The week since the New Hampshire primary has made clear the peril for the Democratic Party in the 2020 campaign. Despite facing a just-impeached president with historically low approval ratings and an endless list of bad acts proving his unfitness for office, many justifiably fear seeing him re-elected. The complex and simple reasons behind this implicate some of America’s most enduring biases.
Coming out of the botched Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire
primary, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders became the narrow front runner. In Iowa, he tied former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Sanders won New Hampshire by two points over Buttigieg and a few more over surging Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar.
Sanders leads in polls heading into the February 22 Nevada caucuses. He has the money and infrastructure for sustaining that advantage. In South Carolina, which votes February 29, he’s moved into second behind teetering former Vice President Joe Biden. If Sanders wins Nevada, then finishes a strong second in South Carolina (or wins), he could have put himself into position for taking the nomination.
Or would he? Sanders didn’t break 30% percent in Iowa or New Hampshire. It’s not clear he can in Nevada or South Carolina, even with victories. Given the nature of his appeal and national polling, which shows his support at around 25%, it isn’t likely Sanders will crack 30% many places unless the field winnows. That brings us to…
Billions
Former New York Mayor and multi-billionaire Michael Bloomberg has risen
to double digits in national polls and gotten on the debate stage by spending almost $400 million on advertising and staff, much of it in Super Tuesday states that vote March 3 (he’s not
on the ballot in Nevada or South Carolina).
He’s come under increasing scrutiny as he’s risen. Bloomberg’s record offers targets like his racist stop-and-frisk policy in New York and sexist comments like
suggesting women spend time in libraries instead of shopping if they want professional respect.
Whether Bloomberg’s billions immunize
him against negative impact from his past policies and statements became the subject of intense commentary as he rose in the polls. In the age of Trump who, of course, has made worse statements and promoted policies more damaging to women and people of color, some Democrats simply ignore
Bloomberg’s impolitic record. They recognize he’s with them on issues like climate change and guns and love the campaign infrastructure his money can buy for the general election. Which brings us to…
Baggage
The 2020 campaign has made clear almost all the contenders, including Bloomberg, bring arguably disqualifying baggage. That’s apparent for candidates who remain and some who’ve dropped out.
California Senator Kamala Harris, who is African-American, never caught on with
black voters, partly because of suspicions about her prosecutorial record. Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick,
aside from starting too late, got tainted by his association with Wall Street. New Jersey Senator Corey Booker suffered from the same problem. Alleged connections with Russia dogged Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard
(she’s suing Hillary Clinton over a charge that she was a “Russian asset”).
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| Kamala Harris |
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| Deval Patrick |
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| Cory Booker |
Of the remaining viable candidates, Bloomberg’s mayoral record could undo him. Klobuchar now must answer for prosecutorial decisions she made in Minnesota. Opposition research fuels politics now and no perfect candidate exists.
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| Caption - NY Times 2/11/2020 |
Chromosomes
With the turmoil in the race – Biden
falling apart, the weakness of Sanders as a front runner, Bloomberg’s baggage – it might seem Klobuchar or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren would have emerged as a consensus candidate. It’s true both have individual challenges. Warren stumbled over-explaining the cost of Medicare for all and Klobuchar lacks money and name recognition in some places.
The New York Times endorsed both. Each has a stellar record, though they offer different strengths and experiences. Both brim with intelligence and decency. Neither appears to have been touched by scandal.
They’re women! The specter of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 defeat looms over both. With many Democratic voters worried more about “electability” than policies and ideology, we fear both Warren and Klobuchar have been disadvantaged by the concern – rational or not – that a
woman can’t beat President Donald Trump. We aren’t endorsing that idea. But we suspect it’s out there, even though Clinton won nearly three million more votes than Trump. Which brings us to…
Genes
Most Americans now believe homosexuality isn’t a choice. They
believe people are born gay or lesbian as others are born straight. The notion people decide they’ll become gay has been out of favor for a while. If being gay is one of those immutable characteristics of life like race – something none of us can change about ourselves – no justification exists for denying gay and lesbian people rights and opportunities. We wouldn’t see one even if being gay were a choice.
Buttigieg is the first serious openly gay presidential candidate. Many reasons exist for not supporting him – his tone-
deaf handling of racial issues in his city, his inexperience, maybe even his campaign fundraising tactics. His sexual orientation isn’t a reason for opposing him.
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| Buttigieg & spouse Chasten |
We sense, however, that’s happening. We see the same dynamic as with the female candidates. Democratic voters otherwise attracted to Buttigieg shy away out of fear America won’t elect a gay president. Recent signals from right-wing commentator Rush Limbaugh suggesting Buttigieg’s sexual orientation is fair game heighten that concern.
So that’s the state of the Democratic race as Nevada and South Carolina vote. It’s not a pretty picture for Democrats, which means it’s not a pretty picture for an America desperately in need of ridding itself of Trump and the autocratic state he’s creating.