STATE OF THE RACE: TWO DOWN AND HOW MANY TO GO?

          

After the New Hampshire presidential primary, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders stands as

the candidate with the most easily imagined nomination scenario. Even if he shouldn’t start writing his acceptance speech, his path appears clearer than any of his rivals. Though voters in only two states have spoken, perhaps we can see a possible outcome.

This situation again illustrates the outsized importance of the first two states --- Iowa and New Hampshire. Despite complaints that their

demographics don’t represent the Democratic electorate, they’ve helped put more than half the initial field on the sidelines, left others barely hanging on, and sent several more toward the door.

The Sanders Path

Because of his ample war chest, filled by small  dollar contributions raised on line, and

his loyal following (the so-called Bernie Bros), Sanders can stay in the race for the long haul. He needs around 30% of the vote in each of the next few contests (he got 26% in New Hampshire). Assuming the

moderates don’t coalesce around one candidate, at that rate, Sanders will outpace the opposition in delegates and keep the money flowing. By mid-March, with the contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Super Tuesday done, Sanders

could have an insurmountable delegate lead, even if he hasn’t formally clinched the nomination.

            

That delegate position would create a real problem for a “Stop Bernie” movement. If he arrives at the convention with two or three times more delegates than any one opponent, an effort by party insiders that might hand someone else the nomination will look unfair and very (small “d”) un-democratic.

Joe Biden’s Desperate Plight

Former Vice President Joe Biden remains in the race, despite dismal showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. He now depends on a strong performance in Nevada (February 22) and an out and out victory in South Carolina a week later, where he counts on support from African-Americans. It’s possible neither happens.

In Nevada, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who trailed Sanders by less

Pete Buttigieg

than two percentage points in New Hampshire, has money and momentum. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, the surprise third place New Hampshire finisher, certainly will make a run

Amy Klobuchar

in Nevada, even if she doesn’t have the money and infrastructure for a win. Any success Buttigieg and Klobuchar have would cost Biden, as might a comeback by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who finished a disappointing fourth in New Hampshire, getting no delegates.

Elizabeth Warren

South Carolina presents a different situation. Neither Buttigieg nor Klobuchar have much

Black Voters

history of attracting black support. Buttigieg’s problems with police issues in South Bend have been well documented. Klobuchar could soon face questions about her Minnesota prosecutorial record. Sanders has never done especially well among African-American voters either, but he has the money and campaign infrastructure for a significant push. Billionaire Tom Steyer remains in the race despite getting less than 4% in New Hampshire. He has invested significantly in South Carolina, both in ads and campaign staff.

Whatever support Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Steyer, or even Warren, generate in South Carolina probably comes mostly at Biden’s expense. Meantime, Sanders seems positioned for getting his share and keeping his momentum, even if he doesn’t win the state.

The Looming Mr. Bloomberg

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, with a personal fortune reported at more than $55 billion, has already spent over $300 million on ads and other promotion since he announced last fall, too late for getting into the early  contests. He’s risen to 17% in one national poll. The Democratic National Committee has changed some rules, soon letting him onto the debate stage.

Anecdotal evidence suggests some black voters might desert the sinking Biden ship for

Bloomberg, despite his stop-and-frisk program in New York. In fairness, Bloomberg can point out positive acts that benefited blacks while he was New York Mayor and since. His television ads featuring glowing praise from President Obama could have a powerful effect. 

Bloomberg’s impact on the race remains

Michael Bloomberg

uncertain. He’s not on the ballot in some states because of his late entry. Support in national polls may not translate into state primary victories and delegates, as Biden now knows so well. Nobody has seen Bloomberg on a presidential debate stage, so how he’ll do is mainly guesswork. But money is the mother’s milk of politics. He has plenty and will spend it.

Where are We?

We started with the fact Bernie Sanders apparently has the most plausible narrative

going forward. Maybe, at this point, he stands as the most likely Democratic nominee. He, however, has challenges too. In Nevada leaders of the powerful culinary workers union remain

nervous  about Sanders and Medicare for all. That union bargained hard for health benefits and many members don’t like the idea of relinquishing them in favor of a government takeover.

More generally, elected Democrats fearful of a standard bearer who embraces the “socialist” label will likely start a vigorous pushback. Since beating somebody with nobody can’t happen, they must find a candidate.

Trump 2020 vs Which Democratic Candidate?

Klobuchar? Buttigieg? The campaign Trump might run against either gives some Democrats pause. Klobuchar, fairly or not, bears the burden of Hillary Clinton’s loss. Trump probably relishes the idea of facing another woman he can insult. Many Americans believe Buttigieg’s sexual orientation isn’t fair game. Trump probably isn’t one of them. Bloomberg?  As we said, he has money but remains untested. Despite the fact New Hampshire provided some clarity and direction, this isn’t over.

The turmoil in the Justice Department over

Trump’s latest intervention into a sentencing recommendation illustrated the corruption and rot in  his presidency, and the need for removing him. The election now represents the only

chance. Whoever Democrats pick, they must get it right.