STACEY ABRAMS AND THE GEORGIA GOVERNOR’S RACE: A Black Woman Takes Aim at the Peach State’s Top Prize

While the U.S. House of Representatives races, and the Democratic attempt at flipping the necessary 23 seats for a majority may determine the nation’s immediate political future, the race for Governor of Georgia might say much more about the long-term state of our politics than any other contest this fall. 

The importance of the race lies not just in the possibility former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Yvonne Abrams could become the nation’s first black woman governor.  That’s significant, no doubt, but if she defeats her Republican opponent, Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the way she wins could mean a lot more than a race and gender breakthrough.  

A Different Southern Democrat 

Abrams, who’s on the August 6/August 13 , 2018 cover of Time, won Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial nomination with a decidedly different approach from Democrats in the South since the GOP’s dominance of the region took hold in the 80s and 90s.  Abrams defeated another former Georgia state representative, Stacey Evans, 3-to-1, with a decidedly progressive message and campaign strategy.  Rather than running to the center, Abrams aimed both her message (public education, prison reform, gun safety, health care, liberal positions on abortion and gay rights, expanded public transportation) and her campaign resources at blacks, Georgia’s growing Hispanic population, and young, progressive white voters.  Abrams and her team think they can win the general election with a finely tuned organization that turns out that coalition.

Abrams’s approach depends heavily on an expensive, well-run ground game. Even political novices know much of the electorate Abrams needs often skips mid-term elections.  Democrats got creamed in 2010 and 2014 during the Obama era because the young, progressive, and minority group voters who propelled the election and re-election of the nation’s first black president stayed home in those mid-term years. Abrams thinks she can turn out those voters and make up the 200,000 votes by which centrist Democratic candidates like Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, and Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, lost in statewide races in recent years. 

The last two presidential results, and the state’s changing demographics, give Abrams hope.  Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Georgia by only five points and Barak Obama lost to Romney by seven and a half.  The Atlanta suburbs, teeming with increasing numbers of voters of color and liberal whites who’ve moved in from other states, give Abrams a solid base.  To win, many analysts think, in addition to getting 90 % or more of the black vote, she must execute her get-out-the-vote plan well enough to make 40% of the total vote non-white, roughly the percentage of Georgia’s non-white voting age population.  She also must get about 25% of the white vote, considered doable if she can turn out those liberals in the Atlanta suburbs.

Baggage 
Abrams presents as something of a Renaissance woman.  In addition to her political career, she’s worked as a tax lawyer, run several businesses, and written novels under the pen name Selena Montgomery.  She hails from a two parent home in which her mother, father, and two siblings earned college degrees, though one brother served prison time.  Some contend this family background gives her credibility with middle class and under class voters.  Her time in the Georgia legislature suggests a capacity to work both sides of the aisle.

Abrams isn’t perfect though, and Republicans are already going after her flaws.  Aside from the “D” behind her name in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in two decades, vulnerabilities in her personal story provide fertile ground for attack ads.  She’s admitted owing the IRS $50,000 in back taxes and having $170,000 in credit card and student loan debt (Abrams holds degrees from historically black Spelman College, the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, and Yale Law School).  She says much of the debt accumulated because of help she gave her parents after college, but critics still think they can exploit her personal financial situation.

The Election   

Some early polls show Abrams even or ahead in her race with Kemp, a Trump-endorsed right winger who, in his runoff contest with Lt. Governor Casey Cagle, talked more about standing for the national anthem, guns, and immigration, than about Georgia policy issues.  All indications point to a close race, though Kemp stands as the favorite in most quarters.  Abrams will have a well-funded campaign, thanks both to her network of small donors and contributions from progressives across the country. Abrams knows grassroots organizing and her opponents will not outwork her. The race, shaping up as one of this year’s most expensive political contests, might tell us more about the nation than any other campaign this cycle.

Source:  realclearpolitics.com 

We’re keeping a close eye on this race, not just because of the historic possibility of seeing an African-American woman ascend to the governorship of a southern state.  The Abrams strategy holds enormous potential for progressive electoral causes in the United States.  Abrams thinks she can win with a coalition of progressive whites and people of color.  As with Doug Jones in last year’s Alabama Senate race, she hopes for a big turnout of black women.  If Stacey Abrams pulls this off, she will have written the playbook for putting Democrats in power at the Presidential, Congressional, and statehouse levels.