While the U.S. House of Representatives races, and the Democratic
attempt at flipping the necessary 23 seats for a majority may determine the
nation’s immediate political future, the race for Governor of Georgia might say
much more about the long-term state of our politics than any other contest this
fall.
The importance of the race lies not just in the possibility former Georgia
House Minority Leader Stacey
Yvonne Abrams could become the nation’s first black woman governor. That’s significant, no doubt, but if she
defeats her Republican opponent, Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the way she
wins could mean a lot more than a race and gender breakthrough.
A Different Southern
Democrat
Abrams, who’s on the August 6/August 13 , 2018 cover of Time, won Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial
nomination with a decidedly different approach from Democrats in the South
since the GOP’s dominance of the region took hold in the 80s and 90s. Abrams defeated
another former Georgia state representative, Stacey Evans, 3-to-1, with a
decidedly progressive message and campaign strategy. Rather than running to the center, Abrams aimed
both her message (public education, prison reform, gun safety, health care,
liberal positions on abortion and gay rights, expanded public transportation)
and her campaign resources at blacks, Georgia’s growing Hispanic population,
and young, progressive white voters.
Abrams and her team think they can win the general election with
a finely tuned organization that turns out that coalition.
Abrams’s approach depends heavily on an expensive, well-run
ground game. Even political novices know
much of the electorate Abrams needs often skips mid-term elections. Democrats
got creamed in 2010 and 2014 during the Obama era because the young,
progressive, and minority group voters who propelled the election and
re-election of the nation’s first black president stayed home in those mid-term
years. Abrams thinks she can turn out
those voters and make up the 200,000 votes by which centrist Democratic
candidates like Michelle
Nunn, the daughter of former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, and Jason Carter,
the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, lost in statewide races in
recent years.
The last two presidential results, and the state’s changing
demographics, give Abrams hope. Trump beat
Hillary Clinton in Georgia by only five points and Barak Obama lost to Romney
by seven and a half. The Atlanta
suburbs, teeming with increasing numbers of voters of color and liberal whites
who’ve moved in from other states, give Abrams a solid base. To win, many analysts think, in addition to
getting 90 % or more of the black vote, she must execute her get-out-the-vote plan
well enough to make 40% of the total vote non-white, roughly the percentage of
Georgia’s non-white voting age population.
She also must get about 25% of the white vote, considered doable if she
can turn out those liberals in the Atlanta suburbs.
Baggage
Abrams presents as something of a Renaissance woman. In addition to her political career, she’s worked as a tax lawyer, run several businesses, and written novels under the pen name Selena Montgomery. She hails from a two parent home in which her mother, father, and two siblings earned college degrees, though one brother served prison time. Some contend this family background gives her credibility with middle class and under class voters. Her time in the Georgia legislature suggests a capacity to work both sides of the aisle.
Abrams presents as something of a Renaissance woman. In addition to her political career, she’s worked as a tax lawyer, run several businesses, and written novels under the pen name Selena Montgomery. She hails from a two parent home in which her mother, father, and two siblings earned college degrees, though one brother served prison time. Some contend this family background gives her credibility with middle class and under class voters. Her time in the Georgia legislature suggests a capacity to work both sides of the aisle.
Abrams isn’t perfect though, and Republicans are already
going after her flaws. Aside from the “D”
behind her name in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in two
decades, vulnerabilities in her personal story provide fertile ground for
attack ads. She’s admitted
owing the IRS $50,000 in back taxes and having $170,000 in credit card and
student loan debt (Abrams holds degrees from historically black Spelman College,
the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, and
Yale Law School). She says much of the
debt accumulated because of help she gave her parents after college, but critics
still think they can exploit her personal financial situation.
The Election
Some early polls show Abrams even or ahead in her race with
Kemp, a Trump-endorsed right winger who, in his runoff contest with Lt.
Governor Casey Cagle,
talked more about standing for the national anthem, guns, and immigration, than
about Georgia policy issues. All
indications point to a close race, though Kemp stands as the favorite in most
quarters. Abrams
will have a well-funded campaign, thanks both to her network of small donors
and contributions from progressives across the country. Abrams knows grassroots organizing and her
opponents will not outwork her. The race, shaping up as one of this year’s most
expensive political contests, might tell us more about the nation than any
other campaign this cycle.
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| Source: realclearpolitics.com |
We’re keeping a close eye on this race, not just because of
the historic possibility of seeing an African-American woman ascend to the
governorship of a southern state. The
Abrams strategy holds enormous potential for progressive electoral causes in
the United States. Abrams thinks she can
win with a coalition of progressive whites and people of color. As with Doug Jones in last year’s Alabama Senate
race, she hopes for a big turnout of black women. If Stacey Abrams pulls this off, she will
have written the playbook for putting Democrats in power at the Presidential,
Congressional, and statehouse levels.
