Monday, October 14, 2019

THE PUBLIC AND HARD CHOICES: TWO VIEWS


This post concerns process as much as any substantive topic. Hopefully, it provides insight into how the three of us think, evaluate, and conceptualize issues. It originated in thoughts
Henry expressed about the capacity of voters and the public for sorting out complex issues and making nuanced judgments. Today’s politics, about which we so often write, forces difficult choices. Many issues are far from simple and may implicate moral and ethical dilemmas juxtaposed against deeply held social and ideological positions. Operating in the public sphere today offers few easy moments. Often no good choices exist.



Henry’s Optimism

We live in different cities, so we frequently communicate by text, though we also confer regularly by telephone about the substance of our

writing. One of us sees an idea in the day’s news or runs across an intriguing thought in an article or book. We ask for each other’s reaction to this or that development in the impeachment saga, foreign affairs, sports, or an aspect of interpersonal or family relations.


One day recently, in a series of text messages, we considered the capacity of Americans for making fine distinctions between pieces of evidence in the impeachment inquiry. Henry expressed confidence a large part of the public can sort and sift through the evidence, making intelligent decisions about such things as which acts of President Trump constitute impeachable offenses and which don’t. We recognized the impeachment enterprise could require understanding the difference, for example, between criminal acts and those which, though technically not a crime, still might constitute an impeachable abuse of power.



The Dissenters Respond

Woodson and Rob disagreed. Their text messages asserted that many members of the American
electorate can’t regularly make those distinctions. Such individuals rely on and adopt slogans and spin generated by political leaders with an agenda. Woodson and Rob pointed out, for example, our recent experience with the Mueller Report


One reason the early spinning by Attorney General Bill Barr derailed the potential impact of Mueller’s Report was Barr’s focus on a narrow point he claimed the report determined – “no collusion,” a term that doesn’t exist in federal criminal law. Trump and his allies took Barr’s misleading claim that Mueller found “no collusion” and ran with it, creating a false narrative the report itself never overcame.


Relatively few Americans read the dense, technically worded 400 plus page report and only
a few more closely followed the reporting concerning Mueller’s work. Those who did one or the other realized summarizing Mueller’s conclusions about Trump’s 2016 election involvement with the Russians in one or two words wasn’t possible. 


Rob and Woodson argued the Mueller Report reaction and the response to other still-emerging details of Trump’s illegal or unconstitutional behavior demonstrated the limits of popular ability for sorting out difficult public policy issues. Indeed, one reason Trump’s phone call to Ukraine’s president tying U.S. military aid to a “favor” for him in digging up dirt on former Vice President Joe Biden may have broken through with the public lies in its simplicity. Understanding a shakedown requires much less capacity for nuance than sifting through Mueller’s machinations about collusion and obstruction of justice.



Elitist?
Some may suggest the view Rob and Woodson
take smacks of elitism. You don’t trust THE PEOPLE, such observers might say. Mistrust of the general population goes back centuries in American public life. The reason for the electoral college? The framers weren’t sure voters could make informed decisions on who should occupy the White House. Instead of leaving the matter to popular will, as President Hillary Clinton discovered in 2016, they established a system they thought diminished the chance an ill-informed public could make an irrational presidential choice.  Oh, and don’t forget that until ratification in 1913 of the Seventeenth Amendment, state legislatures, not voters, elected members of the United States Senate. In short, mistrust of the public enjoys a glorious history in America and misgivings about the capacity ordinary citizens possess for sorting through complicated public policy issues doesn’t necessarily prove elitism.  


Saving Grace

Despite our disagreement about how much nuance Americans exhibit in the public policy sphere, we concurred on one thing: a thoughtful person can make a difference in public policy debate. American history is replete with examples of single individuals making distinctions about divisive issues that end up having a major impact on the body politic.


Take the example of Edmund G. Ross, an obscure Senator from Kansas, who cast the deciding vote preventing conviction and removal from office of President Andrew Johnson in 1868. Johnson was a bad president, a racist who stopped much of
Abraham Lincoln’s bold plan for healing the nation after the Civil War. The charges against Johnson, for which the House of Representatives impeached him, stemmed from a petty fight over something called the Tenure of Office Act, aimed at keeping
Secretary of War Edwin Stanton in office. The underlying issue had no real importance in American governance. Senator Ross’s vote, as chronicled in John F. Kennedy’s Profiles in Courage, prevented an injustice.



Senator Ross’s vote represents but a single instance in which one person made a difference and changed history. Americans may not always recognize the fine distinctions thoughtful public policy consideration and development require, but in the republic’s 243 years, we’ve gotten some things right.                     

Monday, October 7, 2019

TRUMP’S TRUE BELIEVERS: WHAT THEY THINK AND WHY THEY WON’T CHANGE


As the impeachment story moves forward, evolving by the hour, we find the arguments offered by President Trump’s defenders increasingly outlandish, less and less effective but incredibly interesting. Polls show support for impeachment and conviction
growing in the wake of Trump's phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a whistleblower complaint that produced Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement that the House of Representatives had, in fact, begun an
impeachment inquiry. As the calendar turned to October, half the respondents in some polls favored Trump’s impeachment and removal from office. With the pressure ramping up, the number of Americans favoring impeachment and conviction will likely increase, not diminish.

Trump’s defenders kept spinning, despite being confronted by reporters, talk show hosts, and others who demonstrated their infidelity to the facts and the illogic of their conclusions. With the narrative about Trump’s actual conduct seemingly so clear, the interesting part of the story for us became how Trump and his people approached defending the indefensible.     

Three Lines of Attack
Though Trump’s backers offered a range of reasons why Congress shouldn’t impeach him, their main arguments fell into three broad categories: (1) Joe Biden did it too; (2) what Trump did was okay; and (3) attacks on the whistleblower who started all this with a complaint under established whistleblower procedures. The facts support none of these approaches to Trump's defense.

Several media organizations looked into the Biden-did-it-too claim and all turned up nothing. No evidence exists the former vice president improperly
used his office while promoting Obama administration policy. Along with European leaders, Biden advocated the ouster of a prosecutor because of his failures in investigating corruption in that former Soviet  republic. Additionally, no evidence surfaced that Biden exerted inappropriate influence related to the board position his son held with a Ukrainian company.

No basis exists for declaring the substance of Trump’s call to his Ukrainian counterpart
Phone transcript of Trump/Ukrainian call 
acceptable. Having already frozen U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, Trump asked for two “favors”:  (1) help with a probe into the origins of the Mueller
 investigation and (2) finding dirt on Biden, the obvious conclusion being the
release of funds dependent on performing the favors. Anybody reading the White House-released notes of Trump’s call who won’t acknowledge those facts illustrates the old adage about no one being blinder than one who will not see.

Trump and his allies have railed against the whistle-blower, demanding the person’s identity, clearly a violation of U.S. law. This nation has had – for obvious reasons – laws protecting whistle-blowers since the 1700s. Now is not the time for abrogating those laws.

Why They Persist
We get Trump’s self-preservation instinct, hence his own defense of his actions and his personal strikes at Biden and the whistle-blower. That’s what we’d expect. Understanding why Republican members of Congress stay with Trump will become increasingly difficult as more information comes out and as public support for impeachment grows. Richard Nixon didn’t resign until his approval rating fell to about 25 per cent, putting Republican members of Congress in the position of choosing between Nixon and their own political survival. They chose at least trying to save their own necks, though the massive GOP losses in the 1974 mid-terms suggest only modest success in that endeavor.

What we find really intriguing is trying to figure out why ordinary Americans buy into
arguing on Trump’s behalf. In our discussions, we’ve suggested a number of reasons, most of them unflattering and we realize that’s not always fair and perhaps not enlightening either. Trump has found something in a swath of the American nation that allows him unwavering support from a significant part of the voting public.

One can debate the size of that swath, while recognizing its importance. Woodson, for
example, thinks its 40-45 per cent.  Rob thinks the rabid Trump base lies somewhere in the low 30s, with the rest of his approval rating coming from committed, baseline
Republicans and people who support some of his policies but won’t man the barricades for him. Henry thinks it falls somewhere in between. Since we usually
occupy space on the other side of the political divide, we need to understand the why of this.

Some of this, in all likelihood, resides in devotion to Trump’s positions on social issues 
like abortion and gay rights. We know Trump supporters so invested in assuring Trump’s pursuit of an anti-abortion, anti-gay judiciary, they cannot break with him for any reason.

For others, we think immigration produces the same dedication. Trump’s determination
to build a wall (or his latest scheme, construction of a moat with snakes and alligators) on the south-
ern border and his detention policies regarding immigrants generate so much popularity among some voters, they stick with him despite whatever bad act he’s committed.

Such explanations probably account for the attitudes of many Trump defenders and they aren’t changing. We think there are other  reasons we have not, and perhaps cannot, tease out, given our commitment to rules of reason and fact-based analysis. We can’t read documents like the notes of Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and reach conclusions the facts laid out in that document don’t support.  

We keep searching. As long as Trump occupies the White House, understanding the why of the Trump phenomena will remain an important job for all who care about our politics and our democracy. Any ideas?