PLAYOFF TIME IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WHO’S IN AND WHO SHOULD BE

College football’s playoff (the CFBP), beginning Saturday, December 29, presents two compelling semi-final games and bruised feelings among supporters of teams left out. Fans and pundits disagree about who’s playing as opposed to who should be. At least college football, with this format, has moved closer to what every other sport does – determining its champion on the field, not by a voting process. Acknowledging imperfections in the system shouldn’t detract from the scheduled games and the possibility of riveting contests between the best in the sport.

For those who haven’t been paying attention, on the 29th, Clemson plays Notre Dame in 

Dallas (ostensibly in the Cotton Bowl) and Alabama meets Oklahoma and Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray in Miami technically the Orange Bowl).

The winners play the title game January 7 in Santa Clara, California. These three contests will settle who wears the national championship crown for the 2018 season.

Some history

For years college football fans lamented the  

way the sport determined its national champion. Generally, it was the team that finished number one in the polls, as voted by media or coaches. Sometimes polls agreed and sometimes they didn’t. That meant competing championship claims, shared titles, and outrage. Clamoring for a playoff increased annually. College presidents, however, claimed a playoff would unnecessarily lengthen the season and interfere with the academic calendar, among other excuses. Finally, the pressure grew unbearable and the television networks threw money at the problem, so the system changed.

The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) institutionalized pairing the number one and number two teams in a “plus one” game at the end of the season. The BCS lasted 1998 - 2013, satisfying few. The separation between the top two and the next two didn’t justify leaving out three and four. In 2014 the CFPB started.  Supposedly, this system stays in place until 2025 when the television contract expires.

Unlike the BCS, the CFBP doesn’t just match  the top ranked teams from the polls. A committee comprised of athletic directors, former coaches, ex-players, and other “experts” ranks the teams, pairing one against four and two against three in national semi-final games on New Year’s weekend. The winners meet a week or so later at a neutral site. Ohio State won the first crown after the 2014 season, Alabama captured championships for 2015 and 2017, and Clemson took its title after the 2016 season. 

This year’s games

The odds favor another Clemson – Alabama showdown. The Tigers and the Tide have met three times in the four-year history of the CFBP, with Alabama winning twice, including in last year’s semi-finals. Nick Saban’s team doesn’t look invincible, but most credible, experienced observers expect an Alabama win over Oklahoma. The Sooners own a dynamic offense averaging an insane 49.5 points per game.

Murray, who’s reportedly debating whether he’ll stick with his plans for giving up football in favor of a baseball career, will drive the Alabama defense nuts with his electric feet and accurate arm. Oklahoma boasts an experienced, accomplished offensive line, explosive receivers (just ask the Texas secondary), and very capable running backs. Unfortunately for coach Lincoln Riley and the Sooner faithful, Murray doesn’t play defense. For most of the year, the Oklahoma defense has been, putting it politely, just plain awful. Alabama turnovers probably represent Oklahoma’s best chance.

The Clemson-Notre Dame game presents a bit more intrigue.  Clemson, at times this year, has been off-the-charts dominant.  The Tigers sliced through the middle of their schedule, beating Wake Forest, 63-3, Florida State 59-10, Louisville, 77-16, and North Carolina State, 41-7.  A defensive line with three (or four) first round NFL draft choices will keep the Tigers in any game they play. Clemson, however, starts a freshman quarterback who, though incredibly talented, remains a freshman. Occasionally, the Tiger offense stagnates. Additionally, arch rival South Carolina torched the Clemson pass defense. Notre Dame, though unbeaten and solid, hasn’t been spectacular. Many are skeptical about the overall talent on this Irish squad. Can Notre Dame compete with the stud linemen, receivers, and defenders Clemson has? Look for a close game Clemson wins, setting up the next Clemson-Alabama bloodletting.

The left outs

When the CFBP began, everyone knew the format would leave out worthy teams (i.e. those ranked five, six, seven, etc.). The anger this year centered on  Big Ten champion

Ohio State, Southeastern Conference runner-up Georgia, and undefeated  Group of Five power Central Florida. A very good case exists for each, but each fell short in some way.

This is as good a place as any for advocating

an eight-team playoff – the Power Five conference champions and three at-large teams, with one spot tentatively reserved for a Group of Five member (this would operate as a presumption, not a hard and fast rule and some years no Group of Five team would get in).  This year, 1 seed Alabama (SEC) would play 8 seed Washington (Pac 12), 2 seed Clemson (ACC) would play 7 seed UCF (at large), 3 seed Notre Dame (at large) would meet six seed Ohio State (Big 10), and 4 seed Oklahoma (Big 12) would play 5 seed Georgia (at large). This wouldn’t stop all the complaining, but it would mean one thing: if you want in, win your conference championship or settle for what the committee give you.

Now, we’re headed for the television set. Who’s joining us?