POLITICS 2020: An Early Look at the Candidates

Anyone following this blog should know we covet the 2020 presidential election as  an opportunity for ridding the country of Donald Trump and all his administration symbolizes – capitulating to Putin and Russia, racism at home, xenophobia about people of color in other countries, economic insensitivity, and many other transgressions. We doubt Trump faces a serious Republican primary challenge, so we’re closely watching the Democratic field for his opponent.

We began discussing the 2020 race in late 2017 and early 2018 when we offered a six-part American Political Agenda. In posts on October 7, October 20, November 4, November 22, December 11, and January 10 we presented issues we hoped 2020 presidential candidates would address, a code of conduct they should follow, how they can revive our atrophied government, and ways of repairing America’s alliances and standing in the world. We presented these ideas at a high level of abstraction, taking care we not promote any individual’s prospective candidacy.

We continued that trend after the 2018 mid-terms. On November 30, we described our ideal candidate, again not naming names. We emphasized electability, especially in the Midwest where Hillary Clinton failed in 2016, issue discipline, preserving the coalition that won those mid-terms, women’s rights, and the need for personal traits like charisma and a sense of history.

With the turn of the calendar to 2019, the time for abstraction has passed. Like everyone wanting a change at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, we must now evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of real people.  So, we note who’s in and offer a sense of their early prospects.

The Top Tier

*Elizabeth Warren (second term senator, Massachusetts, 69) – the first “name” candidate in the race with her January 2 announcement, she made waves with big crowds on her first Iowa trip. A ferocious advocate for consumers and economic fairness, she’s grabbed early attention with a proposal for taxing the wealth – though not the incomes – of the rich.

*Kamala Harris (freshman senator, California, 54) – a January 21 entrant, even before she reached the Senate was viewed as a potential first tier candidate with a chance at being nominated. Her January 27 kick off rally in her hometown of Oakland drew an estimated 20,000 people. She favors Medicare for all, an assault weapons ban, and a $15 minimum wage. With California moving its primary from June to March, she could benefit from next year’s electoral calendar.

*Kirsten Gillibrand (third term senator, New York, 52) – long rumored as a candidate, she jumped in January 15 and also got a positive reception on her first Iowa trip. Gillibrand has $10 million in the bank from her New York campaigns, giving her staying power. She’s been known mostly for crusading against sexual harassment in the military. Though now positioned as a liberal, she might have trouble with progressive Democrats who remember her conservative record as an upstate New York congresswoman.

Left to Right: Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gilibrand

The Middle

*Julian Castro (former housing secretary and former San Antonio mayor, 44) — Castro, who announced January 12, has an uphill climb because he lacks name recognition.  He could work his way into the top tier with a strong

showing in an early primary or caucus.  With Democrats anixious for a big Latino general election turnout, Castro may have a better shot at the vice presidency. 

*Cory Booker (second term senator, New Jersey, 49) - having gotten in on February 1, he already must do some catching up.  Though he supports Medicare for all and teh $15 minimum wage, some liberals remain skeptical of him, partly because of friendly past comments about Wall Street. 

Long Shots

*Peter Buttigieg (seven-year mayor of South Bend, Indiana, 37) – a Navy veteran who announced January 23, Buttigieg promotes his executive experience, military background, and says he symbolizes generational change. He is the first openly gay Democratic presidential candidate.

*Tulsi Gabbard (four term congresswoman, Hawaii, 37) – the first Hindu member of Congress and an Army veteran, she’s seen now as a progressive because she supported Bernie Sanders in 2016. Upon announcing on January 11, her record on LBGTQ issues came under fire. She once supported conversion therapy and opposed same-sex marriage. She says her time in the military changed her mind. 

*Andrew Yang (New York entrepreneur, 44) – without a record in public office, he’s staked his campaign on a universal basic income proposal.

*John Delaney (former Maryland congressman, 55) – after three terms in the House, he left Congress for a presidential bid focusing on education, improved treatment for veterans, and infrastructure.         

Others

This list will soon get longer. Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, billionaire and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke, a rock star because of the astounding amount of money he raised on-line in his close 2018 senate race against Ted Cruz, have all hinted they’ll run. The closest thing in the party to real heavyweights, former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, can’t put off announcing much longer. The train might leave the station without them.

So, the wild ride has begun.  We hope Democrats won’t try tilting the race toward any candidate, but will let the voters decide policy prescriptions and candidate virtues and drawbacks on the merits. That’s the best way for finding a winner.