CFP 2021: COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S PLAYOFFS -- STORY LINES AND THE SAME OLD STORY

On the last day of 2021, college football presents the semifinals of this season’s

playoffs. Though the CFP may expand and eventually include eight or even 12 teams, for now we have four. Despitetwo first time participants and another that hasn’t won a title, betting people likely see a familiar face – Alabama coach Nick Saban – hoisting the trophy on January 10 in Indianapolis.
                   
December 31’s semifinals match Alabamaagainst path breaking Cincinnati in one game and, in the other, two bluebloods with something to prove. Alabama meets the upstart Bearcats in what’s technically the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas. Georgia and Michigan play the other semi in Miami in a game otherwise known as the Orange Bowl.They’re intriguing contests, but those hoping somebody other than Alabama wins it all probably must wait at least another year. We say “at least” because people who know college football think Alabama will have a better team next year than this year’s edition which struggled through late-season close calls against LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn and lost to Texas A&M.

Alabama-Cincinnati: Thinking the Unthinkable

By beating Georgia in the Southeastern Conference championship game, Alabamaearned the number one seed in the tournament and a game against fourth seeded Cincinnati. The Bearcats broke the glass ceiling by becoming the first Group of Five (American Athletic Conference, Mountain WestConference, Mid-America Conference, Sun Belt Conference, Conference-USA) member picked for the CFP.  Schools in these conferences play solid football, produce NFL prospects, and nurture successful coaches. They play, however, in smaller stadiums, attract less television exposure, and survive on thriftier budgets. When they play a team from the Power Five (Big 10, Pacific 12, Atlantic Coast Conference, Big 12, Southeastern Conference, plus Independent Notre Dame), they usually lose, sometimes by a lot.                                         

But not always. Group of Five teams do beat Power Five teams. Brigham Young, an independent often thought of and comparedwith Group of Five teams, in 2021 posted a 5-0 record against Pac 12 competition.  Cincinnati defeated Notre Dame in South Bend, 24-13, and stopped Big 10 member Indiana in Bloomington, 38-24, at a time the Hoosiers were still getting Top 25 votes.
Cincinnati’s near miss against Georgia in lastyear’s Peach Bowl encourages some in thinking the Bearcats could topple the Tide. Georgia won, 24-21, on a 53-yard field goal with :03 left. Given how that unfolded, and this year’s wins over Indiana and Notre Dame, Cincinnati’s players shouldn’t feel intimidated about facing Alabama.

Despite less than convincing wins over Navy, Tulsa, and Tulane, Cincinnati has talent throughout its lineup.  First, there’s quarterback Desmond Ridder, who hasengineered two straight undefeated regular seasons. Ridder is good enough that some NFL team might make him the first quarterback off the board next April, especially since this quarterback draft class lacks last year’s overall talent and depth. After Ridder, Cincinnati hastwo outstanding cornerbacks – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Coby Bryant. Both are tall and fast and will pose a challenge for the Tide receivers. Alabama likely won’t have the dangerous John Metchie because of a knee injury suffered in the SEC Championship game. Cincinnati, therefore, may have a chance at throttling the Alabama passing game led byHeisman Trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young.  Finally, Cincinnati has athletic, 300-pound linemen who give the Bearcats the look of a high level, Power Five football team.

So, with all this, why is Alabama a two-touchdown favorite? Because Alabama has Nick Saban and Cincinnati doesn’t.

Michigan – Georgia: Exorcists Needed

Aside from the really good teams Michigan and Georgia have and aside from the tradition each represents in college football (Michigan has more victories than any other program), the intrigue around this game centers on the redemption both coaches seek. Before thisyear, Michigan hadn’t been to the CFP (Alabama has missed only once and has won three times). Georgia has been to the CFP, but suffered an excruciating 26-23 overtime loss to Alabama in 2017.

This year, in fact, has been something of a redemption tour for Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh. Brought to Ann Arbor from the NFLwith great fanfare, he’s been seen by many as a disappointment. Until this year’s team took down arch rival Ohio State, Harbaugh had lost to the hated Buckeyes five years in a row. He’s gotten the Wolverines to bowl games, but none in the CFP and not to the Big 10’s cherished consolation prize, the Rose Bowl. Harbaugh can exorcise ghosts by beating Georgia, then take his chances against Alabama, assuming a Tide win in the semifinals.

Georgia’s Kirby Smart occupies the same boat, but for different reasons. He’s won 81% of his games in six seasons in Athens. There’s one problem.  He can’t beat Alabama. Despitetop notch recruiting class after top notch recruiting class, Smart has zero victories over the Tide. This was supposed to be the year he put all that to bed.  Georgia dominated everyone they played – until Alabama. That loss resurrected the old story lines.
                                     

What else can we say? Let the games begin!