The American people need an infrastructure
program because the roads and bridges they use every day are crumbling around
them and
because the country needs it to remain competitive with the world’s
other industrialized nations. President
Biden needs an infrastructure bill that keeps his administration’s positive
momentum and shows ordinary citizens government can work for them.
Congressional Democrats need infrastructure
legislation as a signature accomplishment
they can run on in
2022.
Moderate Republicans need infrastructure legislation so they can show their
voters the virtue of being something other than the party of “no.”
So, with so many divergent
groups needing something done on infrastructure, why has it become one of the
heaviest legislative lifts in recent times? The answer lies in the complex web
of political alliances that have put the president in a precarious position.
The dilemma illustrates the difficulty America faces in getting things done in
an era of extreme partisanship.
A
Deal – Maybe
After
weeks of talking, the president and a group of senators from both parties
announced agreement on a $1 trillion infrastructure package that supposedly has
the backing of 11 Republican senators (Burr, Cassidy, Collins,
Murkowski, Portman, Romney, Rounds, Graham, Young, Tillis, and Moran) and two key
Democratic moderates, Joe
Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of
Arizona. The unspoken reality was that Democrats would still try to pass the
rest of Biden’s original $2.3 trillion package through budget reconciliation,
meaning no need for Republican votes in the Senate. Biden first said he would
veto the smaller bill if he
didn’t get both. The 11 Republicans who
were on record as supporting the bill balked and the president walked back
that statement. The dust up showed the political peril that infests the whole
infrastructure issue.
With
Manchin and Sinema (and maybe some other Democratic senators) apparently caring
more about the appearance of bipartisanship
than the
substance of an infrastructure package, Biden
now finds himself trying to thread a needle that can sew together waring
elements in his own party with Republicans who might agree to pass something.
Progressive
Democrats, particularly in the House, have begun expressing exasperation
with
the whole idea of a bipartisan deal. A few, like Pramila Jayapal of
Washington, chair of the Congressional
Progressive Caucus, think the whole bipartisan
effort
has been “wasted.” A few in the group have hinted they won’t vote for the kind
of narrow bill worked out with Senate Republicans. Given the slim Democratic
majority in the House, Biden can’t lose many Democratic votes in the lower
chamber, since it’s not clear any Republicans will vote “yes.”
Shortcomings
Make
no mistake, the deal with Republicans
has major weaknesses. First, it’s paid for with gimmicks – smoke and
mirrors ideas that placate Republican refusal to raise taxes on the wealthy. Second, it doesn’t address a
number of real needs Biden’s original big bill took head on.
Paying
for the smaller bill will come from a combination of things like unused
unemployment benefits money and increased
tax collections generated by a bigger IRS
budget. We’re not keen on that idea
in particular. Experience suggests the yield from such an effort often comes up
short. Beyond that, the country must address income inequality
and the fact the wealthy currently don’t pay their fair share in taxes. Even without the country’s massive
infrastructure need, those earning over $400,000 a year should pay more.
Most experts who’ve analyzed
the infrastructure proposals think the bill Biden and the bipartisan group
agreed on doesn’t really
tackle climate change.
With the recent heat
catastrophe in the Pacific Northwest and an already raging
Atlantic hurricane season (more named storms earlier than ever), we can’t
imagine anyone thinking we don’t face a real climate crisis. Other shortcomings
in the bill agreed on concern not enough emphasis on high speed rail and not
enough money for improving the nation’s electric grid. That’s especially needed
if more electric vehicles and devices come online in transportation and other
industries.
Who
Do You Trust?
Part
of the dilemma Biden now faces rests in the fact he must deal with both
outright enemies in the other party and skeptics in his own. Most Republicans
in both houses of Congress don’t
want to do anything except
obstruct him. Some House Democrats now don’t trust him
to follow through and fight for a bill based on reconciliation, so some now
appear reluctant to give him the smaller bill as a start.
Biden may have to wait until
after the 2022
mid-terms before he can complete this process. Democratic prospects don’t
look bad now for picking up a seat or two in the Senate. For one thing Republicans must defend 20
seats, Democrats only 14. For another, Republican incumbents in swing states
like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina aren’t seeking re-election,
potentially giving Democrats opportunities. That might diminish
the importance of problem Democrats like Manchin and Sinema and pave the way
for a doable reconciliation bill with tax increases and meaningful spending on pressing
needs like climate change and electric grid development. But, Democrats are in
real danger of losing the House in 2022 because of redistricting, Republican voter suppression,
and the historical fact a president’s party usually loses seats in the mid-term
elections right after that president takes office.
One irony in all this resides in the fact Biden’s original proposal enjoys 68%
support among the people. Republicans in Congress apparently listen only to the
29% opposed.
Infrastructure
provides Biden with a major test and a real opportunity. If he gets his two
bills, he will have done his own party and the country a major service. Maybe
he simply lives to fight another day with a new Congress. In today’s political
circumstances, that can rank as a major accomplishment.