together again. For now, it’s enough to say we think it imperative the American people give him the job.

This is crunch time. Millions have already

voted,  navigating around the voter suppression efforts of Trump and his Republican cronies. The signs have been positive and turnout may break all kinds of records. But this isn’t done yet. As we write and post this, another week of voting remains. That time is too valuable for anyone not to make use of it.

Vote! We believe our democracy hangs in

the balance.

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE I: A CLEAR CONSENSUS

It’s been a week and a half since the first Democratic debate in

Miami. We’ve had gobs of punditry, our own time for contemplation, and the first polls reflecting that debate’s impact. Surprisingly, little space separates our individual and collective views and those of the pundits. With some minor differences, we agree on three points: (1) California Senator Kamala Harris and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren emerged as winners in the two-night format; (2) former Vice President Joe Biden performed poorly and must improve in the July 30-31 debate in Detroit; and (3) a small group of candidates positioned themselves for future moves, though differences exist about who’s on that list.

The second night attracted a record audience for a Democratic primary debate as 18.1 million people watched on television and another nine million followed on streaming services. The large audience indicates the depth of Democratic desire for a candidate who can defeat President Donald Trump and that Democratic voters continue shopping for that candidate since many in the field of over 20 remain relatively unknown.
 

Harris and Warren

Hardly anyone disputes that Harris offered the most dynamic performance. She clearly planned on attacking Biden for his

Biden/Harris Faceoff

remarks about working with segregationist U.S. Senators years ago and the fact he opposed some forms of busing for school integration. By injecting her own story of being bussed as a student, Harris personalized the issue and further introduced herself to a public still relatively unfamiliar with her. Every poll taken after the debate showed her moving up and one had her grabbing second place behind Biden. 

Harris’s performance also suggested she can stand toe-to-toe with Trump on a debate stage. Her prosecutorial experience, which she flashed in questioning Judge Brett Kavanaugh and U.S. Attorney General William Barr during congressional hearings, should serve her well in a debate-stage fight with the bare-knuckled Trump. 

Warren shone for a different reason. She dominated the early parts of the first night and cruised home, untouched by any other

candidate. Voter interviews confirmed that she impressed with her command of policy and the specificity of her proposals. Warren still must get out her personal story of Oklahoma roots and a hard scrabble existence as a young mother, but she possesses the knowledge and communication skills needed for pushing her progressive message. Trump’s people reportedly fear her discipline and doggedness.

Warren’s rise contrasts with the accelerating fall of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. He dropped in most of the post-debate polls. Warren has found more attractive ways of presenting many of his ideas. There is not room for both of them in that lane.       

Biden

We’re not sure whether the former Vice President performed poorly because of inadequate preparation or age and time have dissipated his skills. Given his pre-debate dust up with Harris and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker over the segregationists, Biden should have anticipated Harris would pounce about that. That he didn’t suggests an apparent lack of foresight. Even so, as Woodson observes, his responses on stage lacked “mental and verbal dexterity.” Maybe, at 76, he’s just lost a step.

Biden, Harris, Booker

Photo Courtesy of CNN

Whatever the reasons for his performance, Biden dropped in every post-debate poll we’ve seen. He lost some of the African-American support that fueled his rise after entering the race. Biden, like all other Democratic candidates, can’t win without black voters. In the next debate, he must show he’s on his game or it’s likely he’ll end up as another early front-runner who couldn’t go the distance.

The Others

Three candidates – former San Antonio Mayor and Housing Secretary Julian Castro, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Colorado Senator Michael Bennett – led the list of those who may have positioned themselves for a future move. Castro might have single handedly ended the hopes of former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke with his grasp of immigration policy. Buttigieg performed well with an honest admission he hasn’t solved racial problems in his city and a heartfelt condemnation of Republican invocations of religion while supporting inhumane immigration policies. Bennett took on Biden for some of his senatorial budget policy actions.

Each, however, has a major flaw. Castro, as a Latino, could suffer an anti-immigrant backlash. Buttigieg raised 24 million dollars in

the last quarter but has little black support and hasn’t yet shown he can get any. Bennett remains mostly unknown outside his home state and must fundraise quickly so he can get on television in the key, early states. He doesn’t have much time.

Some people thought a few others -- New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Booker -- belong in the potential breakout category. Others suggest candidates like Marianne Williamson, Erick Swalwell, John Hickenlooper, and John Delaney should save themselves the agony of a drawn out defeat and go home now. Fair enough, but many, including Henry, thought every candidate had at least one good moment. 
  

The first debate served its purposes of better introducing candidates

and initially separating the field, even though somecomplained the participants didn’t put enough emphasis on attacking Trump. Most decided they’d use their time introducing themselves to an America still mostly lacking information about them. As Rob points out, Trump has committed so many sins, plenty of material and time remain for ripping into him.