THE LATEST DEMOCRATIC DEBATE: STABILITY AND SELF-REVELATION

Democratic Debate III went into the books September 12 in Houston. We saw nothing that fundamentally changed the race. Indeed, stability rates as a major take-a-way for the evening. As we’ll get to, stability doesn’t mean set in concrete. As we’ll also get to, the debate moderators from ABC gave us one thing we hadn’t seen in these events before --- a chance at understanding the candidates as people. The voters should be grateful.

Not Much Changed

The debate began with three clear leaders in the race – former Vice President Joe Biden as the front runner, pursued by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. California Senator Kamala Harris was in striking distance of the top three in most polls. All the others, to some degree, were hanging on, just happy they made the stage under the more stringent Democratic Party criteria for qualifying for this debate.

              

Polls taken over the coming days shouldn’t change much from that lineup. That said, nearly every candidate had moments they could brag about. Only former Housing Secretary Julian Castro apparently hurt himself with his too-strident attack on Biden, suggesting the 76-year old candidate couldn’t remember what he had said just moments earlier (the pundits agreed Biden didn’t say what Castro claimed he did).

No candidate landed a knockout punch and nobody (other than perhaps Castro) suffered a debilitating gaffe. The race should remain about the same, at least until Debate IV on October 15.

A Short History Lesson

As we suggested, stable doesn’t mean permanent. In 2004, before the voters started going to the polls and caucus rooms, John Kerry languished in third place in the polls. Kerry won Iowa, however, and front runner Howard Dean crashed after his infamous post-caucus scream. Kerry captured the nomination and narrowly lost the general election to George W. Bush.

In 2008, Hillary Clinton held a significant lead before Iowa, but Barack Obama won there. The Illinois senator rocketed up the polls, grabbed the lead after the early primaries, and rolled on to the nomination and the White House. 

We note this history because the current leaders could slip. With three debates done (and 10 or 11 candidates who didn’t qualify for Debate III), we can’t really say it’s still “early.”  We can say the race remains far from decided and it is too early for declaring this a two-person or three-person contest. 

Some Welcome Self-revelation

The moderators of the Miami debate on NBC deservedly got panned for asking hold-up-your-hand questions and other silly inquiries. The CNN inquisitors in Detroit weren’t a lot better in the second debate. If those moderators  deserved the  roasting they  got,

fairness demands giving the ABC moderators  credit  for their enlightened performance, especially the last question. Instead of asking for plain vanilla closing statements, George Stephanopoulous asked that each candidate describe how   

he or she had overcome a professional obstacle. The question produced refreshing self-disclosure that showed more than competing health care plans and immigration positions.

·      Biden – the former Vice President turned his answer personal, relating the impact of the deaths of his wife and daughter in an auto accident right after his election to the Senate in 1972 and the loss to cancer of his son, Beau, in 2015. By doing so, Biden widened the scope of the question and invited personal responses from the others.

·      Warren – she became emotional in talking about dropping out of college after an early marriage and children, then navigating single motherhood, a waitressing job, law school, and turning to teaching law.

·      Harris – she revealed many people thought she couldn’t, as a black woman, win her races for San Francisco district attorney and California Attorney General, but her mother taught her she, not others, should define what she could and couldn’t do.

·      Pete Buttigieg – he talked frankly about being gay, knowing it, and deciding he should come out while involved in politics in Mike Pence’s Indiana.

·      Castro – he told the story of giving up his lucrative law firm job so he could cast a principled vote on a land deal as a city council member in San Antonio.

·      Sanders – he described losing political race after political race, often getting a minuscule vote, but sticking with his principles until the public caught up with him, so he could win house and senate races.

·      Cory Booker – his story involved overcoming opposition to his plans early in his tenure as mayor of Newark, New Jersey and living in a tough, inner city neighborhood.

·      Amy Klobuchar -- she vividly described how having an insurance company kick her out of the hospital right after her sick daughter’s birth inspired her to petition Minnesota legislators for a law giving mothers more hospital time with their newborns.

·      Beto O’Rourke – he detailed his anguish over the mass shooting in August in his hometown of El Paso, Texas and the inspiration the victims of that shooting have given him through their courage.

·      Andrew Yang – he related the history of his entrepreneurial efforts in light of how he and his parents grew up.

The debates had revealed a deeper Democratic bench than initially thought.  While the odds are the nominee will emerge from those at the top of the current polls, the compelling stories the candidates revealed indicate the quality of the field and suggest someone might catch fire and turn the race on its head.  It has happened before.  Let the debates continue, making the voters the ultimate winners.

TREES, TRUMP, AND CLIMATE CHANGE

We told ourselves as we planned this blog post we should write about something other than President Trump. We kicked around several ideas, eventually settling on climate change, a pressing issue to which we haven’t paid enough attention. This piece concerns climate change but, even writing about that, we still find ourselves writing about Trump.  In

discussing climate change, we can't ignore his short-sighted policies, including pulling the United States out of the Paris climate accords. Because of the climate-related disasters that have unfolded in recent days, the urgency of electing a president who will attack the problem, not ignore or make it worse, just increased.

First, there’s the incredible destruction wrought by Hurricane Dorian, which dealt the Bahamas a devastating blow and struck some

Devastation of Hurricane Dorian August 2019

coastal areas in the United States. The Bahamas will recover only after years and massive aid from the world community. We know the American people will help,    through generous private contributions and individual actions. What the U.S. government will do under Trump remains uncertain. He balked at doing more than the minimum for Puerto Rico after two hurricanes slammed that island back-to-back, and the people most affected there are U.S. citizens. Scientists say the damage from ever-more-powerful hurricanes like Dorian will only get worse in years to come.

Second, fires continue raging in the Amazon jungle in Brazil. That country’s new Trumpian - president, Jair Bolsonaro,  emphasizes    de-

velopment and seems indifferent about the fires. World leaders chastised Brazil about the destruction, but Bolsonaro rejected aid    from

the G-7 nations for helping fight the fires unless French President Emmanuel Macron apologized for what Bolsonaro considered as

insults to Brazil. Bolsonaro objected to Macron’s insistence the fires are all the world’s concern, not just Brazil’s and suggested Macron infringed Brazil’s sovereignty. Some scientists say losing the trees in the Amazon rain forest, and the underbrush that goes along with them, could have catastrophic consequences for large parts of the planet.

              

The Tree Solution

Among all this bad environmental news comes a potentially hopeful idea. If you want to do  something about climate change, plant

a tree! A study conducted by a group of scientists based in Switzerland and released in July suggested planting one trillion trees could cut atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by 25%. Release of the study unleashed optimism the world might have found a climate change solution almost everyone can get behind, reducing the conflict between supporters of fossil fuels and those who want wider use of clean energy like wind and solar.

Critics of the Swiss study dashed that hope quickly, saying (1) reforestation alone won’t solve the climate crisis and (2) since adult, full grown trees diminish carbon emissions the most, such a planting program wouldn’t have the desired effect soon enough. These critics reminded us we’re running out of time. They added that private property rights and other land use issues could reduce the effectiveness of reforestation programs.

How Trees Help

Even those who recognized the one trillion tree solution isn’t a magic bullet for the climate change problem acknowledge trees make a difference:

          

*Trees absorb large amounts of carbon, about 48 pounds a year for mature trees. Such trees release enough oxygen for four people.

*Trees protect coastal areas from flooding and storms by slowing storm surge and absorbing excess water.

*Trees anchor other plants and provide wildlife habitat.

*Trees – surprise, surprise – provide shade, keeping the earth cooler.

Some countries have moved forward with anti-climate change programs based on tree planting. Ireland, for example, recently announced it will plant 440 million trees

between now and 2040, about 22 million a year. That nation will also impose a carbon tax, increase its investment in renewable energy, and enact land use and agriculture rules that should reduce carbon emissions. Elsewhere, Ethiopia planted 350 million trees in one day as part of a reforestation program and India planted 50 million trees in one day in 2016.

Ethiopia Tree Count Map

                                                                                             Photo courtesy of Mother Nature Network

Needed: Comprehensive Approaches

Planting massive numbers of trees apparently won’t, by itself, solve the climate crisis.  That’s

probably a good thing, since knowing that discourages the idea a simple solution exists for this complex problem. Indeed, some Republicans who once denied we have a man-made climate change problem, now grudgingly acknowledge the situation, but assert a technological solution will appear in time. That, if true, would avoid hard choices   about

energy and spare the fossil fuel industry and its GOP-friendly executives (and donors) the reckoning that may come if climate change weans the United States off oil, gas, and coal. The fact no magic bullet solution apparently exists just means we should attack the problem comprehensively with a combination of government regulation and incentives, along with market-based solutions that reflect consumer demand and entrepreneurial innovation.

We don’t view low-tech solutions like tree planting campaigns as mutually exclusive with the development of solar energy, wind power, and electric cars that reduce carbon emissions. A lot of things - reliance on internal combustion engines for transportation, coal-fired electric generation, and deforestation driven by overbuilding and urban sprawl - created this problem. Fixing it will require more than one solution.

Individuals, acting alone, can’t solve this crisis. Every American over 18 can, however, do two things. First, plant a tree. Second, vote in 2020 for a president who will get the United States moving on climate change. 

         

 

        

A LITTLE HELP FROM YOUR FRIENDS (PART II)

OUR ADVICE FOR JOE BIDEN, BETO O'ROURKE, AND BERNIE SANDERS

Recently we advised three 2020 Democratic presidential candidates - Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, and Kamala Harris – on improving their campaigns. We focused on Warren and Harris because of their top four poll standings and Castro because we recognize the potential someone with his combination of managerial experience and educational credentials has for effectively serving as President.

Now, we advise Biden and Sanders because of their poll standings and Beto O'Rourke because of the extraordinary opportunity we see in his candidacy.

The upcoming September 12-13 Houston debate presents significant opportunities and obstacles for all candidates. The field is narrowing. Even the front runners don't have forever for making adjustments before the voting starts.

Joe Biden

Both pieces of advice we offer you find their roots in popular culture. In The Lion King, the treacherous Scar, plotting a coup and takeover of the kingdom, sings a song written by Whoopi Goldberg and Jeremy Irons titled Be Prepared. He admonishes his co-conspirators of the folly of being caught "unawares" when facing "the chance of a lifetime."

               

We can't give you, Mr. Vice President, better counsel. Being long in the tooth ourselves, we understand the burden learning every nuance of your opponents and their possible lines of attack imposes. It's harder than at 35, 40, even 50 years old. But if you're serious about this running for President business, you must do it.

You were woefully unprepared for the first debate (yes, you did better in the second, but "better" isn’t saying much after that first egg you laid) and it cost you, bigtime. We understand you will make gaffes. That's who you are. You must, however, put in the work, commit fewer errors, and make sure they hurt less. Let your sins be ones of commission, not omission.

Second, you should listen to a country song by Toby Keith (co-written with Scotty Emerick) called As Good as I Once Was. It contains the line, “Im as good once as I ever was: and is about an aging bar room brawler and womanizer who laments the fact he's lost a step (maybe several steps) in his favorite pastimes of fighting and sex. He realizes, however, he still can  rise to the occasion when he must. We get it that you' re 76 years old and not the tornado you once were. But, we think you can get it done at crunch time.

The polls, at least now, say there's a good chance you'll win the nomination. If you do and come face to face with Trump next fall as this nation's only hope for ridding it of that cancer, you must bring your "A" game, like you did in 2012 against Paul Ryan.

Beto O'Rourke

As everyone knows, you aren’t in the top echelon in the polls. Many of Rob's fellow Texans think you should go home and run for the U.S. Senate. You say you won't do that. Fair enough, but what do you do in the presidential race?

In getting back on the trail after the mass shooting in your hometown of El Paso, you said you now plan a moral campaign against gun violence, Trump, and the division he's sown in the country. You said you'll skip much of the coffee and corn dog circuit in

Iowa and New Hampshire and go places where Trump has caused real pain. We see benefit to the country and the Demcratic Party if you effectively carry out that plan. You should keep the nation's attention focused on the need for common sense gun safety measures. In the process, your message can emphasize the healing we need.

Perhaps you can make enough of an impression that someone picks you as the vice presidential nominee. Let's cross the ethnic and gender hurdles later.  Yes, in the current climate, you might work better with one of the female candidates at the top of the ticket, but let's not let pursuit of the perfect become the enemy of the good.

You could help put Texas in play in next year's electoral college calculations. Your 2018 near-miss senate race helped a number of Democrats win state legislative seats and other local races. Given your relationship with the Latino community in Texas and your passion for unifying America, on the ticket or off, you could make a real difference in 2020.

Bernie Sanders

Giving you advice probably represents a supreme exercise in futility. You are who you are and we doubt you'll listen to us or anyone else. The dispiriting thing about your 2020 campaign rests in its similarity to your 2016 campaign.

Your talking points and tag lines are so familiar we can repeat them almost as well as you can. You know, "millionaires and billionaires...", "health care is a right...,"  "the top one percent has..."  Nearly everythingyou say is true, but it needs jazzing up, repackaging and supplementing with other things, like outreach to minority communities where your support remains woefully weak, especially for so progressive a candidate. 

A few of our friends told us recently about interviews you did in which you loosened up and revealed more than ever before of your personality and motivations. Quite frankly, we think you should do more such interviews. Perhaps then, if you get the nomination, many who basically agree with you, but really don't like you, might decide they should do more than vote for you.

And that's it, our advice for the candidates now in the best position for getting nominated. Anybody got anything they 'd add?