In 2018, the United States has its most intriguing, and
important, mid-term elections in years. The big storyline resides in Democratic
efforts to take control of the House of Representatives,
potentially setting
the stage for impeaching President Donald Trump. But, in the states, an historic circumstance
has developed that could equal the House races in long term political significance.
Three black candidates – two men and one woman – stand as Democratic nominees
for governorships. In a nation that has elected only two African American
governors, that circumstance makes this a remarkable moment in the country’s 242-year
history – even if none of them win. What
does this mean in the era of Donald Trump and the rise of white
nationalism? Is this a backlash against
Trump? Can black candidates win statewide office in this environment?
Photo Credit: CNN.com |
The Candidates
Stacey Abrams of Georgia
– We devoted an
earlier post to her candidacy, so we’ll limit our comments now to the fact
her race against Republican Brian
Kemp remains a tossup. The latest polling shows a dead heat.
Andrew Gillum of Florida
– Gillum, the mayor
of Tallahassee, shocked his state and the nation by winning the August 28 primary
over better-known, better-financed candidates. He defeated onetime
Congresswoman Gwen Graham, the daughter of former Florida Governor and Senator
Bob Graham, and billionaire real estate developer Jeff Greene. Like Abrams,
Gillum ran a decidedly progressive campaign, winning backing from Vermont Senator
Bernie Sanders,
despite attending the 2016 Democratic National Convention as a Hillary Clinton
delegate. Gillum advocates a single payer health care system, LGBTQ rights, and
stronger gun safety regulations. The early polling shows him essentially even
with Republican Ron
DeSantis, a Trump-backed Congressman who threw the race into early turmoil
by admonishing voters not to “monkey up” Florida by electing Gillum.
Ben Jealous of Maryland – Because Abrams and Gillum are running
in southern states, Jealous, former president of the NAACP, hasn’t gotten as much
attention. Maryland, decidedly blue at
the presidential and senatorial levels, has an incumbent Republican governor, Larry Hogan, who’s far ahead
of Jealous in early polling and fundraising. Jealous has some catching up to do
but, because Maryland usually leans Democratic, he may still have a chance.
The History
History doesn’t favor any of these
three candidates. Four blacks have served as governors of American states, only
two of them elected in their own right. Doug Wilder became the country’s
first elected black governor when he won in Virginia in 1989. State law limited
him to one term. Deval
Patrick won the Massachusetts governor’s office in 2006 and reelection in 2010.
He retired after two terms. Patrick gets mentioned as a possibility for
national office but, so far, he hasn’t pursued the idea.
Two other African Americans have served as governors upon
being elevated from lieutenant governorships.
Pinckney
Pinchback filled the Louisiana governor’s chair for about a month --
December 9, 1872, to January 13, 1873. David Paterson occupied
the New York governor’s office between March 17, 2008, and December 31, 2010.
He’d been New York’s Lt. Governor before Elliot
Spitzer’s scandal-induced resignation.
This dearth of black governors, and the fact only six African
Americans have ever been popularly elected to United States Senate seats,
demonstrates the difficulty African Americans have had in winning statewide
office. Blacks regularly get elected to House seats, and not just in black
majority districts. But, statewide races
remain a tough nut to crack. The 2018 races in Georgia, Florida, and Maryland
offer hope, but not guarantees, of electoral success this year.
The Problem and the
Opportunity
White racism might seem an easy explanation for the
difficulty African American candidates have had in winning statewide races.
Many white voters just won’t vote for a black candidate, this theory goes, a
notion perhaps undermined by Barack Obama’s election
to the Presidency. Gerrymandering a state by packing black voters into compact
districts, thereby making black victories easier, isn’t possible. No doubt the
white racism problem partly explains what’s happened, but like most things in
American politics, a more complex story tells the entire tale. Fund raising
difficulties, especially lack of access to big-money donors, limited
ideological and cultural appeal across a broad electorate, and low voter
turnout in minority areas, especially in non-presidential years, probably all
contribute.
This year, none of those factors need impede Abrams, Gillum, or
Jealous. Abrams, in particular, has
already shown considerable prowess in raising money through small donations, especially
online. Gillum’s primary win got him an immediate fund raising boost, with about
two million dollars pouring in over just a few days. Presumably, Gillum now has
a much better fund raising list. Jealous hasn’t done as well at fund raising.
He had $9 million less than his GOP opponent two months from the election.
Still, he’s patterned his campaign after Sanders and presumably knows the small
donor fundraising techniques.
The gubernatorial opportunities presented in the 2018
elections give black Americans a chance at becoming more fully invested in
American democracy. Those opportunities,
however, illustrate two things African Americans and progressives must do to
take full advantage: (1) contribute to candidates of their choice and (2) vote.
It’s really not much more complicated.