Recent History
The two recent impeachment cases involving Richard Nixon in 1974 and Bill Clinton in 1998 raise questions related to what might bring about Trump’s impeachment and when. Nixon faced a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress, but he could have avoided conviction if enough Senate Republicans had stayed with him, since conviction requires a two-thirds vote. Republican control of both the House and Senate, at least until the 2018 elections, represents a major obstacle to impeaching Trump. The effort to remove Clinton never had much chance because, though passage of a resolution by the House was not in doubt, hardly anyone believed the Senate would convict. Similarly, Trump can survive as long as 34 Republican senators stick with him.
The two recent impeachment cases involving Richard Nixon in 1974 and Bill Clinton in 1998 raise questions related to what might bring about Trump’s impeachment and when. Nixon faced a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress, but he could have avoided conviction if enough Senate Republicans had stayed with him, since conviction requires a two-thirds vote. Republican control of both the House and Senate, at least until the 2018 elections, represents a major obstacle to impeaching Trump. The effort to remove Clinton never had much chance because, though passage of a resolution by the House was not in doubt, hardly anyone believed the Senate would convict. Similarly, Trump can survive as long as 34 Republican senators stick with him.
One View
Having acknowledged the history and the potential difficulty of removing Trump from office, Woodson still believes it will happen within the next year. He says, “Donald Trump’s behavior is more egregious than the behavior of either Nixon or Clinton. Donald Trump is a Kleptocrat. We are less than 60 days into his presidency and already his choice for National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, has resigned under a cloud of treasonous suspicion for working as a foreign agent while serving in the Trump administration. I think Trump knew. I think it will be proven that the Trump campaign staff was in collusion with the Russians in the 2016 Presidential election. I think Trump knew. Trump has been involved with the construction of a hotel in a foreign country that was partly financed by the Iranian Revolutionary Army, when Iran was declared a terrorist state. I think Trump knew."
"Trump has done dirty business with members of the Russian oligarchy, in one instance selling a property to one oligarch for 100 million dollars that Trump had just purchased for 40 million dollars. No property appreciates in value that fast. His daughter, Ivanka, and son- in- law Jared Kushner, continue to do business with foreign countries while sitting in on foreign policy meetings with Trump. I think Trump is certain to be found guilty of running afoul of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, both prior to and during his presidency. Trump’s denigration of democratic institutions – the federal judiciary, federal judges, investigative agencies, and a free press – has already injured the foundation of this democracy and major western democracies around the world."
Having acknowledged the history and the potential difficulty of removing Trump from office, Woodson still believes it will happen within the next year. He says, “Donald Trump’s behavior is more egregious than the behavior of either Nixon or Clinton. Donald Trump is a Kleptocrat. We are less than 60 days into his presidency and already his choice for National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, has resigned under a cloud of treasonous suspicion for working as a foreign agent while serving in the Trump administration. I think Trump knew. I think it will be proven that the Trump campaign staff was in collusion with the Russians in the 2016 Presidential election. I think Trump knew. Trump has been involved with the construction of a hotel in a foreign country that was partly financed by the Iranian Revolutionary Army, when Iran was declared a terrorist state. I think Trump knew."
"Trump has done dirty business with members of the Russian oligarchy, in one instance selling a property to one oligarch for 100 million dollars that Trump had just purchased for 40 million dollars. No property appreciates in value that fast. His daughter, Ivanka, and son- in- law Jared Kushner, continue to do business with foreign countries while sitting in on foreign policy meetings with Trump. I think Trump is certain to be found guilty of running afoul of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, both prior to and during his presidency. Trump’s denigration of democratic institutions – the federal judiciary, federal judges, investigative agencies, and a free press – has already injured the foundation of this democracy and major western democracies around the world."
“It is just
a matter of time before the few statesmen that we have left in Congress – Chuck
Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Lindsey Graham, and John McCain – will decide that the
future of democracy as we know it is at risk and decide to do something about
it. They will have to wait a little
while longer, for public opinion to turn, before they can act. But, act they
will. Trump’s assault on the ACA and health care, to the detriment of his base,
will certainly hasten the deterioration of his popularity with his base. As of this writing, his disapproval rating is
at 54% and climbing. Sure, Republicans
will have to abandon their hopes of passing much of the legislation that they
have waited years to pass. But it will
become increasingly clear to them that the choice is between a short term goal
of getting a Republican agenda passed and preserving democracy. I am betting
that the choice will be to preserve democracy.”
Different Views
Henry and Rob don’t see it that way, despite how much they’d like to see Woodson’s prediction of a year one impeachment come true. Rob, for example, holds out some hope Democrats can win back the House in 2018, giving them the levers of power in the lower chamber. If that happened, an impeachment resolution theoretically could get out of committee in 2019. With a Democratic majority, it might pass. If Trump’s bad acts are serious enough, his support in the Senate could collapse, as Nixon’s did, with Republican senators scurrying to save their own skins instead of going down with a sinking ship. They would have to calculate that doing otherwise would assure their own political destruction. Rob can at least see this scenario after 2018, if a lot of things come together.
Henry and Rob don’t see it that way, despite how much they’d like to see Woodson’s prediction of a year one impeachment come true. Rob, for example, holds out some hope Democrats can win back the House in 2018, giving them the levers of power in the lower chamber. If that happened, an impeachment resolution theoretically could get out of committee in 2019. With a Democratic majority, it might pass. If Trump’s bad acts are serious enough, his support in the Senate could collapse, as Nixon’s did, with Republican senators scurrying to save their own skins instead of going down with a sinking ship. They would have to calculate that doing otherwise would assure their own political destruction. Rob can at least see this scenario after 2018, if a lot of things come together.
Henry sits
back with some amusement, and angst, at this and concludes that while Trump
will do something (or already has and we don’t know about it yet) meriting
impeachment, the odds are just too long. The congressional math doesn’t add up
and probably won’t before most of America concludes that finding the right
candidate to run against Trump in 2020 represents a better use of time, energy,
and resources than trying to impeach him.
Henry also thinks too many people “put two and two together and get
five,” meaning Trump’s disinformation campaign has succeeded well enough that
he can hold onto sufficient public support to stay in office until the
electorate kicks him out the old fashioned way.
Your turn.
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