SHATTERING THE GLASS CEILING

WILL AMERICA FINALLY PUT A WOMAN IN THE WHITE HOUSE?

The United States has never elected a woman president or

vice president.That fact stands out as the 2020 campaign gets going. If a “Madam President,” or even a “Madam Vice President,” raises her right hand on the U.S. Capitol steps on January 20, 2021, the country will have made significant history. Whether the nation elects a female president or vice president represents a major part of the 2020 campaign story, especially since so many women are running for president this time.

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The two major American political parties have nominated three women for the nation’s two top political jobs. All three lost. But, there is a story with each one that makes saying the country won’t elect a woman unfair and probably not accurate. Each lost for a variety of reasons, some having to do with sex and some having to do with other things.

New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro became the

first woman on a major party ticket in 1984 when Walter Mondale picked her as his running mate. Some thought Mondale, trailing badly in the polls, needed a jumpstart for his campaign against Ronald Reagan and picking a woman vice presidential candidate might give him that. It didn’t. Mondale and Ferraro lost in a 49 state landslide, meaning Mondale probably was doomed in the first place and no running mate would have made a difference.

John McCain selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for his 2008 race against Barack Obama. Palin gave McCain a brief boost in the polls, but that faded fast as Palin’s woeful lack of preparation for national office became painfully clear. McCain and his close aides later confessed they regretted the choice.

Palin/Mcain

Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton for president in 2016 and polls suggested she’d win, shattering the glass ceiling.

Speculating about why she lost has become  a cottage industry. She, and others, have blamed her loss, at least in part, on sexism. No one should deny sexism played a role in Clinton’s defeat, but blaming it all on sexism isn’t accurate or fair. Too many other things, including FBI Director Jim Comey, the Russians, Clinton’s own baggage, and the strange nature of Donald Trump’s appeal, figured into the 2016 outcome to say Clinton lost because of her gender.

Sex and the 2020 Campaign

As of this writing, six women have announced their candidacies for the 2020 Democratic nomination. One of them, spiritualist author Marianne Williamson, who’s never held public office and lost a congressional race as an independent in 2014, seems the longest of long shots. Another, Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, starts out in the bottom tier of a very crowded field and would become a factor only with a huge upset in an early caucus or primary. But four others, all U.S. Senators, can make a credible case for becoming the Democratic nominee:

• Kirstin Gillibrand of Ne w York 
• Kamala Harris of California
• Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
• Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts   

All have strengths and weaknesses the 2020 campaign will expose and exacerbate, leaving sex aside. But will the sheer fact of gender derail an otherwise winning campaign?

The available evidence doesn’t answer the question. Polls

taken between 2012 and  last year show about five per cent of voters, on average, say they absolutely won’t vote for a woman for president. Slightly fewer said they wouldn’t vote for a black person (atheism remains the biggest taboo in American politics, with 43% saying in 2012 they wouldn’t vote for an atheist, though that dropped to 40% by 2015). The meaning of such polls remains unclear since pollsters ask the questions in the abstract. The right person and an appealing set of issue positions might overcome gender, racial, or religious bias.

The history doesn’t answer the question either because of the unique circumstances under which each female vice

presidential or presidential nominee ran. Democrats have proven they will nominate a woman for president; that glass ceiling has been shattered. This time, if a woman gets the presidential nomination or accepts the vice presidency, unlike Ferraro, they won’t face a candidate on the other side anywhere near as popular as Reagan. All the women now holding office, meaning Gabbard, Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, and Warren, seem infinitely better prepared than Palin. At least at the moment, none are as disliked as Clinton. In short, all seemingly have better prospects than their predecessors on this journey.

The Rest of the World 

Many nations to which we compare ourselves have long

since crossed the threshold of selecting a female leader. Angela Merkel, maybe the real leader of the Free World, has been German Chancellor since 2005. Theresa May serves as the United Kingdom’s second woman Prime Minister. Women have led India (Indira Gandhi) and Israel (Golda Meir). 

Only the 2020 primary and general election campaigns will determine whether the United States joins its world counterparts and finally elects a woman to one of its two highest offices. In the post-World War II era, becoming vice president has often been the ticket to the oval office (see, e.g., Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, George H.W. Bush), so even the election of a woman as vice president would represent a major milestone. In 2020, America can catch up with much of the rest of the western world. It’s about time.