THE LATEST DEMOCRATIC DEBATE: STABILITY AND SELF-REVELATION

Democratic Debate III went into the books September 12 in Houston. We saw nothing that fundamentally changed the race. Indeed, stability rates as a major take-a-way for the evening. As we’ll get to, stability doesn’t mean set in concrete. As we’ll also get to, the debate moderators from ABC gave us one thing we hadn’t seen in these events before --- a chance at understanding the candidates as people. The voters should be grateful.

Not Much Changed

The debate began with three clear leaders in the race – former Vice President Joe Biden as the front runner, pursued by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. California Senator Kamala Harris was in striking distance of the top three in most polls. All the others, to some degree, were hanging on, just happy they made the stage under the more stringent Democratic Party criteria for qualifying for this debate.

              

Polls taken over the coming days shouldn’t change much from that lineup. That said, nearly every candidate had moments they could brag about. Only former Housing Secretary Julian Castro apparently hurt himself with his too-strident attack on Biden, suggesting the 76-year old candidate couldn’t remember what he had said just moments earlier (the pundits agreed Biden didn’t say what Castro claimed he did).

No candidate landed a knockout punch and nobody (other than perhaps Castro) suffered a debilitating gaffe. The race should remain about the same, at least until Debate IV on October 15.

A Short History Lesson

As we suggested, stable doesn’t mean permanent. In 2004, before the voters started going to the polls and caucus rooms, John Kerry languished in third place in the polls. Kerry won Iowa, however, and front runner Howard Dean crashed after his infamous post-caucus scream. Kerry captured the nomination and narrowly lost the general election to George W. Bush.

In 2008, Hillary Clinton held a significant lead before Iowa, but Barack Obama won there. The Illinois senator rocketed up the polls, grabbed the lead after the early primaries, and rolled on to the nomination and the White House. 

We note this history because the current leaders could slip. With three debates done (and 10 or 11 candidates who didn’t qualify for Debate III), we can’t really say it’s still “early.”  We can say the race remains far from decided and it is too early for declaring this a two-person or three-person contest. 

Some Welcome Self-revelation

The moderators of the Miami debate on NBC deservedly got panned for asking hold-up-your-hand questions and other silly inquiries. The CNN inquisitors in Detroit weren’t a lot better in the second debate. If those moderators  deserved the  roasting they  got,

fairness demands giving the ABC moderators  credit  for their enlightened performance, especially the last question. Instead of asking for plain vanilla closing statements, George Stephanopoulous asked that each candidate describe how   

he or she had overcome a professional obstacle. The question produced refreshing self-disclosure that showed more than competing health care plans and immigration positions.

·      Biden – the former Vice President turned his answer personal, relating the impact of the deaths of his wife and daughter in an auto accident right after his election to the Senate in 1972 and the loss to cancer of his son, Beau, in 2015. By doing so, Biden widened the scope of the question and invited personal responses from the others.

·      Warren – she became emotional in talking about dropping out of college after an early marriage and children, then navigating single motherhood, a waitressing job, law school, and turning to teaching law.

·      Harris – she revealed many people thought she couldn’t, as a black woman, win her races for San Francisco district attorney and California Attorney General, but her mother taught her she, not others, should define what she could and couldn’t do.

·      Pete Buttigieg – he talked frankly about being gay, knowing it, and deciding he should come out while involved in politics in Mike Pence’s Indiana.

·      Castro – he told the story of giving up his lucrative law firm job so he could cast a principled vote on a land deal as a city council member in San Antonio.

·      Sanders – he described losing political race after political race, often getting a minuscule vote, but sticking with his principles until the public caught up with him, so he could win house and senate races.

·      Cory Booker – his story involved overcoming opposition to his plans early in his tenure as mayor of Newark, New Jersey and living in a tough, inner city neighborhood.

·      Amy Klobuchar -- she vividly described how having an insurance company kick her out of the hospital right after her sick daughter’s birth inspired her to petition Minnesota legislators for a law giving mothers more hospital time with their newborns.

·      Beto O’Rourke – he detailed his anguish over the mass shooting in August in his hometown of El Paso, Texas and the inspiration the victims of that shooting have given him through their courage.

·      Andrew Yang – he related the history of his entrepreneurial efforts in light of how he and his parents grew up.

The debates had revealed a deeper Democratic bench than initially thought.  While the odds are the nominee will emerge from those at the top of the current polls, the compelling stories the candidates revealed indicate the quality of the field and suggest someone might catch fire and turn the race on its head.  It has happened before.  Let the debates continue, making the voters the ultimate winners.