THE LATEST DEMOCRATIC DEBATE: STABILITY AND SELF-REVELATION

Democratic Debate III went into the books September 12 in Houston. We saw nothing that fundamentally changed the race. Indeed, stability rates as a major take-a-way for the evening. As we’ll get to, stability doesn’t mean set in concrete. As we’ll also get to, the debate moderators from ABC gave us one thing we hadn’t seen in these events before --- a chance at understanding the candidates as people. The voters should be grateful.

Not Much Changed

The debate began with three clear leaders in the race – former Vice President Joe Biden as the front runner, pursued by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. California Senator Kamala Harris was in striking distance of the top three in most polls. All the others, to some degree, were hanging on, just happy they made the stage under the more stringent Democratic Party criteria for qualifying for this debate.

              

Polls taken over the coming days shouldn’t change much from that lineup. That said, nearly every candidate had moments they could brag about. Only former Housing Secretary Julian Castro apparently hurt himself with his too-strident attack on Biden, suggesting the 76-year old candidate couldn’t remember what he had said just moments earlier (the pundits agreed Biden didn’t say what Castro claimed he did).

No candidate landed a knockout punch and nobody (other than perhaps Castro) suffered a debilitating gaffe. The race should remain about the same, at least until Debate IV on October 15.

A Short History Lesson

As we suggested, stable doesn’t mean permanent. In 2004, before the voters started going to the polls and caucus rooms, John Kerry languished in third place in the polls. Kerry won Iowa, however, and front runner Howard Dean crashed after his infamous post-caucus scream. Kerry captured the nomination and narrowly lost the general election to George W. Bush.

In 2008, Hillary Clinton held a significant lead before Iowa, but Barack Obama won there. The Illinois senator rocketed up the polls, grabbed the lead after the early primaries, and rolled on to the nomination and the White House. 

We note this history because the current leaders could slip. With three debates done (and 10 or 11 candidates who didn’t qualify for Debate III), we can’t really say it’s still “early.”  We can say the race remains far from decided and it is too early for declaring this a two-person or three-person contest. 

Some Welcome Self-revelation

The moderators of the Miami debate on NBC deservedly got panned for asking hold-up-your-hand questions and other silly inquiries. The CNN inquisitors in Detroit weren’t a lot better in the second debate. If those moderators  deserved the  roasting they  got,

fairness demands giving the ABC moderators  credit  for their enlightened performance, especially the last question. Instead of asking for plain vanilla closing statements, George Stephanopoulous asked that each candidate describe how   

he or she had overcome a professional obstacle. The question produced refreshing self-disclosure that showed more than competing health care plans and immigration positions.

·      Biden – the former Vice President turned his answer personal, relating the impact of the deaths of his wife and daughter in an auto accident right after his election to the Senate in 1972 and the loss to cancer of his son, Beau, in 2015. By doing so, Biden widened the scope of the question and invited personal responses from the others.

·      Warren – she became emotional in talking about dropping out of college after an early marriage and children, then navigating single motherhood, a waitressing job, law school, and turning to teaching law.

·      Harris – she revealed many people thought she couldn’t, as a black woman, win her races for San Francisco district attorney and California Attorney General, but her mother taught her she, not others, should define what she could and couldn’t do.

·      Pete Buttigieg – he talked frankly about being gay, knowing it, and deciding he should come out while involved in politics in Mike Pence’s Indiana.

·      Castro – he told the story of giving up his lucrative law firm job so he could cast a principled vote on a land deal as a city council member in San Antonio.

·      Sanders – he described losing political race after political race, often getting a minuscule vote, but sticking with his principles until the public caught up with him, so he could win house and senate races.

·      Cory Booker – his story involved overcoming opposition to his plans early in his tenure as mayor of Newark, New Jersey and living in a tough, inner city neighborhood.

·      Amy Klobuchar -- she vividly described how having an insurance company kick her out of the hospital right after her sick daughter’s birth inspired her to petition Minnesota legislators for a law giving mothers more hospital time with their newborns.

·      Beto O’Rourke – he detailed his anguish over the mass shooting in August in his hometown of El Paso, Texas and the inspiration the victims of that shooting have given him through their courage.

·      Andrew Yang – he related the history of his entrepreneurial efforts in light of how he and his parents grew up.

The debates had revealed a deeper Democratic bench than initially thought.  While the odds are the nominee will emerge from those at the top of the current polls, the compelling stories the candidates revealed indicate the quality of the field and suggest someone might catch fire and turn the race on its head.  It has happened before.  Let the debates continue, making the voters the ultimate winners.

A LITTLE HELP FROM YOUR FRIENDS (PART I)

OUR ADVICE FOR ELIZABETH WARREN, JULIAN CASTRO, AND KAMALA HARRIS

Recently we offered the field of 2020 Democratic candidates some general advice. We first urged that they stop attacking President Obama. Given his 95% approval rating among democrats, little good can come from assailing his time in office.  We urged that the candidates simplify their healthcare plans and fire at  Donald Trump,  while avoiding personal attacks on each other. We promised advice for individual candidates “later.” That time has arrived.

The debate in Houston September 12-13 will feature a smaller field because of tougher democratic party donor and polling criteria. How many candidates make the stage remains uncertain, but expect something like 13, not 20 as in Miami and Detroit, meaning the debate might require one day, not two.

We don’t know who’ll remain viable when voting starts next February, so we won’t try advising everybody. We've taken a  "top

four plus two” approach. Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris lead in almost every poll we’ve seen. We’re still in the campaign’s early stage, we projected two other candidates we think could have a shot. Somebody we didn’t pick (Cory Booker? Amy

Klobuchar?) still might catch fire. For reasons we’ll discuss, our might-get-it-going candidates are the two Texans, Julian Castro and Beto O’Rourke. We start with Warren, Castro, and Harris and will follow up with Biden, O’Rourke, and Sanders.

 

Elizabeth Warren

Frankly, we don’t see much we can tell you. Since getting past that DNA test mistake at the beginning, you’ve run a nearly flawless campaign. You’ve become legendary for detailed policy proposals (“I’ve got a plan for that!”) and turned in two excellent debate performances. You’ve eschewed big donors yet raised plenty of money. One CNN commentator called you “the best athlete on the field.” Still, we have a few suggestions.

First, you must work harder at combatting the notion you’re a pointy-headed elitist Harvard professor who isn’t a regular person. You can accomplish that by talking more about your personal narrative in addition to those policy

proposals. You’re from Oklahoma, for crying out loud! You grew up with the everyday problems real people, especially women, face – paying for an education, taking care of children while pursuing a career, making ends meet on a limited salary. We suspect many people don’t know any of that. 

Second, we suggest you show some flexibility in your plans, especially health care.  If you get nominated all your proposals will face intense examination.  Make clear your broad health care goals, but spend less time on mechanics.  We hope you can indicate a willingess to adjust your plans if someone else has a better idea. 

Third, you must disabuse the nation of the idea you're a socialist.  Polls show many of your policy proposals, like the wealth tax, enjoy broad public support.  The media, in its perpetual horserace focus, lumps you with self-described Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders. Senator, as we've written, you have some very capitalist ideas.  Socialism means governmental control of the means of production. You haven't advocated that, and you should take every opportunity you can for reminding people of that. 

Julian Castro
We identifiedy you as a possible party crasher because you performed well in both debates and your records suggests you have the right stuff for being President.  Unlike many of your

rivals, who've only been legislators, you have administrative experienc as housing secretary and as Mayor of San Antonio. So, what advice do we have for you? 

First, you must show you're more than a one-trick pony.  Immigration has been your debate

calling card, but you talk more about other things.  Your website offers interesting proposals on education, the economy, and policing.  Since you made the Houste debate state, talk more about those.

Second, when discusssing immigration, you can't come across as attacking President

Obama.  You sounded like that in Detroit when you went after Biden on deportations.  There's plenty you can challenge about Trump's immigration policies without an apparent assault on Barack Obama.  Though we understand your qualms about his deportation policies, you can't become President without the Obama coalition.

 

Kamala Harris

We find you the most frustrating candidate in the race. We’re attracted by the idea of a progressive woman of color as the

Democratic nominee. We have little difficulty with your  policy positions though, even more than Senator Warren, you should simplify your health care approach because it’s too complex. Our biggest concern with you lies in your communication style. That could have more to do with you not getting nominated than any issue.

Despite being in the U.S. Senate only three years, you’ve forged a reputation as a tough inquisitor of Trump nominees. You effectively

utilized your prosecutorial experience in making both Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh and Attorney General designee Bill Barr squirm. In the Miami debate, you

employed those skills in a well-timed attack on Biden over school integration, an attack he flubbed. This gave you a boost in the polls and had pundits talking about how you’d proved you can stand on the debate stage against Trump.

All well and good, but you should stop being a prosecutor 24/7. We’ve seen that style in interviews and other appearances and it doesn’t work. You come off at times as “snarky” and unpleasant. That style may work in California, but it will fail in the heartland. As trial lawyers, we learned there comes a time

for leaving the cross-examination persona in the courtroom. Your poll numbers dropped after both debates as the glow of your performances faded. You must understand interaction with voters and media in a presidential campaign occurs outside a court or congressional committee hearing room.

NEXT: Biden, O’Rourke, Sanders