THE STATE OF THE UNION SPEECH AS ROADMAP

TRUMP PREVIEWS HIS 2020 CAMPAIGN  

    

President Trump’s recent State of the Union speech won’t go down in history as an oratorical masterpiece dripping in eloquence or as a marker of a great change in his style of governance. Trump’s feeble attempt at soaring rhetoric that would unify the country fell flat. His speechwriters gave him, especially at the end, the right words. The way Presidential speeches go over, however, depends on the

President’s credibility in delivering the message the writers put on the page. Trump lacks credibility for giving a unifying speech because he’s been so devoted to division. Still, his speech was significant. It laid out his 2020 campaign strategy and showed the nation his view of his path to reelection.

Trump presented three themes his campaign will feature: an attack on Democrats as “socialists,” an unending focus on illegal immigration, and painting himself as the victim of partisan witch hunts disguised as oversight investigations. The House chamber wasn’t Trump’s typical campaign rally venue, but the speech told us what we’ll see at his rallies in 2019 and 2020. 

The Socialism Boogeyman

Trump claimed, “America was founded on liberty and independence, not government coercion, domination, and control,” then said “we renew our resolve  that America

Sanders at Trump speech Jan2019

will never be a socialist country.” As the President spoke those words, the television cameras showed Vermont’s Bernie Sanders, a self-described “Independent Socialist” who caucuses with Democrats in the Senate and who took Hillary Clinton to the wire for the Democratic nomination in 2016. Everyone assumes Sanders will run again in 2020.

It wasn’t just Sanders Trump had in mind with his attack on “socialism.”  Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, California Senator Kamala Harris, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, all announced Democratic candidates, have, to varying degrees, endorsed at least some of Sanders’s agenda – a single payer health care system, free college, a much higher minimum wage, and increased taxes on the wealthy. Aside from specific programmatic positions, nearly all Democratic hopefuls have signaled they will make income inequality a theme of their 2020 campaigns. 

Trump’s attack, now, on “socialism” likely means one of two things (or both). He believes impulses in the electorate will make even voters who don’t like him hold their noses and vote for him out of fear of something that naturally repulses most Americans. Alternatively, Trump understands the appeal of some of the “socialist” ideas Sanders and other Democrats support and he knows he must drive down public support for those ideas. Polls show, at least in the abstract, considerable public acceptance of a Medicare-for-all health care system, a higher minimum wage, increased taxes on the rich, and other left- of – center policy proposals. Whichever Trump believes – and the concerns are not mutually exclusive – he saw the need for starting that campaign theme now.

           

        

Hordes at the Border

Trump tried in the 2016 midterms claiming massive caravans of Central American immigrants threatened a stampede at

the southern border. The threat never materialized and Republicans lost the House, though they slightly expanded their Senate majority. Despite evidence to the contrary, in the State of the Union speech, Trump again raised the specter of massive assaults on a vulnerable U.S.-Mexico border. “As we speak,” he said, “large organized caravans are on the march to the United States.” Fear of those hordes makes, in Trump’s view, building a wall necessary. He shut down the government for a record 34 days (and might do it again) over wall funding.

The State of the Union speech made clear how much Trump will focus on fear of border intrusion during his reelection campaign. Trump said, “The lawless state of our Southern Border is a threat to the safety, security, and financial well-being of all Americans.”

Even if some of the country has grown tired of Trump’s

obsession with a wall and illegal immigration, no one should under estimate how much the issue means for his hardcore supporters. He hasn’t delivered on his signature campaign promise of a wall and his policy of dividing asylum-seeking parents and their children at the border appalled even some Trump backers. He must keep talking about immigration and keep suggesting the only way his base can realize its investment in him is reelecting him for a second term.

                

Poor Pitiful Me

In the immediate aftermath of the State of the Union speech, many commentators emphasized Trump’s not-so-veiled threat that he won’t work with Congress – especially

the Democratic House – on legislation if Congress investigates him. “If there is going to be peace and legislation, there cannot be war and investigation,” he said. “It just doesn’t work that way.” Leaving aside the utter untruth of that assertion, the fact he made this so prominent a part of the speech suggests Trump plans on attacking Congress about expected probes into his hotel ventures, his Russia connections, his inaugural committee, and other aspects of his scandal-plagued political and business life. Trump, it seems, intends on casting himself as a victim.

Running against Congress has been tried by American presidents, but it has seldom worked. Aside from Harry Truman’s reelection campaign in 1948 against a “Do Nothing” Republican Congress, the tactic has usually fizzled.  Never the less, Trump trotted it out this year. Given his usual practice of making everything about himself, there’s little reason for surprise that Trump’s trying this.

This State of the Union speech may well have served Trump’s purpose in pacifying his base. For the rest of us, it served as a preview and a guide for what’s coming in America’s political future.           

WHAT DO DEMOCRATS DO NOW?

DRAIN THE SWAMP, INSTALL SAFEGUARDS, AND PASS PROGRESSIVE LEGISLATION

Democrats took control of the House of Representatives on January 3. They immediately challenged President Trump on his government shutdown by passing bills the Republican controlled Senate approved last year. Following loud protests by the right wing media, Trump reneged on a pledge he’d sign the legislation that would fund the government while Congress debates his border wall request.

Speaker Pelosi knows her majority must do much more than try getting the government open. We agree. House Democrats should act boldly on oversight and policy change, demonstrating they can “walk and chew gum at the same time.”

Oversight

Limits exist on what the House can do,  given a Republican Senate apparently  more concerned about loyalty to Trump  than the country’s wellbeing. Still, after two years of government by scandal and  Tweet, Americans want oversight of the  Trump administration. For some, that means an  impeachment inquiry. While House Democrats  acknowledge that possibility, especially after Special Counsel

Robert Mueller completes his work, they don’t see  impeachment as inevitable. They recognize the danger in  impeachment that appears purely motivated by politics. 

We believe, however, the House shouldn’t wait on Mueller before beginning the oversight process, a responsibility of Congress, not Mueller. Congress must not only address the potentially impeachable offenses Muller might find, but also the other harms Trump has done to our democratic institutions. These include his irresponsible criticisms of the judiciary, the intelligence community, and the military. In exercising oversight, we hope Congress calls expert witnesses like former State Secretary Madeleine Albright,

intelligence officials Malcolm Nance and James Clapper, and historians Doris Kearns Goodwin and Jon Meacham who can detail the consequences of Trump’s actions. To anyone who sees this expansive focus as unprecedented and unwarranted, we can only say how unprecedented and unwarranted Trump’s behavior has been and offer a reminder that democracy hangs in the balance. 

If the Democratic House majority fulfills its oversight responsibilities, it will have plenty on its plate, including:

·Investigating Trump’s potential violations of the

emoluments clause of the constitution through his 

business enterprises.

·Securing and reviewing Trump’s tax returns.

·Examining the ethical breaches of Trump’s current and 

former agency heads.

·Conducting a fair, thorough, and impartial investigation 

into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. The House 

Intelligence Committee probe was a sham because the 

Republican majority on that committee protected Trump. 

Under Democrats, Congress must reassert itself as a co-

equal branch of government.  

·Holding hearings on voter suppression in places like 

Florida, Georgia, North Dakota, and North Carolina as a 

predicate for passing voter protection legislation.

This list will keep members of Congress busy during the  coming year and beyond. While the House doesn’t confirm  

appointments as the Senate does, the House can and should play a critical role in overseeing executive departments. It has subpoena power and the power of the purse. Republicans wouldn’t use their oversight powers because they feared angering or endangering Trump. Now, Democrats must use those powers and assure Americans their government operates fairly, ethically, and efficiently. 

Policy

The House members who rode last November’s blue wave 

to Democratic control ran on substantive policy issues that  

appealed to the young, voters of color, and suburban women. Now this coalition that “looks like America” must deliver.  We suggest they focus on:

·Health Care – The 2018 midterm elections were, in 

general, about health care and, in particular, about 

preserving coverage for pre-existing conditions. The 

new  House majority must keep the pressure on the 

Senate and Trump on health care.  After all, Republican 

senators may find it unpleasant facing the electorate in  

2020 after a vote that imperils the Affordable Care Act 

or  endangers pre-existing conditions coverage.

·Infrastructure – That the nation must do something

about its crumbling roads and bridges isn't in doubt. 

Trump claimed in 2016 he'd offer an infrastructure 

program. He hasn't. The Democratic House should 

pass a big infrastructure program that includes a fair, 

meaningful funding mechanism, forcing the hands of the

GOP-led Senate and Trump.

·Tax Fairness --- The House should repeal the 2017 tax 

cuts, thereby promoting fairness for middle and working 

class taxpayers, deficit reduction, and protecting Social 

Security and Medicare.

·Immigration Reform –  Yes, we must secure our 

borders (with something that works, not a wall).  Then 

we need a path to citizenship for the millions already 

here who live in the shadows. Experience, research, 

and common sense say doing this will befit the 

economy. Any immigration reform measure should 

address the plight of the Dreamers – the approximately 

800,000 people brought to the United States as 

youngsters who’ve grown up here, often serving the 

country in various ways including in the military, but who 

Trump and some of his nativist supporters suggest 

deporting even though those individuals have known no 

other home. 

The Start

The new House majority has already offered a major reform package aimed at making government more transparent, fairer, and more responsive to public will. HR 1 concerns voting rights, ethics, campaign finance, and other areas Congress should address in cleaning up the disgusting mess Trump and his cronies have made in the last two years. The measures are a good start and suggest Pelosi and her team are serious about change.

The GOP Senate and Trump will balk at many of these ideas, as they will balk at much on our list.  Let them balk. There’s another election in 2020 and the eight-point Democratic victory in 2018 indicates where the wind is blowing and what’s blowing in it. Balk too much and they might find themselves on the street two years from now.